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Book
Stretching and exploiting thresholds for high-order war
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ISBN: 0833095447 0833090445 9780833090447 9780833095442 Year: 2016 Publisher: Santa Monica, Calif.

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"U.S. thresholds for high-order conventional and nuclear war are diffuse and dynamic, differ across regions, and are hard to enforce. Since 9/11, three of the primary nation-state competitors to the United States--Russia, China, and Iran--have successfully exploited or stretched U.S. thresholds for high-order war in order to further their strategic ends and, in the process, undermine U.S. interests. Each of these countries has made expert use of some combination of measures short of war, including economic leverage, terrorism, limited military incursions, aggressive diplomacy, and covert action, to enact its strategies. Some argue that these actions constitute a new international order, or perhaps a new way of war. They do not: Use of measures short of war is time-tested nation-state behavior. U.S. policymakers and military service leaders would benefit from additional consideration of these measures, how they are used against the United States, and how they might be defended against and exploited to further U.S. strategic interests"--Publisher's description.

Keywords

Low-intensity conflicts (Military science) --- Conflicts, Low-intensity (Military science) --- Low-intensity operations (Military science) --- Low-level conflicts (Military science) --- Operations, Low-intensity (Military science) --- Small wars --- Wars, Small --- Limited war --- 2000-2099 --- United States --- United States. --- Military policy --- History --- Foreign relations --- AB --- ABSh --- Ameerika Ühendriigid --- America (Republic) --- Amerika Birlăshmish Shtatlary --- Amerika Birlăşmi Ştatları --- Amerika Birlăşmiş Ştatları --- Amerika ka Kelenyalen Jamanaw --- Amerika Qūrama Shtattary --- Amerika Qŭshma Shtatlari --- Amerika Qushma Shtattary --- Amerika (Republic) --- Amerikai Egyesült Államok --- Amerikanʹ Veĭtʹsėndi͡avks Shtattn --- Amerikări Pĕrleshu̇llĕ Shtatsem --- Amerikas Forenede Stater --- Amerikayi Miatsʻyal Nahangner --- Ameriketako Estatu Batuak --- Amirika Carékat --- AQSh --- Ar. ha-B. --- Arhab --- Artsot ha-Berit --- Artzois Ha'bris --- Bí-kok --- Ē.P.A. --- EE.UU. --- Egyesült Államok --- ĒPA --- Estados Unidos --- Estados Unidos da América do Norte --- Estados Unidos de América --- Estaos Xuníos --- Estaos Xuníos d'América --- Estatos Unitos --- Estatos Unitos d'America --- Estats Units d'Amèrica --- Ètats-Unis d'Amèrica --- États-Unis d'Amérique --- Fareyniḳṭe Shṭaṭn --- Feriene Steaten --- Feriene Steaten fan Amearika --- Forente stater --- FS --- Hēnomenai Politeiai Amerikēs --- Hēnōmenes Politeies tēs Amerikēs --- Hiwsisayin Amerikayi Miatsʻeal Tērutʻiwnkʻ --- Istadus Unidus --- Jungtinės Amerikos valstybės --- Mei guo --- Mei-kuo --- Meiguo --- Mî-koet --- Miatsʻyal Nahangner --- Miguk --- Na Stàitean Aonaichte --- NSA --- S.U.A. --- SAD --- Saharat ʻAmērik --- SASht --- Severo-Amerikanskie Shtaty --- Severo-Amerikanskie Soedinennye Shtaty --- Si͡evero-Amerikanskīe Soedinennye Shtaty --- Sjedinjene Američke Države --- Soedinennye Shtaty Ameriki --- Soedinennye Shtaty Severnoĭ Ameriki --- Soedinennye Shtaty Si͡evernoĭ Ameriki --- Spojené obce severoamerick --- Spojené staty americk --- SShA --- Stadoù-Unanet Amerika --- Stáit Aontaithe Mheirice --- Stany Zjednoczone --- Stati Uniti --- Stati Uniti d'America --- Stâts Unîts --- Stâts Unîts di Americhe --- Steatyn Unnaneysit --- Steatyn Unnaneysit America --- SUA --- Sŭedineni amerikanski shtati --- Sŭedinenite shtati --- Tetã peteĩ reko Amérikagua --- U.S. --- U.S.A. --- United States of America --- Unol Daleithiau --- Unol Daleithiau America --- Unuiĝintaj Ŝtatoj de Ameriko --- US --- USA --- Usono --- Vaeinigte Staatn --- Vaeinigte Staatn vo Amerika --- Vereinigte Staaten --- Vereinigte Staaten von Amerika --- Verenigde State van Amerika --- Verenigde Staten --- VS --- VSA --- Wááshindoon Bikéyah Ałhidadiidzooígí --- Wilāyāt al-Muttaḥidah --- Wilāyāt al-Muttaḥidah al-Amirīkīyah --- Wilāyāt al-Muttaḥidah al-Amrīkīyah --- Yhdysvallat --- Yunaeted Stet --- Yunaeted Stet blong Amerika --- ZDA --- Združene države Amerike --- Zʹi͡ednani Derz͡havy Ameryky --- Zjadnośone staty Ameriki --- Zluchanyi͡a Shtaty Ameryki --- Zlucheni Derz͡havy --- ZSA --- ABŞ --- Amerikanʹ Veĭtʹsėndi︠a︡vks Shtattnė --- Saharat ʻAmērikā --- Si︠e︡vero-Amerikanskīe Soedinennye Shtaty --- Soedinennye Shtaty Si︠e︡vernoĭ Ameriki --- Spojené obce severoamerické --- Spojené staty americké --- Stáit Aontaithe Mheiriceá --- SUA (Stati Uniti d'America) --- Wááshindoon Bikéyah Ałhidadiidzooígíí --- Zʹi︠e︡dnani Derz︠h︡avy Ameryky --- Zluchanyi︠a︡ Shtaty Ameryki --- Zlucheni Derz︠h︡avy --- Η.Π.Α. --- Ηνωμένες Πολιτείες της Αμερικής --- Америка (Republic) --- Американь Вейтьсэндявкс Штаттнэ --- Америкӑри Пӗрлешӳллӗ Штатсем --- САЩ --- Съединените щати --- Злучаныя Штаты Амерыкі --- ولايات المتحدة --- ولايات المتّحدة الأمريكيّة --- ولايات المتحدة الامريكية --- 미국 --- États-Unis --- É.-U. --- ÉU --- Amerikanʹ Veĭtʹsėndi͡avks Shtattnė


