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Economic Implications of China's Demographics in the 21st Century
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ISBN: 1462382355 1452700850 1281606367 1451892381 9786613787064 Year: 2003 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This study assesses the economic implications of China's changing population in the 21st century using a numerical general equilibrium model. The simulations show that lower fertility rates yield lower saving rates. Since lower fertility rates reduce the future supply of labor, capital will become less productive. Consequently, if international capital mobility is high in China, a low fertility rate implies more future capital outflows. But if capital is less mobile, low fertility today lowers the domestic return to capital and raises the domestic return to labor. In addition, the paper finds no significant link between demographic structures and per capita income growth.


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A VAR Analysis of Kenya’s Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism : How Does the Central Bank’s REPO Rate Affect the Economy?
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ISBN: 1462335667 1452773335 1283512076 1451910134 9786613824523 Year: 2006 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper examines the impact of a monetary policy shock on output, prices, and the nominal effective exchange rate for Kenya using data during 1997–2005. Based on techniques commonly used in the vector autoregression literature, the main results suggest that an exogenous increase in the short-term interest rate tends to be followed by a decline in prices and appreciation in the nominal exchange rate, but has insignificant impact on output. Moreover, the paper finds that variations in the short-term interest rate account for significant fluctuations in the nominal exchange rate and prices, while accounting little for output fluctuations.


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A Reexamination of Korea’s Trade Flows : What Has Changed and What Explains These Changes?
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ISBN: 1462342825 1452729026 1282108735 1451901704 9786613802088 Year: 2004 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper reexamines Korea's trade flows. Using the standard demand-based models, the paper finds that owing to the increasing share of electrical and electronic products (EEPs) in total exports, the income elasticity of the Korean export demand has fallen sharply while its price elasticity has risen dramatically. This is a curious result, which begs the question of why. Accordingly, an alternative supply-based model shows that the sharp increase in exports of EEPs is mainly due to Korea's remarkable ability to make technological improvements in their production. After reestimating the standard import equation, the paper finds estimates similar to those from previous studies. Since most of these imports are industrial inputs, they are jointly determined by consumption, fixed investment, and exports.


Book
Growth and Recovery in Mongolia During Transition
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ISBN: 1462370845 1452785341 1283517426 1451919735 9786613829870 Year: 2003 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper studies Mongolia's experience of growth and recovery during the first decade of its transition to a market-based system and compares it with those of other transition economies. Mongolia, like most other transition economies, experienced a painful, initial "transformational recession" before the economy began to recover, with efficiency gains the main source of growth during the early stages of transition. Mongolia's transition process has been relatively smooth compared with other transition economies, probably reflecting the combined effects of some favorable initial conditions, coupled with the early adoption of appropriate adjustment policies and market-oriented reforms.

Keywords

Mongolia --- Mongġol --- 몽골 --- Mongol Uls --- Монгол Улс --- Mongġol Ulus --- Mongolie --- Mongolii︠a︡ --- Монголия --- Mongolei --- BNMAU --- БНМАУ --- Bu̇gd Naĭramdakh Mongol Ard Uls --- Bügd Nayramdah Mongol Ard Uls --- MNR --- МНР --- Mongolʹskai︠a︡ narodnai︠a︡ respublika --- Монгольская народная республика --- Meng-ku jen min kung ho kuo --- Menggu ren min gong he guo --- 蒙古人民共和國 --- Meng-ku --- Menggu --- 蒙古 --- Wai Meng-ku --- Mongolische Volksrepublik --- Mongoru Jimmin Kyōwakoku --- Mongol Népköztársaság --- Outer Mongolia --- Mongolia (Outer Mongolia) --- Mongolian People's Republic --- Mongolia (Mongolian People's Republic) --- République populaire de Mongolie --- Bu̇gd Naĭramdakh Mongol Ard Ulsyn --- Mongolian Republic --- Mongoliet --- モンゴル --- Mongoru --- 外蒙古 --- Gaimōko --- 蒙古人民共和国 --- Mōko Jinmin Kyōwakoku --- モンゴル人民共和国 --- Mongoru Jinmin Kyōwakoku --- Inner Mongolia (China) --- Economic policy. --- Economic conditions. --- Bu̇gu̇de Nayiramdaqu Mongġol Arad Ulus --- Mengguguo --- 蒙古国 --- Wai Menggu --- Investments: Stocks --- Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies: General --- Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies: Performance and Prospects --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Capacity --- Accounting --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Labor Economics: General --- Economic growth --- Investment & securities --- Labour --- income economics --- Total factor productivity --- Growth accounting --- Stocks --- Production growth --- Labor --- Financial institutions --- Industrial productivity --- Economic development --- Economic theory --- Labor economics --- Income economics


