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With almost 50 per cent of the working age population not working, improving labour market performance represents an essential and daunting challenge for Poland. While some of today’s joblessness is cyclical in nature, most of it appears to be structural. This paper argues that to increase employment levels policy will need to focus on reducing significantly the inactivity traps inherent in the Polish personal transfer system, while improving the efficiency and targeting of social transfers to ensure resources flow to those truly in need. Simultaneously, efforts must be extended to increase firms' propensity to hire the outof-work, by lowering the costs of low-skill labour, reducing associated administrative and regulatory costs and in the longer term by providing graduates with more relevant skills. This paper outlines reforms in each of these areas which, if implemented, would serve to reverse the recent decline in employment and improve the fairness of income ...

Economics --- Poland

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Depuis le début des années 90, lorsque le déficit des administrations publiques de la France avait atteint le niveau inquiétant de 6 pour cent du PIB, les finances publiques du pays se sont nettement redressées, même si de nouvelles améliorations substantielles sont nécessaires. Ce document examine les outils dont disposent les décideurs publics pour relever ce défi. Il en ressort clairement que, étant donné la part relativement réduite du budget de l'État dans les dépenses totales, le secteur de l'État ne peut à lui seul résoudre le problème. Le système de sécurité sociale, principale source de la poussée des dépenses, a un rôle à jouer, mais il en va de même des administrations infranationales - surtout si le transfert prévu de nouvelles compétences à l'échelon local se réalise. Pour pouvoir orienter la dépense publique de manière à créer des marges de manœuvre, les décideurs publics devront clarifier les structures de gouvernance de façon que les responsables de l'administration ...

Public administration.

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This paper examines within an international context, the healthcare system in Hungary. While the system resembles in many of its broad features those of other OECD countries, Hungarians have the lowest life expectancy in the OECD and its rate of increase over the last 20 years has been much slower than in the rest of the area. The Hungarian health system is relatively resource intensive and is characterised by high hospitalisation rates, an excess supply of specialists and perverse incentives both for doctors and hospital administrators. Budgetary rules prevent hospitals from properly amortising investments and limit their capacity to manage labour costs. Furthermore inadequate supervision of billing by the state administrator has led to a fraudulent inflation in both the number and the “seriousness” of treatments. Recent reforms have concentrated on containing costs but efforts to improve service delivery and health outcomes have been plagued by problems of institutional conflict ...

Economics --- Hungary

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This paper summarizes the World Bank's approach to identifying parameters for key equations in its macro structural model for countries where short sample sizes or major structural changes render traditional time-series approaches infeasible or yield unstable estimates. To identify parameters that could be used in such cases, a cointegrating panel approach is followed that yields a common long-run estimate of parameters for key equations (to test the theoretical restrictions imposed in the model) and short-run disequilibrium estimates that vary by country. This approach is preferred to pure calibration or Bayesian estimation, because the functional forms imposed in the panel are consistent with those used in the macro structural model.

Cointegrated Panels --- Economic Forecasting --- Economic Theory and Research --- Macroeconomic Model --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Structural Equations

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This paper examines economic challenges posed by the combination of an ageing and declining population in Hungary and develops policy-oriented recommendations for addressing them. The authors identify the scale and specific properties of the demographic problem in Hungary where the population started to decline earlier than in any other OECD country. Public support for the elderly is provided by the social-security pension system and the healthcare system. While the former was reformed with partial success in the late 1990s, the latter developed less successfully, threatening to generate massive deficits in the long run. Projections indicate that even the public pension system may become unsustainable, unless the authorities restore the parameters of the original reform and encourage successfully higher labour force participation. In this context, measures to improve employability of the numerically strong and growing Roma minority are particularly pertinent. The healthcare sector ...

Economics --- Hungary