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The annual electricity investments needed in the Middle East and North Africa region to keep up with demand have been estimated at about 3 percent of the region's projected gross domestic product. However, in most economies of the region, the ability to make those investments is limited by fiscal and macroeconomic constraints. This paper demonstrates that the solution is readily available: by improving the management and performance of the region's utilities, more than enough resources could be freed up to make the investments needed. The paper presents the first evaluation of the size and composition of the quasi-fiscal deficit associated with the management of the electricity sector in 14 economies in the Middle East and North Africa region. The estimations are for 2013. They show that the average quasi-fiscal deficit is 4.4 percent of gross domestic product (but goes down to 2.9 percent if Lebanon, Djibouti, Bahrain, and Jordan are excluded). Only five economies have a quasi-fiscal deficit below 3 percent of gross domestic product (Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, Qatar, and the West Bank), and hence would not be able to finance the average investment requirement through elimination of inefficiencies. For most economies, the main driver of the quasi-fiscal deficit is the underpricing of electricity, which costs on average 3.2 percent of gross domestic product (but 2.2 percent without Lebanon, Djibouti, Bahrain, and Jordan). Commercial inefficiency comes next, at an average cost of 0.6 percent of gross domestic product. Technical and labor inefficiencies represent, respectively, 0.4 and 0.2 percent of gross domestic product.

Fiscal policy.

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The electricity sector in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) suffers from a major paradox. Indeed, while the region continues to hold the world's largest oil and gas reserves and has been able to maintain electricity access rates of close to 100 percent in most of its economies, it may not be in a position to cater to the future electricity needs of its fast-growing population and their business activities. The region's primary energy demand is expected to continue to grow at an annual rate of 1.9 percent through 2035, requiring a significant increase in capacity. Investments have not been rising fast enough to meet those expectations. The main point of this report is to provide quantitative evidence of how improving utility management and more accurately targeting smaller subsidies would free up enough resources to make the needed investments and operate the sector at a lower cost. These management and policy changes would make electricity production and consumption more affordable for the region's taxpayers and could even make it more affordable for the poorest. They would also ease the transition toward renewable energy sources, reducing the dependency on imports for some economies and, for the economies that export oil and gas, extending the asset life of their nonrenewable resources.

Electric utilities --- Energy policy