Book
From negative to positive stability
Authors: ---
ISBN: 0833093479 0833090879 9780833093479 9780833090874 Year: 2015 Publisher: Santa Monica, Calif. RAND

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"As of late 2014, many American and Jordanian experts believe Jordan to be stable. Yet while Jordan is stable, it faces a range of existing and emerging challenges. These include chronic unemployment, sporadic political unrest, budget deficits, a water shortage, and geographically isolated yet troubling internal security concerns. The Syrian refugee crisis both exacerbates these challenges and offers opportunities to the government of Jordan. If the Syrian refugees remain relatively content and continue to assimilate into northern and central Jordan, they might directly benefit the Jordanian economy by stimulating growth. Donors and lenders have increased their support to Jordan, in turn offering the government an opportunity to improve the lives of both Syrian refugees and Jordanian citizens. Most important, Jordan benefits from what one expert terms negative stability: Jordanian citizens might be dissatisfied with many aspects of their government, but the chaos in neighboring states has thus far dissuaded Jordanians from pursuing civil or violent actions that might destabilize Jordan. Jordanians do not want their country to look like Syria, Iraq, or Egypt. Jordan is likely to undergo further and perhaps unforeseen challenges in 2015 and 2016, but it has the opportunity to alleviate many of its enduring challenges. If Jordan wisely invests forthcoming international refugee support, it has the opportunity to shift popular outlook from negative to positive--and more optimistic--stability. This report's analytic forecasts should help the United States determine how to support Jordan as it faces the Syrian refugee crisis"--Publisher's description.

Keywords

Refugees --- Forced migration --- Humanitarian assistance --- National security --- International relief --- Emigration and immigration law --- Economic history. --- Emigration and immigration law. --- Forced migration. --- Humanitarian assistance. --- International relief. --- National security. --- Refugees. --- Social conditions. --- Civil War (Syria : 2011-) --- 2000 - 2099 --- Syria --- Jordan --- Jordan. --- Syria. --- History --- Economic conditions --- Social conditions --- Displaced persons --- Persons --- National security policy --- NSP (National security policy) --- Security policy, National --- Economic policy --- International relations --- Military policy --- Grants-in-aid, International --- International grants-in-aid --- Relief (Aid) --- Relief, International --- Charities --- Economic assistance --- Public welfare --- Humanitarian aid --- Cleansing, Ethnic --- Compulsory resettlement --- Ethnic cleansing --- Ethnic purification --- Involuntary resettlement --- Migration, Forced --- Purification, Ethnic --- Relocation, Forced --- Resettlement, Involuntary --- Migration, Internal --- Emigration and immigration --- Immigrants --- Immigration law --- Law, Emigration --- Law, Immigration --- International travel regulations --- History, Economic --- Economics --- Government policy --- Law and legislation --- Legal status, laws, etc. --- Arabska Republika Syryjska --- Aravikē Dēmokratia tēs Syrias --- Fédération des États de Syrie --- Ittiḥād al-Duwal al-Sūrīyah --- Jumhuriya al-Arabya as-Suriya --- Jumhūrīyah al-ʻArabīyah al-Sūrīyah --- Jumhūriyyah al-ʻArabiyyah as-Sūriyyah --- R.A.S. --- RAS --- Repubblica Araba Siriana --- Republiḳah ha-ʻArvit ha-Surit --- République arabe syrienne --- SAR --- Shiria --- Siria --- Sirii͡ --- Siriĭskai͡a Arabskai͡a Respublika --- Siriĭskata arabska republika --- Siryi͡ --- Siryĭskai͡a Arabskai͡a Rėspublika --- Sowria --- Suryah --- Syrian Arab Republic --- Syrie --- Syrien --- Syrii͡ --- Syriĭsʹka Arabsʹka respublika --- Syrische Arabische Republik --- United Arab Republic --- Xuliya --- Giordania --- Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan --- Hashimite Kingdom of the Jordan --- Jordania --- Jordanien --- Mamlaka al-Urduniya al-Hashemiyah --- Mamlakah al-Urdunīyah al-Hāshimīyah --- Transjordan --- Urdun --- Urdunn --- Yarden


