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Book
China's Role in the Global Development of Critical Resources: Case Studies in Coal Power, Electricity Transmission, and Seabed Mining
Authors: --- ---
Year: 2022 Publisher: RAND Corporation

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Abstract

China's extensive and expanding foreign investment and financing activities over the past two decades have garnered substantial attention and raised several concerns. Such concerns are diverse and include (1) paying insufficient attention to internal politics, global relations, environmental regulations and controls, and human rights, worker safety, and health records of host nations; (2) engaging in unfair contracting practices; (3) using overseas investments and financing to attain access and influence in strategic locations; and (4) using disinformation to influence markets. For this report, the authors examined Chinese foreign investments and financing in critical resources and energy infrastructure for evidence of these types of behaviors. They used a case-study approach in which they examined investments and financing in coal power plants in Indonesia, Pakistan, and South Africa; electricity transmission and distribution infrastructure associated with the global energy interconnection initiative in Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Peru, and Mexico; and seabed mining globally. The objective of the research was to characterize Chinese foreign investments and financing in critical resources and energy infrastructure, emphasizing the extent to which Chinese investors engaged in any of these concerning behaviors, and to develop recommendations to build capacity among host nations to diversify their sources of investment and financing in order to minimize the potential negative impacts of an overreliance on Chinese investments and financing. The research did not turn up many clear examples of such behaviors, but the authors identified several other topics of concern that have important implications for host nations.

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Book
Countering violent nonstate actor financing : revenue sources, financing strategies, and tools of disruption
Authors: --- ---
Year: 2023 Publisher: RAND Corporation

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Violent nonstate actors (VNSAs) obtain money from multiple sources, both licit (e.g., donations and legitimate businesses) and illicit (e.g., extortion, smuggling, theft). They use that money to pay, equip, and sustain their fighters and to provide services to local populations, which can help build support for the groups, allowing them to extract resources, gain safe havens, and challenge state authority and territorial control. In this way, financial resources can prolong conflicts and undermine stabilization efforts after the fighting ends. Countering VNSA financing plays a critical role in degrading such organizations. Various means are available to disrupt financing. These include kinetic means, such as destroying resources or neutralizing leadership, and nonkinetic means, such as targeted financial sanctions and legal remedies. The counter–threat financing (CTF) tools that work best for transnational groups may not work as well for national ones, and some tools may prove counterproductive in certain situations. Which tools to use in a given case is not always obvious. The authors draw lessons from efforts against five VNSA groups to discover, in each case, how they financed their activities and for what purposes, as well as which methods to counter this financing worked best and which were counterproductive. The authors then consider what the U.S. Army can do to support counter–terrorism financing efforts.


Book
Optimizing the Contributions of Air Force Civilian STEM Workforce
Authors: --- --- --- ---
Year: 2020 Publisher: Santa Monica, Calif. RAND Corporation

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The U.S. Air Force's ability to accomplish national security goals relies heavily on research advances in the science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) fields. The current shortage of STEM professionals has a direct impact on how the Air Force carries out its mission. Addressing the gap in the Air Force's civilian STEM workforce and optimizing the productivity of its existing civilian STEM employees falls squarely within the Air Force's responsibility. Because of concerns over the shortage of civilian STEM professionals, especially those with advanced degrees, Air Force leadership asked RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF) to explore the existing academic and professional literature on STEM workforce to gain insights into how organizations such as the Air Force should manage, support, and organize their current civilian STEM workers to best leverage their talents and thereby maximize performance. PAF engaged in an extensive survey of the relevant literature for the study. First, the authors provided a brief overview of the differences between modern knowledge organizations, in contrast to traditional manufacturing or industrial organizations. Second, they described the characteristics of work that most appeal to STEM workers and drive their productivity. Third, the authors discussed human-capital functions that relate to the performance of STEM workers. Fourth, they discussed the changes in organizational structure most likely to foster STEM employees' productivity and innovation. Finally, the last section of this report summarizes the researchers' findings and recommendations.

