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Liquidity in the banking sector in Argentina reached new heights in early 1996 with the sharp reflow of deposits in the aftermath of the 1995 banking crisis. Yet, this did not translate into a similar recovery of credit to the private sector. Two hypotheses have been raised to explain this mismatch. One is that credit to the private sector was supply constrained because of adverse selection mechanisms exacerbated by the crisis. An alternative hypothesis is that credit was demand constrained, as unemployment remained high and the debt stock adjustment unwound only slowly through the first half of 1996. This paper examines these hypotheses.
Banks and Banking --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Industries: Financial Services --- Macroeconomics --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Money Supply --- Credit --- Money Multipliers --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Public Enterprises --- Public-Private Enterprises --- Monetary economics --- Finance --- Banking --- Civil service & public sector --- Bank credit --- Loans --- Domestic credit --- Money --- Financial institutions --- Public sector --- Economic sectors --- Banks and banking --- Finance, Public --- Argentina
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The currency board arrangement and widespread dollarization of the Argentine economy since 1991 have laid the basis for domestic interest rates to converge to international levels. Although such a convergence has been observed for interest rates on bank deposits, interest rates on bank lending remain well above industrial country levels. This paper examines the causes of high intermediation spreads in Argentina using a dual currency model of the banking industry, which incorporates key features of credit markets in that country. Empirical results allow inferences to be drawn on the effects of macroeconomic and financial policies on bank lending and interest rates.
Banks and Banking --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Industries: Financial Services --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Financing Policy --- Financial Risk and Risk Management --- Capital and Ownership Structure --- Value of Firms --- Goodwill --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Banking --- Monetary economics --- Finance --- Financial services law & regulation --- Currencies --- Loans --- Exchange rate risk --- Bank credit --- Financial institutions --- Money --- Financial regulation and supervision --- Commercial banks --- Banks and banking --- Financial risk management --- Credit --- Argentina
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Leading economists propose solutions to the problems of globalizationGlobalization has expanded economic opportunities throughout the world, but it has also left many people feeling dispossessed, disenfranchised, and angry. Luís Catão and Maurice Obstfeld bring together some of today's top economists to assess the benefits, costs, and daunting policy challenges of globalization. This timely and accessible book combines incisive analyses of the anatomy of globalization with innovative and practical policy ideas that can help to make it work better for everyone.Meeting Globalization's Challenges draws on new research to examine the channels through which international trade and the diffusion of technology have enhanced the wealth of nations while also producing unequal benefits within and across countries. The book provides needed perspectives on the complex interplay of trade, deindustrialization, inequality, and the troubling surge of nationalism and populism-perspectives that are essential for crafting sound economic policies. It tackles the vexing issue of how to most effectively compensate globalization's losers and reintegrate them into job markets. The book also explores how to design social insurance policies that can mitigate the risks posed by automation and offshoring, such as mass unemployment and its inherent dangers to democracy.With a foreword by International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde and a history-rich synthesis by Catão and Obstfeld of main policy takeaways, Meeting Globalization's Challenges features contributions by Ufuk Akçiğit, Edward Alden, François Bourguignon, Angus Deaton, Rafael Dix-Carneiro, Jeffry Frieden, Gordon H. Hanson, Keyu Jin, Lori G. Kletzer, Anne Krueger, Paul Krugman, Nina Pavcnik, Andrés Rodríguez-Clare, Dani Rodrik, Michael Trebilcock, Laura D. Tyson, Martin Wolf, and Ernesto Zedillo.
International economic relations. --- Free trade. --- Globalization --- Economic development --- Economic aspects. --- Social aspects.
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The role of exchange rate flexibility in the periphery of the gold standard has been grossly overlooked. This paper builds a new dataset on trade-weighed exchange rates for the period 1870-1913 and finds that large currency movements in periphery countries operating inconvertible paper-money and silver-standard regimes induced major fluctuations in effective exchange rates worldwide. We relate the phenomenon to the international trade structure at the time and show that such currency fluctuations had powerful effects on trade flows. We conclude that nominal exchange rate flexibility in the periphery was an important ingredient of international payments adjustment under the gold standard.
Investments: Metals --- Foreign Exchange --- International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions --- Economic History: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics --- Growth and Fluctuations: General, International, or Comparative --- Metals and Metal Products --- Cement --- Glass --- Ceramics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Investment & securities --- Exchange rates --- Real effective exchange rates --- Real exchange rates --- Nominal effective exchange rate --- Gold --- Commodities --- United States
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This paper presents new estimates of export and import equations for Argentina, using a broader set of variables than previous studies and distinguishing between intra- and extra-MERCOSUR trade. It measures the importance of relative price versus income effects in accounting for the higher trade deficit during the 1990s, and examines whether foreign trade elasticities have increased as a result of structural changes in the economy. It finds that the high income elasticity of imports and the responsiveness of exports to changes in world commodity prices, domestic absorption, and economic activity in Brazil have been key determinants of Argentina’s trade balance.
Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Neoclassical Models of Trade --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Trade: General --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- International economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Exports --- Imports --- Real exchange rates --- Trade balance --- Export prices --- International trade --- Prices --- Balance of trade --- Argentina
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This paper examines the propagation of monetary shocks in a two-good optimizing macromodel where domestic banking activity is costly and the non-tradable sector is highly dependent on domestic bank credit, as in most emerging market economies. The model develops the Bernanke-Blinder “credit view” of the monetary transmission mechanism along classical lines, with no Keynesian rigidities being imposed and the only sources of “imperfection” arising from deposit and credit-in-advance constraints. Using numerical simulations, we show that such a relatively simple model goes a long way toward explaining some key “stylized facts” of recent financial crises.
Banks and Banking --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Finance: General --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Monetary economics --- Banking --- Labour --- income economics --- Finance --- Bank credit --- Credit --- Consumption --- Money --- National accounts --- Emerging and frontier financial markets --- Financial markets --- Banks and banking --- Economics --- Economic theory --- Financial services industry --- Argentina
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Empirical studies have had little success in finding a statistically significant relationship between fiscal deficits and inflation in broad cross-country panels. This paper provides new econometric estimates for a panel of 23 emerging market countries during 1970-2000. Unlike previous studies, we allow for a rich dynamic specification and focus on the long-run relationship between the two variables controlling for differences in the inflation tax base. We find that a 1 percentage point reduction in the ratio of fiscal deficit to GDP typically lowers long-run inflation by 1½ to 6 percentage points, depending on the size of the inflation tax base.
Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook: General --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Public finance & taxation --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- International economics --- Government debt management --- Oil prices --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Interest payments --- Public financial management (PFM) --- External debt --- Debts, Public --- Debt service --- United States
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Dollarization in financial intermediation has exhibited a widely diverse pattern across countries. Empirical work relating it to macroeconomic variables has had only limited success in explaining the phenomenon. This paper presents a two-currency banking model to show that deposit and loan dollarization are determined by a broader set of factors. These include interest rates and exchange rate risk, as well as structural factors related to costly banking, credit market imperfections, and availability of tradable collateral. The direction in which dollarization tends to move with macroeconomic shocks is shown to depend on those factors as well as on initial dollarization levels.
Banks and Banking --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Industries: Financial Services --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Financing Policy --- Financial Risk and Risk Management --- Capital and Ownership Structure --- Value of Firms --- Goodwill --- Monetary economics --- Finance --- Banking --- Financial services law & regulation --- Dollarization --- Currencies --- Loans --- Bank credit --- Monetary policy --- Money --- Financial institutions --- Exchange rate risk --- Financial regulation and supervision --- Banks and banking --- Credit --- Financial risk management --- United States
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