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Macroeconomic variables and changes in foreign reserves affect the secondary market price of Brady bonds in Bulgaria. So do changes in the external environment, including crises in other parts of the world. - To analyze the main determinants of secondary market prices of Bulgarian Brady bonds, Budina and Mantchev investigate to what extent fluctuations in domestic fundamentals affect the bonds' secondary market price. They also assess the extent to which external shocks affect the bonds' prices. They estimate the long-term relationship between domestic fundamentals and market prices of the bonds, using cointegration techniques. In the long run, they find that gross foreign reserves and exports had a positive effect on bond prices and the real exchange rate and Mexico's nominal exchange rate depreciation had a negative effect. In the short run, the Asian crisis had a negative impact, and Bulgaria's change in political regime and introduction of a currency board had a positive impact. Mexico's economic crisis in 1995 had contagion effects. The authors' empirical results confirm the view that the so-called fundamentals approach should be used to supplement the analysis of spillover effects for Bulgarian Brady bonds. This paper - a product of Macroeconomics and Growth, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study transition economies. The authors may be contacted at nbudina@worldbank.org or tmantchev@hotmail.com.

Financial literacy.

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This paper provides country-specific information on fiscal rules in use in 81 countries from 1985 to end-September 2012. It serves as background material and update of the July 2012 Working Paper “Fiscal Rules in Response to the Crisis—Toward the ‘Next Generation’ Rules: A New Dataset” and is also available in an easy accessible electronic data visualization tool (http://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/FiscalRules/map/map.htm.).The dataset covers four types of rules: budget balance rules, debt rules, expenditure rules, and revenue rules, applying to the central or general government or the public sector. It also presents details on various characteristics of rules, such as their legal basis, coverage, escape clauses, as well as key supporting features such as independent monitoring bodies.

Finance, Public --- Debts, Public --- Law and legislation. --- Law --- Budgeting --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Fiscal Policy --- Structure, Scope, and Performance of Government --- National Deficit Surplus --- National Budget --- Budget Systems --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Public finance & taxation --- Budgeting & financial management --- Budget planning and preparation --- Expenditure --- Public debt --- Fiscal stance --- Fiscal rules --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Fiscal policy --- Budget --- Expenditures, Public --- Panama

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Zonder onderwerpscode: wereldeconomie, ontwikkelingsproblematiek

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Fiscal sustainability analysis (FSA) is an important component of macroeconomic analysis. The authors review various quantitative approaches to FSA with a major objective to bring these approaches together and to present a user-friendly tool for FSA that reflects modern developments. They combine a dynamic simulations approach with a simplified version of the steady-state consistency approach. They also incorporate two different methods to deal with uncertainty: user-defined stress tests and stochastic simulations. The tool goes further by evaluating the required fiscal adjustment as a consequence of the stochastic realizations of the exogenous variables. Furthermore, the fiscal sustainability tool incorporates an endogenous debt feedback rule for the primary surplus, a fiscal policy reaction function. Besides outlining the theoretical framework, the authors also present a case study for Turkey.

Balance of Payments --- Balance of Payments Crises --- Bank Policy --- Banks and Banking Reform --- Budget --- Business Cycle --- Central Bank --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Debt Management Policies --- Debt Markets --- Economic Stabilization --- Economic Theory and Research --- Emerging Markets --- Exchange --- External Debt --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Literacy --- Fiscal Deficits --- Fiscal Policies --- Fiscal Policy --- Future --- Guarantees --- Inflation --- International Economics & Trade --- Investment --- Investment Decisions --- Liabilities --- Macroeconomic Management --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Monetary Policy --- Private Sector Development --- Public Sector Expenditure Analysis and Management

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Fiscal sustainability analysis (FSA) is an important component of macroeconomic analysis. The authors review various quantitative approaches to FSA with a major objective to bring these approaches together and to present a user-friendly tool for FSA that reflects modern developments. They combine a dynamic simulations approach with a simplified version of the steady-state consistency approach. They also incorporate two different methods to deal with uncertainty: user-defined stress tests and stochastic simulations. The tool goes further by evaluating the required fiscal adjustment as a consequence of the stochastic realizations of the exogenous variables. Furthermore, the fiscal sustainability tool incorporates an endogenous debt feedback rule for the primary surplus, a fiscal policy reaction function. Besides outlining the theoretical framework, the authors also present a case study for Turkey.

Balance of Payments --- Balance of Payments Crises --- Bank Policy --- Banks and Banking Reform --- Budget --- Business Cycle --- Central Bank --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Debt Management Policies --- Debt Markets --- Economic Stabilization --- Economic Theory and Research --- Emerging Markets --- Exchange --- External Debt --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Literacy --- Fiscal Deficits --- Fiscal Policies --- Fiscal Policy --- Future --- Guarantees --- Inflation --- International Economics & Trade --- Investment --- Investment Decisions --- Liabilities --- Macroeconomic Management --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Monetary Policy --- Private Sector Development --- Public Sector Expenditure Analysis and Management