Book
How insurgencies end
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1282797247 9786612797248 0833049836 0833049526 9780833049834 9780833049520 9781282797246 Year: 2010 Publisher: Santa Monica, Calif. RAND

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RAND studied 89 modern insurgency cases to test conventional understanding about how insurgencies end. Findings relevant to policymakers and analysts include that modern insurgencies last about ten years; withdrawal of state support cripples insurgencies; civil defense forces are useful for both sides; pseudodemocracies fare poorly against insurgents; and governments win more often in the long run.


Book
The Future of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces: Lessons from Historical Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration Efforts
Authors: --- ---
Year: 2023 Publisher: RAND Corporation

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The Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) played a critical role in the fight against the Islamic State. But this paramilitary force now represents a challenge to civil-military relations because many PMF fighters remain loyal to their former commanders despite being formally integrated into the Iraqi armed forces in 2016. Furthermore, because many of these militias retain ties to Iran, the PMF's integration into Iraq's security services provides Iran with a new opportunity to undermine U.S. interests and subvert Iraq's struggling democratic government. Addressing the challenges posed by the PMF will be essential to the success of any U.S. strategy in Iraq and the broader Middle East. In this report, the authors examine lessons learned from previous efforts toward disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) of former combatants and militia forces to inform U.S. government policy on the PMF. They analyze historic DDR programming to assess whether a U.S.-supported DDR effort in Iraq might succeed, examining internationally supported DDR programs from 1979 to 2010. This historical analysis indicates that DDR that is focused on the PMF will be extremely difficult unless linked to complementary security sector reform and political reforms that provide greater inclusion. While reducing Iranian-backed PMF power and influence might be beneficial to the United States, a policy that seeks to force that reduction might, in fact, have the opposite effect.

Keywords


Book
Assessing freedom of movement for counterinsurgency campaigns
Authors: ---
ISBN: 0833077775 0833059068 9780833077776 9780833059062 Year: 2012 Publisher: Santa Monica, CA RAND


Book
Embracing the fog of war
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 0833068407 0833058150 9780833068408 9780833068385 0833068385 9780833058157 Year: 2012 Publisher: Santa Monica, CA RAND

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The unpredictable counterinsurgency environment challenges centralized, quantitative campaign assessment. A comprehensive examination of the centralized, quantitative approach to assessment, as described in the literature and doctrine and applied in two primary case studies (Vietnam and Afghanistan), reveals weaknesses and gaps and proposes an alternative process: contextual assessment.


Book
Modeling, simulation, and operations analysis in Afghanistan and Iraq
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 0833084704 9780833084705 9780833082114 0833082116 Year: 2014 Publisher: Santa Monica, CA RAND Corporation

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RAND conducted a lessons learned examination of operations analysis, modeling, and simulation in support of Operation Enduring Freedom and Operation Iraqi Freedom. This report identifies ways in which analysts have attempted to support commanders' decisions in counterinsurgency and irregular warfare, describes many of the models and tools they employed, provides insight into the challenges they faced, and suggests ways in which the application of modeling, simulation, and analysis might be improved for current and future operations. RAND identified four broad categories of decisions: force protection, logistics, campaign assessment, and force structuring. Modeling, simulation, and analysis were most effective in supporting force protection and logistics decisions, and least effective in supporting campaign assessment and force structuring.

