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With a large share of the population dependent on agriculture and high exposure to natural disasters and other food price shocks, the welfare impacts of food price inflation in Mozambique cannot be ignored. This paper performs incidence analysis exploiting the spatial location of households to match data on consumption with production from agricultural activities to simulate the welfare effects of food price changes. The analysis focuses on maize, rice, and cassava, which form a substantial part of the Mozambican diet, as a source of calories and budgetary allocation. The results show large net negative welfare effects of food price rises in rural areas and small, negative effects in urban areas. A 10 percent increase in maize prices is associated with a reduction of 1.2 percent in consumption per capita in rural areas and 0.2 percent in urban areas. The effects from changes in the prices of rice and cassava are lower but qualitatively equal. Overall, the negative effects are larger for the bottom half of the distribution and imply that the price spike in 2016-17 may have translated into a poverty increase of 4-6 percentage points, with some of the poorest provinces bearing much of the brunt. The results hold to changes in some of the underlying assumptions of the simulations.

Agriculture --- Climate Change And Agriculture --- Crops & Crop Management Systems --- Food Prices --- Food Security --- Health, Nutrition And Population --- Incidence Analysis --- Inequality --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics And Economic Growth --- Nutrition --- Poverty

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This paper investigates the effects of multiple weather shocks on household welfare in Mozambique, as well as some of the coping responses and price mechanisms at play. The analysis employs a triple-difference strategy that exploits variation in the shocks across space, time, and cropping cycles. The findings demonstrate high levels of vulnerability across various weather risks. Experiencing a cyclone, flood, or drought leads to a drop of up to 25-30% in per capita food consumption and around 0.4 fewer meals per day per person. Poverty increased by 12 and 17.5 percentage points in two of the three events analyzed. Human capital accumulation, as measured by school participation and morbidity, is disrupted. Households follow risk-coping strategies, such as increasing the labor supply of their children or selling assets, which entail partial protection in the aftermath of the shock at the cost of lower income growth in the future. In disentangling the channels, the paper shows that maize prices exhibit higher volatility in food markets that are spatially close to the most affected areas. The results are robust to several robustness checks, including analysis of bias from selective migration, and indicate that household welfare and economic mobility in low-income environments are constrained by uninsured weather risks.

Natural disasters.

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The paper, which serves as a gender background paper for the 2021 Malawi Poverty Assessment, is structured as follows. It first presents the data and empirical strategy. Chapter two presents poverty data and discusses the intersection of poverty and gender. Poverty by household composition is essential for understanding gendered differences in poverty. From there, chapter three explores gender disparities in economic opportunities, following the analytical framework cited earlier. The authors will then move to potential drivers of economic outcomes: endowments (chapter four) and agency (chapter five). The last section offers conclusions.

Poverty --- Sex differences. --- Sex discrimination against women

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Poverty estimates usually lag behind two years, which makes it difficult to provide real-time poverty analysis to assess the impact of economic crisis and shocks among the less well-off, and subsequently limits policy responses. This paper takes advantage of up-to-date average economic welfare indicators like the gross domestic product per capita and comprehensive harmonized micro data of more than 180 household surveys in 15 Latin American countries. The paper tests three commonly used poverty nowcasting methods and ranks their performance by comparing country-specific and regional poverty nowcasts with actual poverty estimates for 2003-14 period. The validation results show that the two bottom-up approaches, which simulate the performance of each agent in the economy to nowcast overall poverty, perform relatively better than the top-down approach, which uses welfare estimates to explain the performance of poverty at an aggregate level over time. The results are robust to additional sensitivity and robustness tests.

Distributed Energy --- Feed-In Tariffs --- Metering --- Off-Grid Pv --- Photovoltaic --- Solar