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Although Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) has experienced rapid growth in credit to households in recent years, most individuals are still credit constrained. This paper analyzes the determinants of household credit demand and credit constraints in BiH. To our knowledge, it is the first study on this topic employing household survey data (2001 and 2004) from Emerging Europe. Our results highlight the impact of the post-conflict and transitional nature of the country on the behavior of borrowers and lenders. As expected, age, income, wealth and education qualifications are the main factors driving credit market participation, while high income and high wealth lower credit constraints. In BiH, the probability of credit market participation peaks at 45 years old, considerably higher than in the advanced countries. At the same time, older individuals are significantly more constrained than their peers in the advanced countries. The results imply that the current credit boom may largely reflect the overall post-war demand, and indicate the worse-off position of the older generation in transition economy. Moreover, the results underscore the structural nature of unemployment as well as the mismatch between education qualifications and earning prospects in BiH. Education variables have no significant effect on the likelihood of being constrained, while, unlike in the advanced countries, being unemployed significantly increases the likelihood.
Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Education: General --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Labor Demand --- Monetary economics --- Education --- Labour --- income economics --- Personal income --- Credit --- Public employment --- Self-employment --- Income --- Economic theory --- Self-employed --- United States
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This paper documents and assesses the risk stemming from rising corporate indebtedness in China using a firm-level dataset of listed firms. It finds that while leverage on average is not high, there is a fat tail of highly leveraged firms accounting for a significant share of total corporate debt, mainly concentrated in the real estate and construction sector and state-owned enterprises in general. The real estate and construction firms tend to face lower borrowing costs and could withstand a modest increase of interest rate shocks despite their high leverage. The corporate sector is however vulnerable to a significant slowdown in the real estate and construction sector. Our sensitivity analysis suggests that the share of debt that would be in financial distress would rise to about a quarter of total listed firm debt in the event of a 20 percent decline in real estate and construction profits.
Corporate Finance --- Macroeconomics --- Industries: Manufacturing --- Industries: Financial Services --- Natural Resource Extraction --- Corporate Finance and Governance: General --- Industry Studies: Manufacturing: General --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Financial Crises --- Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction: General --- Ownership & organization of enterprises --- Manufacturing industries --- Finance --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Extractive industries --- Corporate sector --- Manufacturing --- Loans --- Global financial crisis of 2008-2009 --- Mining sector --- Economic sectors --- Financial institutions --- Financial crises --- Business enterprises --- Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 --- Mineral industries --- China, People's Republic of
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This paper assesses the scope and coverage of quasi-fiscal activities (QFAs) in Ghana. We find that while QFAs have been reduced recently, they remain significant. The extensive nature of these activities has several macroeconomic and structural policy implications. An extended measure of public sector operations, including QFAs, presents a clearer picture of Ghana's fiscal stance and fiscal adjustment from one for the central government alone; QFAs have led to serious distortions in energy and water consumption; and they have distorted the investment decisions of both public enterprises and the private sector.
Electronic books. -- local. --- Finance, Public -- Ghana. --- Fiscal policy -- Ghana. --- Government business enterprises -- Ghana. --- Fiscal policy --- Finance, Public --- Government business enterprises --- Nationalized companies --- Parastatals --- Public enterprises --- State-owned enterprises --- Cameralistics --- Public finance --- Tax policy --- Taxation --- Government policy --- Business enterprises --- Currency question --- Economic policy --- Public finances --- Banks and Banking --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Nonprofit Organizations and Public Enterprise: General --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Public Enterprises --- Public-Private Enterprises --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Public Administration --- Public Sector Accounting and Audits --- Public ownership --- nationalization --- Banking --- Civil service & public sector --- Public finance & taxation --- Quasi-fiscal operations --- Public sector --- Contingent liabilities --- Banks and banking --- Ghana
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This paper examines the impact of the recent global crisis on emerging market economies (EMs). Our cross-country analysis shows that the impact of the crisis was more pronounced in those EMs that had initial weaker fundamentals and greater financial and trade linkages. This effect is observed along a number of dimensions, such as growth, stock market performance, sovereign spreads, and credit growth. This paper also shows that during this crisis, pre-crisis reserve holdings helped to mitigate the initial growth collapse. This finding contrasts with other studies that fail to find a significant relationship between reserves and the growth decline. This paper argues that our preferred measure of impact is a more accurate reflection of the true impact of the crisis on EMs.
Globalization --- Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009. --- Economic aspects. --- Global Economic Crisis, 2008-2009 --- Subprime Mortgage Crisis, 2008-2009 --- Financial crises --- Finance: General --- Financial Risk Management --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Financial Crises --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Financing Policy --- Financial Risk and Risk Management --- Capital and Ownership Structure --- Value of Firms --- Goodwill --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Finance --- Monetary economics --- Credit --- Stock markets --- Early warning systems --- Emerging and frontier financial markets --- Stock exchanges --- Crisis management --- Financial services industry --- Indonesia
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Widespread implicit guarantees and interest ceilings were major distortions in China’s financial system, contributing to a misallocation of resources. We analyze the impact of removing such frictions in a general equilibrium setting. The results show that comprehensive reforms generate better outcomes than partial ones: removing the deposit rate ceiling alone increases output, but the efficiency of capital allocation does not improve. Removing implicit guarantees improves output through lower cost of capital for private companies and better resource allocation.
Banks and Banking --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Production and Operations Management --- General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium: General --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Economic History: Macroeconomics --- Growth and Fluctuations: Asia including Middle East --- Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Capacity --- Finance --- Banking --- Monetary economics --- Macroeconomics --- Deposit rates --- Interest rate ceilings --- Commercial banks --- Credit --- Financial services --- Money --- Financial institutions --- Total factor productivity --- Interest rates --- Banks and banking --- Industrial productivity --- China, People's Republic of
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China’s residential real estate sector plays an important role in the economy and has been a key driver of growth. Since 2014 the sector has softened visibly, reflecting overbuilding across many cities. An orderly adjustment of the sector is welcome. The key questions are how severe the adjustment will be and how long it will last. This paper uses various datasets, an analytical framework to estimate demand and supply conditions, and develops a number of scenarios to determine the oversupply both at the national level and by city tiers. It highlights that the adjustment will be a multiyear process with adverse implications for investment and growth. Smaller cities, as well as those in the Northeast region, face more challenging demand-supply dynamics. The key will be to allow the adjustment to take place, while avoiding a too sharp of an economic slowdown.
Housing -- Prices -- China. --- International Monetary Fund. --- Residential real estate -- China. --- Supply and demand. --- Business & Economics --- Real Estate, Housing & Land Use --- Infrastructure --- Investments: General --- Macroeconomics --- Real Estate --- Economic Development: Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis --- Housing --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location: General --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Property & real estate --- Gross fixed investment --- Real estate prices --- Income --- Price indexes --- National accounts --- Prices --- Saving and investment --- China, People's Republic of
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