Keywords

Counterinsurgency --- Irregular warfare --- Soldiers --- Logistics --- Military planning --- Decision making --- Operations research --- Afghan War, 2001 --- -Iraq War, 2003-2011 --- Military Science - General --- Military & Naval Science --- Law, Politics & Government --- Simulation methods --- Evaluation --- Protection --- Computer simulation --- Anglo-American Invasion of Iraq, 2003-2011 --- Dawn, Operation New, 2010-2011 --- Gulf War II, 2003-2011 --- Iraqi Freedom, Operation, 2003-2010 --- New Dawn, Operation, 2010-2011 --- Operation Iraqi Freedom, 2003-2010 --- Operation New Dawn, 2010-2011 --- Operation Telic, 2003-2011 --- Persian Gulf War, 2003-2011 --- Telic, Operation, 2003-2011 --- Operational analysis --- Operational research --- Deciding --- Decision (Psychology) --- Decision analysis --- Decision processes --- Making decisions --- Management --- Management decisions --- War planning --- Armed Forces personnel --- Members of the Armed Forces --- Military personnel --- Military service members --- Service members --- Servicemen, Military --- IW (Irregular warfare) --- Unconventional warfare --- Counterguerrilla warfare --- War on Terrorism, 2001-2009 --- Operation Enduring Freedom, 2001 --- -War on Terrorism, 2001-2009 --- Industrial engineering --- Management science --- Research --- System theory --- Choice (Psychology) --- Problem solving --- Military administration --- Military policy --- Planning --- Military art and science --- Armed Forces --- War --- Guerrilla warfare --- Insurgency --- -Operation Enduring Freedom, 2001 --- Afghan War, 2001-2021 --- Iraq War, 2003-2011


Book
Iraqi Army will to fight : a will-to-fight case study with lessons for Western security force assistance
Authors: --- --- ---
ISBN: 9781977405074 Year: 2022 Publisher: Santa Monica, Calif. RAND Corporation

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In summer 2014, less than three years after the United States withdrew its military forces from Iraq, the Iraqi Army imploded, breaking and scattering in the face of attacks from Islamic State fighters. A consensus emerged that the Iraqi Army collapsed because it had no will to fight. But why did the Iraqi Army lack will to fight? And, going forward, what can U.S. advisors do to help strengthen Iraqi Army will to fight and overall combat effectiveness? In this report, Ben Connable applies RAND's analytic model of will to fight to the regular Iraqi Army, conducting three historical case studies: the 1980–1988 Iran-Iraq War, the 1991 Gulf War, and the 2004–2011 military advisory period. A main finding is that the Iraqi Army units tend to be brittle: They are capable of fighting effectively, but they are inflexible and break too easily. There is no single-factor explanation for this brittleness. Efforts to change it will need to focus on numerous underlying factors, and Connable provides specific recommendations for the U.S. security force assistance mission in Iraq. This report also serves an example of how the RAND will-to-fight model, detailed in Will to Fight: Analyzing, Modeling, and Simulating the Will to Fight of Military Units (Connable et al., 2018), can be tailored to specific cases and improved upon.


Book
Sectarianism in the Middle East : implications for the United States

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"Present unrest in the Middle East has many causes and takes on many forms. A collective sense of disenfranchisement, inadequate governance, geopolitical discord, and religious extremism all contribute to the conflicts in Iraq, Iran, Syria, Yemen, and Libya. Many Western observers and policymakers view unrest in the Middle East through the lens of binary religious sectarianism, focusing on the divisions between Sunni and Shi'a Muslims. This split is most clearly articulated in the geopolitical competition between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and it plays out through violence in Iraq and Syria. But the complexities of human identity and of regional culture and history do not lend themselves to this arguably too-simplistic interpretation of the situation. The authors analyze sectarianism in the region, evaluate other factors that fan the flames of violent conflict, and suggest a different interpretation of both identity and the nature of regional unrest"--Back cover.


Book
Russia's Limit of Advance: Scenarios
Authors: --- --- --- --- --- et al.
Year: 2020 Publisher: Santa Monica, Calif. RAND Corporation

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By the time it invaded Crimea in 2014, Russia seemed to have regained a significant portion of the military power it lost after the fall of the Soviet Union, reemerging as a perceived threat to democracy. But how capable is Russia of deploying and sustaining ground combat forces farther from its borders? An analysis of notional ground deployment scenarios constructed from real-world, open-source data, along with a review of historical cases spanning the Soviet and post-Soviet eras, reveals strengths and limitations of Russia's military infrastructure. In fact, despite Russia's status as a reemerging global military power, its ground force deployment capability is strong only near its western border and within range of its air defenses. Although it poses a credible threat to Eastern Europe, its ability to deploy ground combat units drops off sharply as geographic distance increases. Limited forces and transportation assets, a lack of international support, and an insufficient ability to sustain its deployed forces also prevent Russia from regaining its Soviet-era deployment capacity. This report presents additional detail on the notional scenarios that informed the analysis of Russian ground force deployment capabilities. The scenarios range from border deployments to long-range overseas deployments and were designed to test the limits of Russia's capacity to deploy forces and equipment. They were not necessarily chosen to reflect the probability or political feasibility of an actual Russian deployment.

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