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This paper estimates the impact of armed conflict on subsequent health outcomes using detailed geographic information on households' distance from conflict sites--a more accurate measure of conflict exposure-- and compares the impact on children exposed in utero versus after birth. The identification strategy relies on exogenous variation in the conflict's geographic extent and timing as well as the exposure of different birth cohorts while in utero or after birth. Results show that war-exposed children subsequently have lower height-for-age Z-scores, and impacts using GPS information are 87-188% larger than if exposure is measured at the imprecise regional level. Effects of in utero and after birth exposure are comparable in magnitude, and children in the war instigating and losing country (Eritrea) suffer more than the winning nation (Ethiopia). Results are robust to including region-specific time trends, alternative conflict exposure measures, and addressing potential bias due to selective migration.
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With a large share of the population dependent on agriculture and high exposure to natural disasters and other food price shocks, the welfare impacts of food price inflation in Mozambique cannot be ignored. This paper performs incidence analysis exploiting the spatial location of households to match data on consumption with production from agricultural activities to simulate the welfare effects of food price changes. The analysis focuses on maize, rice, and cassava, which form a substantial part of the Mozambican diet, as a source of calories and budgetary allocation. The results show large net negative welfare effects of food price rises in rural areas and small, negative effects in urban areas. A 10 percent increase in maize prices is associated with a reduction of 1.2 percent in consumption per capita in rural areas and 0.2 percent in urban areas. The effects from changes in the prices of rice and cassava are lower but qualitatively equal. Overall, the negative effects are larger for the bottom half of the distribution and imply that the price spike in 2016-17 may have translated into a poverty increase of 4-6 percentage points, with some of the poorest provinces bearing much of the brunt. The results hold to changes in some of the underlying assumptions of the simulations.
Agriculture --- Climate Change And Agriculture --- Crops & Crop Management Systems --- Food Prices --- Food Security --- Health, Nutrition And Population --- Incidence Analysis --- Inequality --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics And Economic Growth --- Nutrition --- Poverty
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Mozambique is among the African countries most exposed to weather-related hazards. Using detailed gridded precipitation data for individuals' birth-year and birth-district, this study investigates the effects of extreme rainfall anomalies around the time of birth on long-run well-being. The results show that the socioeconomic outcomes of adults are influenced by weather shocks that occur early in life. Individuals exposed to floods while in utero or during the first year of life are less likely to participate in the labor market. Consequently, the households that they are heading exhibit lower consumption and are more prone to be poor. In disentangling the mechanisms at play, this paper presents suggestive evidence of variation in agricultural output, food security, and subsequent detrimental effects on human capital accumulation as important drivers behind the impacts. The study concludes that policy efforts aimed at accelerating poverty reduction in Mozambique will have to consider the inability of rural households to shield the well-being of children from the consequences of extreme weather shocks.
Human Capital --- Human Welfare --- Natural Disasters --- Poverty --- Weather
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This paper investigates the effects of multiple weather shocks on household welfare in Mozambique, as well as some of the coping responses and price mechanisms at play. The analysis employs a triple-difference strategy that exploits variation in the shocks across space, time, and cropping cycles. The findings demonstrate high levels of vulnerability across various weather risks. Experiencing a cyclone, flood, or drought leads to a drop of up to 25-30% in per capita food consumption and around 0.4 fewer meals per day per person. Poverty increased by 12 and 17.5 percentage points in two of the three events analyzed. Human capital accumulation, as measured by school participation and morbidity, is disrupted. Households follow risk-coping strategies, such as increasing the labor supply of their children or selling assets, which entail partial protection in the aftermath of the shock at the cost of lower income growth in the future. In disentangling the channels, the paper shows that maize prices exhibit higher volatility in food markets that are spatially close to the most affected areas. The results are robust to several robustness checks, including analysis of bias from selective migration, and indicate that household welfare and economic mobility in low-income environments are constrained by uninsured weather risks.
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This paper estimates the long-term effects on human capital accumulation and subsequent labor market outcomes of in utero and early childhood exposure to the civil war in El Salvador (1980-92), the second longest and deadliest civil conflict in Central America. Identification is obtained from spatial and intertemporal variation in the intensity of the conflict drawn from historical archive data comprising records of human casualties, disappearances, and refugees. The results show that people born in highly violent areas during the civil war saw a reduction in their probability of being employed by 6 percentage points, and of getting a high-skilled job by 5 percentage points, 20 to 30 years after it happened. The civil war also reduced their education by 0.8 year, as well as their enrollment and literacy rates. Subgroup analysis indicates that exposed males and indigenous groups experienced the largest losses in human capital and had weaker performance in the labor market.
Access and Equity in Basic Education --- Armed Conflict --- Civil War --- Early Childhood Development --- Education For All --- Employment --- Enrollment --- Human Capital Accumulation --- Inequality --- Labor Markets --- Literacy --- Long-Term Impact --- Refugees --- Rural Labor Markets --- Wages --- Welfare Impact
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The paper, which serves as a gender background paper for the 2021 Malawi Poverty Assessment, is structured as follows. It first presents the data and empirical strategy. Chapter two presents poverty data and discusses the intersection of poverty and gender. Poverty by household composition is essential for understanding gendered differences in poverty. From there, chapter three explores gender disparities in economic opportunities, following the analytical framework cited earlier. The authors will then move to potential drivers of economic outcomes: endowments (chapter four) and agency (chapter five). The last section offers conclusions.
Poverty --- Sex differences. --- Sex discrimination against women
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This paper estimates the impact of armed conflict on subsequent health outcomes using detailed geographic information on households' distance from conflict sites--a more accurate measure of conflict exposure-- and compares the impact on children exposed in utero versus after birth. The identification strategy relies on exogenous variation in the conflict's geographic extent and timing as well as the exposure of different birth cohorts while in utero or after birth. Results show that war-exposed children subsequently have lower height-for-age Z-scores, and impacts using GPS information are 87-188% larger than if exposure is measured at the imprecise regional level. Effects of in utero and after birth exposure are comparable in magnitude, and children in the war instigating and losing country (Eritrea) suffer more than the winning nation (Ethiopia). Results are robust to including region-specific time trends, alternative conflict exposure measures, and addressing potential bias due to selective migration.
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Poverty estimates usually lag behind two years, which makes it difficult to provide real-time poverty analysis to assess the impact of economic crisis and shocks among the less well-off, and subsequently limits policy responses. This paper takes advantage of up-to-date average economic welfare indicators like the gross domestic product per capita and comprehensive harmonized micro data of more than 180 household surveys in 15 Latin American countries. The paper tests three commonly used poverty nowcasting methods and ranks their performance by comparing country-specific and regional poverty nowcasts with actual poverty estimates for 2003-14 period. The validation results show that the two bottom-up approaches, which simulate the performance of each agent in the economy to nowcast overall poverty, perform relatively better than the top-down approach, which uses welfare estimates to explain the performance of poverty at an aggregate level over time. The results are robust to additional sensitivity and robustness tests.
Distributed Energy --- Feed-In Tariffs --- Metering --- Off-Grid Pv --- Photovoltaic --- Solar
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