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Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center researchers sought to establish a causal connection between border-enforcement actions or policies and metrics that might be used to measure relevant outcomes at the border. Applying quasi-experimental methods, they investigated the impact of surveillance technology on levels of U.S. Border Patrol apprehensions of unlawful border-crossers between ports of entry along the southwest border. Their analysis offers insights into some of the effects of surveillance technology and serves as a demonstration of concept for the usefulness of such statistical methods. The most robust finding is that deploying integrated fixed towers (IFTs) is associated with decreased apprehension levels in the zones of deployment. Although the researchers emphasize ambiguity in the meaning of the results and the uncertainty in statistical inference with relatively small numbers of deployments, they concluded that there is strong evidence that some migrants were deterred from crossing surveilled areas of the border. The results are more inconclusive for the other surveillance assets—but there are suggestions that, unlike IFTs, tactical aerostat systems (TASs) (and, to a lesser extent, other technologies) elevate apprehension levels, which points to a boost to the U.S. Border Patrol's situational awareness. Statistical methods hold both promise and limitations for the study of the impact of border-enforcement measures beyond the analysis in this study. Although these methods cannot, on their own, yield clear answers in every case, they do have the potential to help operational commanders and policymakers understand and anticipate the impact and effectiveness of different border-enforcement measures.

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A 2016 U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) regulation, "Transportation Worker Identification Credential (TWIC)-Reader Requirements," requires certain maritime facilities determined to be of high risk to use electronic and biometric access control programs in the facilities' secure areas. The final version of this rule, known as the final reader rule, has been delayed (from 2020) until May 8, 2023, for three categories of facilities that handle certain dangerous cargoes (CDCs) in bulk. The USCG asked the Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center to reestimate the population of such regulated facilities that could be subject to the final reader rule delay, develop an objective risk assessment model for these facilities, and conduct a cost-benefit analysis of the regulation. This report describes the researchers' analytical efforts to address these three research areas. Because there is no database of Maritime Transportation Security Act-regulated facilities that has all the requisite information about CDCs that facilities handle in bulk, the researchers resorted to other data sources, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's databases, an online survey, and interviews, to estimate the facility population. For the facility risk model, they used the modeling approach for assessing potential consequence included in the risk engine of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency's Chemical Facility Anti-Terrorism Standards (CFATS) program, harmonizing the TWIC and CFATS programs in consequence assessment. Because there was no credible estimate for the probability of a transportation security incident, the researchers used a break-even analysis to assess whether the final reader rule is cost-effective.

Identification cards --- Marine terminals --- Ports of entry --- Harbors --- Hazardous substances --- Terrorism --- Access control --- Management --- Security measures --- Transportation --- Prevention --- United States.