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Book
Understanding and Reducing the Ability of Violent Nonstate Actors to Adapt to Change
Authors: --- --- --- --- --- et al.
Year: 2022 Publisher: RAND Corporation

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Violent nonstate actors (VNSAs) - terrorist groups, drug trafficking organizations, and others - are increasingly part of the environment in which the Army and other government forces operate. Such organizations pose durable and direct threats to U.S. security interests. The capacity of VNSAs to wage war, inflict violence, and engage in vast transnational criminal activity make them a persistent danger. Countering these organizations is difficult because they are generally flexible and structured in ways that facilitate their ability to adapt to changes occurring within their operational environments and, in some cases, beyond. This report summarizes research into how VNSAs adapt to changes in their operational environments and provides recommendations on how the Army might anticipate such adaptations and mitigate them before they occur. The authors have drawn from a series of historical case studies and relevant literature to offer insights on the most common VNSA adaptations and means of detecting and mitigating each. Among other observations, the authors note that VNSAs reach their peak adaptive capacity within the first five years of their existence but that not all VNSAs have the same level of adaptive capacity.

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Book
An Overview of the Effectiveness of U.S. Counternarcotics Efforts in Colombia, 2000–Present, and Recommendations for the Future
Authors: --- --- ---
Year: 2022 Publisher: Santa Monica, Calif. RAND Corporation

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Despite recent counternarcotics efforts by the Colombian and U.S. governments, coca cultivation and cocaine production in Colombia have risen to historic heights, making Colombia the leading global source of cocaine since 2014. However, the broad partnership between the governments of Colombia and the United States beginning in 2000 was instrumental in preventing Colombia from becoming a likely failed state and in ending the insurgency. The authors of this report examine the period in Colombia from 2000 to 2020 to assess the effectiveness of four key aspects of U.S. counternarcotics and security efforts in Colombia: eradication of coca; interdiction of cocaine, precursor chemicals, and destruction of facilities involved in drug production and trafficking; security and rule-of-law efforts to protect populations and support the development of institutions; and alternative development programs that discourage involvement in the drug trade by supporting viable, legal livelihoods. The authors find that although hard-power techniques can be effective in reducing coca cultivation and trafficking, broader issues — particularly in rural areas — need to be addressed, such as building licit economies, extending institutions and infrastructure, and promoting societal well-being. In addition, counterinsurgency and counternarcotics efforts are more likely to be successful and sustainable over longer periods if the four lines of effort are designed to complement and support each other. The limits of prioritizing eradication and interdiction over security and rule of law and development are especially noticeable in rural communities. Looking to the future, the authors recommend an approach that would synchronize the four lines of effort.

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Book
Department of the Air Force Civilian Compensation and Benefits: How Five Mission Critical and Hard-to-Fill Occupations Compare to the Private Sector and Key Federal Agencies
Authors: --- --- --- --- --- et al.
Year: 2021 Publisher: Santa Monica, Calif. RAND Corporation

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The U.S. Department of the Air Force has approximately 200,000 civilian employees working in 600 different occupations and professions. This includes approximately 170,000 appropriated fund civilians and more than 16,000 civilian employees who work in specialized research facilities and laboratories in 22 different locations across the United States.A critical tool in recruiting and retaining top-tier civilian talent is the compensation and benefits package offered. However, a recent study by the Congressional Budget Office found that the competitiveness of federal wages in general varies widely depending on educational attainment. The Air Force Directorate of Civilian Force Management asked Project AIR FORCE to conduct a study to help address concerns regarding the Air Force's ability to compete with private-sector compensation and benefits, particularly for hard-to-fill and mission critical occupations (MCOs). This report documents the constraints the Air Force must operate under in comparison with compensation and benefit structures found in other federal agencies and the private sector. It provides recommendations to improve the competitiveness of Air Force compensation and benefits packages to better recruit and retain top-tier civilian talent. Given the large number of civilian occupations within the Air Force, the authors focus specifically on five occupational fields identified as priorities because they are either designated as mission critical or are particularly hard to fill: Aircraft Operations, Air Traffic Control, Human Resources Management, Information Technology Management (Cyber), and Aircraft Mechanic.

