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Literature on whether government spending crowds out or crowds in the private sector is large, but still without an unambiguous conclusion. Using firm-level data from Ukraine, this paper provides a granular empirical investigation to disentangle the impact of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) on private firm investment in Ukraine—a large transition economy. Controlling for firm characteristics and systematic differences across sectors, the results indicate that the SOE concentration in a given sector has a statistically significant negative effect on private fixed capital formation, and that the impact of SOEs is stronger in those industries in which SOEs have a more dominant presence. These findings imply that private firms operating in sectors with a high level of SOE concentration invest systematically less than businesses that are not competing directly with SOEs.

Corporations --- Business finance --- Capitalization (Finance) --- Corporate finance --- Corporate financial management --- Corporation finance --- Financial analysis of corporations --- Financial management, Corporate --- Financial management of corporations --- Financial planning of corporations --- Managerial finance --- Going public (Securities) --- Finance. --- Investments: General --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Taxation --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Fiscal Policy --- Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Nonprofit Organizations and Public Enterprise: General --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Public finance & taxation --- Public ownership --- nationalization --- Private investment --- Public enterprises --- Government debt management --- Revenue sharing --- Expenditure --- National accounts --- Economic sectors --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Taxes --- Saving and investment --- Government business enterprises --- Debts, Public --- Expenditures, Public --- Ukraine --- Nationalization

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This paper investigates the empirical characteristics of business cycles and the extent of cyclical comovement in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, using various measures of synchronization for non-hydrocarbon GDP and constituents of aggregate demand during the period 1990-2010. By applying the Christiano-Fitzgerald asymmetric band-pass filter and a mean corrected concordance index, the paper identifies the degree of non-hydrocarbon business cycle synchronization?one of the main prerequisites for countries considering to establish a monetary union. The empirical results show low and heterogeneous synchronization in non-hydrocarbon business cycles across the GCC economies, and a decline in the degree of synchronicity in the 2000s, if Kuwait is excluded from the sample, partly because of divergent fiscal policies.

Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods --- Single Equation Models --- Single Variables: Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Fiscal Policy --- Economic Integration --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- International Policy Coordination and Transmission --- Resource Booms --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Financial Aspects of Economic Integration --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures --- Other Public Investment and Capital Stock --- Economic growth --- International economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Business cycles --- Monetary unions --- Private consumption --- Government consumption --- Public investment spending --- Economic integration --- National accounts --- Expenditure --- Consumption --- Economics --- Public investments --- Saudi Arabia

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This paper estimates the magnitude and speed of tax pass-through across tobacco products at different price points in Pakistan by using a novel dataset of monthly observations on cigarette prices in 50 cities during the period 2004-2015. The pass-through of cigarette taxes to retail prices is found to occur within two months, but is mostly incomplete in magnitude. On average, a one-rupee tax increase is estimated to lead to an increase of only PRs 0.8 in retail cigarette prices. This is driven by the fact that tobacco manufacturers absorb a significant part of the tax increase. For the premium brand, however, I observe full passthrough, indicating possibilities of different demand elasticities across product tiers. These findings are likely to be attributable to competitive market pressures, especially at the budget end of the price spectrum, possibly stemming from changing consumption patterns with greater awareness of health risks as well as the impact of illicit domestic production.

Cigarettes. --- Cigarettes --- Taxation. --- Cigarette tax --- Cigarets --- Tobacco products --- Business Taxes and Subsidies --- Capacity --- Capital --- Consumer price indexes --- Consumer prices --- Consumption --- Deflation --- Economics --- Efficiency --- Excise tax --- Excise taxes --- Excises --- Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: Firm --- Inflation --- Intangible Capital --- Investment --- Macroeconomics --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- National accounts --- Optimal Taxation --- Price indexes --- Price Level --- Prices --- Saving --- State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue --- Taxation and Subsidies: Incidence --- Taxation --- Taxes --- Tobacco tax --- Tobacco --- Wealth --- Pakistan

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This paper uses an augmented gravity model framework to investigate the historical impact of infectious diseases on international tourism and develops an out-of-sample prediction model. Using bilateral tourism flows among 38,184 pairs of countries during the period 1995–2017, I compare the forecasting performance of alternative specifications and estimation methods. These computations confirm the statistical and economic significance of infectious-disease episodes in forecasting international tourism flows. Including infectious diseases in the model improves forecast accuracy by an average of 4.5 percent and as much as 7 percent relative to the standard gravity model. The magnitude of these effects, however, is likely to be much greater in the case of COVID-19, which is a highly contagious virus that has spread fast throughout populations across the world.

Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Industries: Hospital,Travel and Tourism --- Econometrics --- Diseases: Contagious --- Single Equation Models --- Single Variables: Cross-Sectional Models --- Spatial Models --- Treatment Effect Models --- 'Panel Data Models --- Spatio-temporal Models' --- Trade: General --- Neoclassical Models of Trade --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation --- Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity --- Sports --- Gambling --- Restaurants --- Recreation --- Tourism --- Econometric Modeling: General --- Health Behavior --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Hospitality, leisure & tourism industries --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Infectious & contagious diseases --- Economic sectors --- Gravity models --- Econometric analysis --- Communicable diseases --- Health --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Econometric models

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The post-pandemic rise in consumer prices across the world has renewed interest in inflation dynamics after decades of global disinflation. This paper provides a spatial investigation of inflation synchronicity at the city level in Lithuania using disaggregated monthly data during the period 2000–2021. The empirical analysis provides strong evidence that (i) the co-movement of city-level inflation rates—estimated using the instantaneous quasi-correlation approach—is significantly weaker than the extent of synchronization suggested by the simple correlation analysis; (ii) there is substantial heterogeneity in the instantaneous quasi-correlation of inflation subcomponents between city pairs; and (iii) there are significant changes in the degree of city-level synchronization over time, reflecting important economic developments in history such as the global financial crisis, the adoption of euro, and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Inflation --- Infrastructure --- Estimation --- Single Equation Models --- Single Variables: Cross-Sectional Models --- Spatial Models --- Treatment Effect Models --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Financial Crises --- Economic Development: Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis --- Housing --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Prices --- Consumer price indexes --- Consumer prices --- Global financial crisis of 2008-2009 --- Financial crises --- National accounts --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Price indexes --- Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 --- Saving and investment --- Lithuania, Republic of