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This study assesses the economic implications of China's changing population in the 21st century using a numerical general equilibrium model. The simulations show that lower fertility rates yield lower saving rates. Since lower fertility rates reduce the future supply of labor, capital will become less productive. Consequently, if international capital mobility is high in China, a low fertility rate implies more future capital outflows. But if capital is less mobile, low fertility today lowers the domestic return to capital and raises the domestic return to labor. In addition, the paper finds no significant link between demographic structures and per capita income growth.
Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Demography --- Women''s Studies' --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications --- Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts --- Demographic Economics: General --- Economics of the Elderly --- Economics of the Handicapped --- Non-labor Market Discrimination --- Labor Economics: General --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Economics of Gender --- Non-labor Discrimination --- Population & demography --- Labour --- income economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Gender studies --- women & girls --- Population and demographics --- Aging --- Labor --- Public expenditure review --- Women --- Expenditure --- Gender --- Population --- Population aging --- Labor economics --- Expenditures, Public --- China, People's Republic of --- Income economics --- Women & girls --- Women's Studies
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This paper examines the impact of a monetary policy shock on output, prices, and the nominal effective exchange rate for Kenya using data during 1997–2005. Based on techniques commonly used in the vector autoregression literature, the main results suggest that an exogenous increase in the short-term interest rate tends to be followed by a decline in prices and appreciation in the nominal exchange rate, but has insignificant impact on output. Moreover, the paper finds that variations in the short-term interest rate account for significant fluctuations in the nominal exchange rate and prices, while accounting little for output fluctuations.
Electronic books. -- local. --- Monetary policy -- Kenya -- Econometric models. --- Money supply -- Kenya. --- Banks and Banking --- Econometrics --- Foreign Exchange --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Monetary Policy --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Finance --- Monetary economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Short term interest rates --- Nominal effective exchange rate --- Monetary transmission mechanism --- Vector autoregression --- Monetary base --- Interest rates --- Monetary policy --- Money supply --- Kenya
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This paper reexamines Korea's trade flows. Using the standard demand-based models, the paper finds that owing to the increasing share of electrical and electronic products (EEPs) in total exports, the income elasticity of the Korean export demand has fallen sharply while its price elasticity has risen dramatically. This is a curious result, which begs the question of why. Accordingly, an alternative supply-based model shows that the sharp increase in exports of EEPs is mainly due to Korea's remarkable ability to make technological improvements in their production. After reestimating the standard import equation, the paper finds estimates similar to those from previous studies. Since most of these imports are industrial inputs, they are jointly determined by consumption, fixed investment, and exports.
Exports --- Imports --- International trade --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Trade: General --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- International economics --- Price elasticity --- Personal income --- Export prices --- Prices --- Income --- Korea, Republic of
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This paper studies Mongolia's experience of growth and recovery during the first decade of its transition to a market-based system and compares it with those of other transition economies. Mongolia, like most other transition economies, experienced a painful, initial "transformational recession" before the economy began to recover, with efficiency gains the main source of growth during the early stages of transition. Mongolia's transition process has been relatively smooth compared with other transition economies, probably reflecting the combined effects of some favorable initial conditions, coupled with the early adoption of appropriate adjustment policies and market-oriented reforms.
Mongolia --- Mongġol --- 몽골 --- Mongol Uls --- Монгол Улс --- Mongġol Ulus --- Mongolie --- Mongolii︠a︡ --- Монголия --- Mongolei --- BNMAU --- БНМАУ --- Bu̇gd Naĭramdakh Mongol Ard Uls --- Bügd Nayramdah Mongol Ard Uls --- MNR --- МНР --- Mongolʹskai︠a︡ narodnai︠a︡ respublika --- Монгольская народная республика --- Meng-ku jen min kung ho kuo --- Menggu ren min gong he guo --- 蒙古人民共和國 --- Meng-ku --- Menggu --- 蒙古 --- Wai Meng-ku --- Mongolische Volksrepublik --- Mongoru Jimmin Kyōwakoku --- Mongol Népköztársaság --- Outer Mongolia --- Mongolia (Outer Mongolia) --- Mongolian People's Republic --- Mongolia (Mongolian People's Republic) --- République populaire de Mongolie --- Bu̇gd Naĭramdakh Mongol Ard Ulsyn --- Mongolian Republic --- Mongoliet --- モンゴル --- Mongoru --- 外蒙古 --- Gaimōko --- 蒙古人民共和国 --- Mōko Jinmin Kyōwakoku --- モンゴル人民共和国 --- Mongoru Jinmin Kyōwakoku --- Inner Mongolia (China) --- Economic policy. --- Economic conditions. --- Bu̇gu̇de Nayiramdaqu Mongġol Arad Ulus --- Mengguguo --- 蒙古国 --- Wai Menggu --- Investments: Stocks --- Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies: General --- Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies: Performance and Prospects --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Capacity --- Accounting --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Labor Economics: General --- Economic growth --- Investment & securities --- Labour --- income economics --- Total factor productivity --- Growth accounting --- Stocks --- Production growth --- Labor --- Financial institutions --- Industrial productivity --- Economic development --- Economic theory --- Labor economics --- Income economics
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Building on the widely-used double-lognormal approach by Bahra (1997), this paper presents a multi-lognormal approach with restrictions to extract risk-neutral probability density functions (RNPs) for various asset classes. The contributions are twofold: first, on the technical side, the paper proposes useful transformation/restrictions to Bahra’s original formulation for achieving economically sensible outcomes. In addition, the paper compares the statistical properties of the estimated RNPs among major asset classes, including commodities, the S&P 500, the dollar/euro exchange rate, and the US 10-year Treasury Note. Finally, a Monte Carlo study suggests that the multi-lognormal approach outperforms the double-lognormal approach.