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Book
Russia, NATO, and Black Sea security
Authors: --- --- --- --- --- et al.
Year: 2020 Publisher: Santa Monica, Calif. RAND Corporation

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The Black Sea region is a central locus of the competition between Russia and the West for the future of Europe. The region experienced two decades of simmering conflicts even before Moscow's illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, and Russia has used military force against countries in the region four times since 2008. The Kremlin is seeking to establish a sphere of privileged influence over countries in the region and limit their integration into Euro-Atlantic structures while enhancing Russia's regime stability and improving military capabilities for homeland defense and wider power projection into the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East. Despite this instability and conflict, U.S. and European officials and analysts have not given nearly as much attention to the region's security challenges as they have to those in Northern Europe. In this report, the authors first assess how Russia is employing a variety of nonmilitary and military instruments to advance its goals. They then consider how the three North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies (Bulgaria, Romania, and Turkey) and five NATO partners (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine) in the Black Sea region perceive and are responding to Russia's activities and where those countries' interests align and diverge. Finally, the authors identify possible elements of a Western strategy to protect mutual interests, counter Russian malign influence and aggression, and foster regional stability.


Book
Great-Power Competition and Conflict in Latin America

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In recent years, the United States has shifted its strategic focus from countering terrorism to countering China and Russia in the Indo-Pacific and Europe. Although Latin America has been a relatively neglected area in U.S. foreign policy in recent decades, it is a region of geostrategic importance for the United States. Increasingly, the region is also of interest to U.S. competitors: Both China and Russia have turned their attention toward Latin America in the past two decades, during which China has made economic and diplomatic inroads and Russia has increased its diplomatic and military presence. This report — part of a four-volume series — explores where and how the United States, China, and Russia are competing for influence in Latin America; what kinds of interests they have in the continent; what kinds of diplomatic, informational, military, and economic influence-seeking measures they are using; where and why competition might turn into conflict; what form that conflict might take; and what implications the findings have for the U.S. government at large, the Department of Defense, and the Department of the Air Force in particular. This research was completed in September 2021, before the November 2021 presidential elections in Nicaragua; Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine; and the October 2022 release of the unclassified versions of the National Security Strategy, the National Defense Strategy, the Nuclear Posture Review, and the Missile Defense Review. The report has not been subsequently revised.

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Book
Air Force Readiness Assessment: How Training Infrastructure Can Provide Better Information for Decisionmaking
Authors: --- --- --- --- --- et al.
Year: 2023 Publisher: RAND Corporation

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Senior Department of the Air Force leadership is increasingly concerned that the current readiness assessment system is not providing sufficient insight into the capability of the force to meet future mission requirements because of the shortcomings of outcome measurements. Concurrently, the U.S. Air Force is evolving its training infrastructure in response to the prospect of operations in contested and denied environments, an increased pace of warfare, and the potential loss of superiority across multiple domains in a conflict with near-peer adversaries.  Advances in the technological capabilities of training infrastructure can help fill gaps in current readiness assessments to provide senior leaders with better insight into the readiness of the force for future contingencies. To understand how such investments might do so, the authors used a multimethod approach that featured interviews with senior leaders in Air Force major commands and technical experts and included reviews of readiness reporting data and technical documentation. The report identifies current readiness assessment gaps and explores ways to address them through investments in training assets. One finding was that legacy metrics tend to focus on individual units, but the force must be able to integrate well to conduct the full spectrum of possible operations against a near-peer adversary. This requires adjusting training and how readiness is measured to assess how personnel from different units function as teams at various levels.

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Book
Stabilizing Great-Power Rivalries
Authors: --- --- --- --- --- et al.
Year: 2021 Publisher: Santa Monica, Calif. RAND Corporation

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The consensus inside and outside the U.S. government is that the international system is headed for a renewed era of intense and sometimes bitter competition among leading states. The objective of this research was to assess the emerging strategic competitions between the United States and both China and Russia, examine the approaches most likely to preserve long-term stability in these competitions, and draw implications for Army capabilities and posture. To this end, the authors reviewed existing literature on rivalries, identifying variables strongly associated with stability and instability, and, based on that research, developed a framework for assessment of such rivalries. They then applied this framework to historical cases of bilateral rivalries to identify the most important factors. Finally, they leveraged this work to assess the current state of U.S.-Russia and U.S.-China relations. Their assessment suggests that there are serious grounds for concern about the stability of both the U.S.-Russia and U.S.-China rivalries. While certain contextual factors, such as mutual strategic vulnerability, will remain buffers of conflict, many of the warning signs for instability are clearly visible, and the future seems likely to be even more volatile. The report offers recommendations for the U.S. government and the U.S. Army, in particular, to manage this challenging new era of competition. One overarching theme identified is that to ensure stability—and avoid war—the policy response to this intensified great-power competition should be nuanced and go beyond merely bolstering capabilities to counter rivals.

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