Book
A New Framework to Estimate the Risk-Neutral Probability Density Functions Embedded in Options Prices
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ISBN: 1462376924 1455219274 1282846531 9786612846533 1455202150 Year: 2010 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Building on the widely-used double-lognormal approach by Bahra (1997), this paper presents a multi-lognormal approach with restrictions to extract risk-neutral probability density functions (RNPs) for various asset classes. The contributions are twofold: first, on the technical side, the paper proposes useful transformation/restrictions to Bahra’s original formulation for achieving economically sensible outcomes. In addition, the paper compares the statistical properties of the estimated RNPs among major asset classes, including commodities, the S&P 500, the dollar/euro exchange rate, and the US 10-year Treasury Note. Finally, a Monte Carlo study suggests that the multi-lognormal approach outperforms the double-lognormal approach.


Book
See what I mean : how to use comics to communicate ideas
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ISBN: 9781933820279 Year: 2012 Publisher: Brooklyn (N.Y.) : Rosenfeld Media,

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The timing of guilty pleas : lessons from common law jurisdictions
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ISBN: 1009182757 1009158627 1009158600 Year: 2023 Publisher: Cambridge, United Kingdom ; New York, NY : Cambridge University Press,

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While guilty pleas are the primary mode of criminal case dispositions across different legal jurisdictions, this topic remains an understudied area. The assumption is that defendants are 'playing the system' and that a sliding scale of sentence discounts is necessary to encourage early guilty pleas, which offer utilitarian benefits of efficiency. These assumptions lack a solid empirical foundation. This book offers a comprehensive investigation of how the timing of guilty pleas affects various facets of the criminal process, from the factors that affect this timing, to the effects that the sliding scale of sentence discounts have on sentences and public opinions about them. It also draws comparisons between Western and Asian legal systems, specifically those of England and Wales and Hong Kong. This book is addressed to scholars, legal practitioners, policymakers and those interested in criminal justice, socio-legal studies and empirical legal research.

Keywords

Law --- Pleas of guilty


Book
The timing of guilty pleas
Author:
ISBN: 9781009158626 9781009158602 9781009158619 Year: 2023 Publisher: Cambridge, United Kingdom ; New York, NY Cambridge University Press

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Book
Potential Growth in Emerging Asia
Authors: --- --- ---
ISBN: 1484345754 1484345789 1484346408 Year: 2014 Volume: WP/14/2 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Using three distinct approaches—statistical filtering, production function, and multivariate model— this paper estimates potential growth for China, India, and five ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) during 1993–2013. The main findings include: (i) both China and India have recently exhibited a slowdown in potential growth, largely reflecting a decline of total factor productivity (TFP) growth; (ii) by contrast, trend growth for the five ASEAN countries has been rather stable and might even have increased marginally, with the notable exception of Vietnam;(iii) over the longer term, demographic factors will be much more supportive in India and some ASEAN economies than in China, where working-age population should start shrinking, with the overall dependency ratio climbing by the end of this decade. Improving or sustaining potential growth calls for broad structural reforms.


Book
Reaping the Benefits from Global Value Chains
Authors: --- --- ---
ISBN: 151355512X 1513515691 1513510436 Year: 2015 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Against the backdrop of the rise of global value chains (GVCs), particularly in Asia, this paper documents key developments of GVCs and investigates what factors cause economies to reap greater benefits from GVC participation. Key findings include: first, moving toward a more upstream position in production and raising economic complexity are associated with the country increasing its share of GVC value added. Second, fostering GVC participation and expanding the share of the domestic value added in a value chain require efforts to reduce trade barriers, enhance infrastructure, foster human capital formation, support research and development, and improve institutions.

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