Stock options --- Options (Finance) --- Prices --- Mathematical models. --- Options, Stock --- Investments: Commodities --- Investments: Futures --- Investments: Options --- Macroeconomics --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Commodity Markets --- Finance --- Investment & securities --- Asset prices --- Futures --- Commodities --- Options --- Commodity prices --- Derivative securities --- Commercial products --- United States
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While guilty pleas are the primary mode of criminal case dispositions across different legal jurisdictions, this topic remains an understudied area. The assumption is that defendants are 'playing the system' and that a sliding scale of sentence discounts is necessary to encourage early guilty pleas, which offer utilitarian benefits of efficiency. These assumptions lack a solid empirical foundation. This book offers a comprehensive investigation of how the timing of guilty pleas affects various facets of the criminal process, from the factors that affect this timing, to the effects that the sliding scale of sentence discounts have on sentences and public opinions about them. It also draws comparisons between Western and Asian legal systems, specifically those of England and Wales and Hong Kong. This book is addressed to scholars, legal practitioners, policymakers and those interested in criminal justice, socio-legal studies and empirical legal research.
Law --- Pleas of guilty
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Using three distinct approaches—statistical filtering, production function, and multivariate model— this paper estimates potential growth for China, India, and five ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) during 1993–2013. The main findings include: (i) both China and India have recently exhibited a slowdown in potential growth, largely reflecting a decline of total factor productivity (TFP) growth; (ii) by contrast, trend growth for the five ASEAN countries has been rather stable and might even have increased marginally, with the notable exception of Vietnam;(iii) over the longer term, demographic factors will be much more supportive in India and some ASEAN economies than in China, where working-age population should start shrinking, with the overall dependency ratio climbing by the end of this decade. Improving or sustaining potential growth calls for broad structural reforms.
Finance --- Inflation --- Investments: General --- Labor --- Production and Operations Management --- Demography --- Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development --- Measurement of Economic Growth --- Aggregate Productivity --- Cross-Country Output Convergence --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Capacity --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Economics of the Elderly --- Economics of the Handicapped --- Non-labor Market Discrimination --- Labor Standards: Labor Force Composition --- Macroeconomics --- Population & demography --- Labour --- income economics --- Total factor productivity --- Capital accumulation --- Aging --- Labor force participation --- National accounts --- Prices --- Population and demographics --- Industrial productivity --- Saving and investment --- Population aging --- Labor market --- China, People's Republic of --- Income economics
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Against the backdrop of the rise of global value chains (GVCs), particularly in Asia, this paper documents key developments of GVCs and investigates what factors cause economies to reap greater benefits from GVC participation. Key findings include: first, moving toward a more upstream position in production and raising economic complexity are associated with the country increasing its share of GVC value added. Second, fostering GVC participation and expanding the share of the domestic value added in a value chain require efforts to reduce trade barriers, enhance infrastructure, foster human capital formation, support research and development, and improve institutions.
Production (Economic theory) --- Manufactures --- Tariff --- International trade. --- Ad valorem tariff --- Border taxes --- Customs (Tariff) --- Customs duties --- Duties --- Fees, Import --- Import controls --- Import fees --- Tariff on raw materials --- Commercial policy --- Indirect taxation --- Revenue --- Customs administration --- Favored nation clause --- Non-tariff trade barriers --- Reciprocity (Commerce) --- Manufactured goods --- Manufactured products --- Products --- Products, Manufactured --- Commercial products --- Manufacturing industries --- Microeconomics --- Supply and demand --- Demand (Economic theory) --- Supply-side economics --- External trade --- Foreign commerce --- Foreign trade --- Global commerce --- Global trade --- Trade, International --- World trade --- Commerce --- International economic relations --- Non-traded goods --- Exports and Imports --- Labor --- Taxation --- Industries: Manufacturing --- Globalization --- Trade: General --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Globalization: General --- Industry Studies: Manufacturing: General --- Human Capital --- Skills --- Occupational Choice --- Labor Productivity --- Public finance & taxation --- International economics --- Labour --- income economics --- Global value chains --- Manufacturing --- Tariffs --- Exports --- Human capital --- Economic sectors --- Taxes --- International trade --- China, People's Republic of --- Income economics
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