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The resilience of global value chains has been put to the test by the COVID-19 pandemic, extreme weather events, and trade tensions spurred by growing economic nationalism and protectionism. Shocks in production and trade can be transmitted from one country to another by global value chains, although they can also help to lessen the blow of a domestic shock, such as a lockdown, and drive economic recovery. What shocks to global value chains should be anticipated in the coming years Is it possible to design policies that can enhance resilience to trade shocks in developing countries without endangering growth This paper explores simulations from the ENVISAGE global computable general equilibrium model to enhance understanding of the potential longer-term impacts of COVID-19 and the policy responses it engenders in developing countries. The paper assesses the likely impacts of measures designed to reshore production and reduce reliance on imports. It also evaluates other key factors shaping the global economy, including stylized scenarios to capture the essential elements of policies to achieve carbon emission reductions that will have an impact on trade.

Pollution prevention.

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This paper provides a quantitative general equilibrium evaluation of the repeal of Britain's Corn Laws in 1846, the signature trade policy event of the nineteenth century. In studying the impact of abolishing the import duty on wheat, our framework highlights (a) the large open economy impact on the country's terms of trade and (b) the distribution impact on the factor earnings and the expenditure patterns of two different income groups. Based on a detailed input-output matrix of the British economy in 1841, our model suggests that the repeal left Britain's overall welfare roughly unchanged as the static efficiency gains are offset by the adverse terms-of-trade effects. Laborers and capital owners gained a slight amount at the expense of landowners (whose income fell about 3-5 percent). Combining these changes in factor payments with the different consumption patterns across income groups, we find that the top 10 percent of income earners lose while the bottom 90 percent of income earners, who spent a disproportionate amount of their income on food, gain.

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This paper aims to contribute to the debate on the choice of policies to reach the more ambitious 2030 emission reduction goals currently under consideration. It provides an analysis of the macroeconomic and distributional impacts of different options to scale up the mitigation effort, and proposes enhancements to the existing EU policies. A key finding is that a well-designed package, consisting of more extensive carbon pricing across EU countries and sectors, combined with cuts in distortionary taxes and targeted green investment support, would allow the EU to reach the emission goals with practically no effects on aggregate income. To enhance the social and political acceptance of climate policies, part of the revenue from carbon pricing should be used to compensate the most vulnerable households and to support the transition of workers to greener jobs. A carbon border adjustment mechanism could complement the package to avoid an increase in emissions outside the EU due to higher carbon prices in the EU (“carbon leakage”). From a risk-reward perspective, the benefits of reducing the risk of extreme life-threatening climate events and the health benefits from lower air pollution clearly outweigh the costs of mitigation policies.

Climate change mitigation --- Climat --- Climate change mitigation. --- Changements --- Atténuation --- European Union countries. --- Macroeconomics --- Taxation --- Environmental Economics --- Environmental Conservation and Protection --- Taxation and Subsidies: Externalities --- Redistributive Effects --- Environmental Taxes and Subsidies --- Climate --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Global Warming --- Environment and Growth --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Environmental Economics: General --- Public finance & taxation --- Climate change --- Economic growth --- Environmental economics --- Carbon tax --- Greenhouse gas emissions --- Sustainable growth --- Income --- Emissions trading --- Taxes --- Environment --- National accounts --- Environmental impact charges --- Greenhouse gases --- Economic development --- United States

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Innovations in water management and irrigated agriculture powered water-scarce Middle Eastern economies for millennia. However, as water becomes scarcer because of population growth and economic development, and even more erratic because of climate change, the region's water security is coming under increasing threat. This report applies an economic model, the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) computable general equilibrium model, to assess the economic impacts of water scarcity for six Middle Eastern countries and also to examine how water-use efficiency improvements and trade can mitigate these impacts. A 20 percent reduction in water supply could decrease GDP by up to 10 percent, compared to 2016 levels. Furthermore, increased water scarcity could reduce labor demand by up to 12 percent and lead to significant land-use changes, including loss of beneficial hydrological services. The report emphasizes how the growing dependence on shared water resources reinforces the need to manage water across boundaries. The message is clear: unless new and transformative policies for sustainable, efficient and cooperative water management are promoted, water scarcity will negatively impact the region's economic prospects and undermine its human and natural capital.

Agricultural Irrigation and Drainage --- Agricultural Sector Economics --- Agriculture --- Environment --- Irrigation --- Transboundary Water Management --- Water Resource Management --- Water Resources --- Water Resources Management --- Water Use