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Book
What Drives Household Borrowing and Credit Constraints? Evidence from Bosnia and Herzegovina
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462394132 1452719810 128284153X 1451870604 9786612841538 Year: 2008 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

Although Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) has experienced rapid growth in credit to households in recent years, most individuals are still credit constrained. This paper analyzes the determinants of household credit demand and credit constraints in BiH. To our knowledge, it is the first study on this topic employing household survey data (2001 and 2004) from Emerging Europe. Our results highlight the impact of the post-conflict and transitional nature of the country on the behavior of borrowers and lenders. As expected, age, income, wealth and education qualifications are the main factors driving credit market participation, while high income and high wealth lower credit constraints. In BiH, the probability of credit market participation peaks at 45 years old, considerably higher than in the advanced countries. At the same time, older individuals are significantly more constrained than their peers in the advanced countries. The results imply that the current credit boom may largely reflect the overall post-war demand, and indicate the worse-off position of the older generation in transition economy. Moreover, the results underscore the structural nature of unemployment as well as the mismatch between education qualifications and earning prospects in BiH. Education variables have no significant effect on the likelihood of being constrained, while, unlike in the advanced countries, being unemployed significantly increases the likelihood.


Book
Assessing China’s Corporate Sector Vulnerabilities
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1484309634 1484309057 Year: 2015 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper documents and assesses the risk stemming from rising corporate indebtedness in China using a firm-level dataset of listed firms. It finds that while leverage on average is not high, there is a fat tail of highly leveraged firms accounting for a significant share of total corporate debt, mainly concentrated in the real estate and construction sector and state-owned enterprises in general. The real estate and construction firms tend to face lower borrowing costs and could withstand a modest increase of interest rate shocks despite their high leverage. The corporate sector is however vulnerable to a significant slowdown in the real estate and construction sector. Our sensitivity analysis suggests that the share of debt that would be in financial distress would rise to about a quarter of total listed firm debt in the event of a 20 percent decline in real estate and construction profits.


Book
Implications of quasi-fiscal activities in Ghana
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1451862849 1462317537 1451908202 9786613824875 1452793549 1283512424 Year: 2006 Publisher: [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, IMF Institute,

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This paper assesses the scope and coverage of quasi-fiscal activities (QFAs) in Ghana. We find that while QFAs have been reduced recently, they remain significant. The extensive nature of these activities has several macroeconomic and structural policy implications. An extended measure of public sector operations, including QFAs, presents a clearer picture of Ghana's fiscal stance and fiscal adjustment from one for the central government alone; QFAs have led to serious distortions in energy and water consumption; and they have distorted the investment decisions of both public enterprises and the private sector.


Book
Impact of the great recession on emerging markets
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 1462322433 1455289019 1283565439 9786613877888 1455209953 Year: 2010 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

This paper examines the impact of the recent global crisis on emerging market economies (EMs). Our cross-country analysis shows that the impact of the crisis was more pronounced in those EMs that had initial weaker fundamentals and greater financial and trade linkages. This effect is observed along a number of dimensions, such as growth, stock market performance, sovereign spreads, and credit growth. This paper also shows that during this crisis, pre-crisis reserve holdings helped to mitigate the initial growth collapse. This finding contrasts with other studies that fail to find a significant relationship between reserves and the growth decline. This paper argues that our preferred measure of impact is a more accurate reflection of the true impact of the crisis on EMs.


Book
Financial Distortions in China : A General Equilibrium Approach
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 1513589091 1513503898 1513582798 Year: 2015 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Widespread implicit guarantees and interest ceilings were major distortions in China’s financial system, contributing to a misallocation of resources. We analyze the impact of removing such frictions in a general equilibrium setting. The results show that comprehensive reforms generate better outcomes than partial ones: removing the deposit rate ceiling alone increases output, but the efficiency of capital allocation does not improve. Removing implicit guarantees improves output through lower cost of capital for private companies and better resource allocation.


Book
Understanding Residential Real Estate in China
Authors: --- --- --- ---
ISBN: 1484337271 1484337255 Year: 2015 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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China’s residential real estate sector plays an important role in the economy and has been a key driver of growth. Since 2014 the sector has softened visibly, reflecting overbuilding across many cities. An orderly adjustment of the sector is welcome. The key questions are how severe the adjustment will be and how long it will last. This paper uses various datasets, an analytical framework to estimate demand and supply conditions, and develops a number of scenarios to determine the oversupply both at the national level and by city tiers. It highlights that the adjustment will be a multiyear process with adverse implications for investment and growth. Smaller cities, as well as those in the Northeast region, face more challenging demand-supply dynamics. The key will be to allow the adjustment to take place, while avoiding a too sharp of an economic slowdown.

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