Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

What are the drivers of business cycle fluctuations? And how many are there? By documenting strong and predictable co-movement of real variables during the business cycle in a sample of advanced economies, we argue that most business cycle fluctuations are driven by one major factor. The positive co-movement of real output and inflation convincingly argues for a demand story. We propose a simple statistic that can compare data and models. Based on this statistic, we show that the recent vintage of structural economic models has difficulties replicating the stylized facts we document.

Business cycles --- Inflation (Finance) --- Capital productivity --- Capital output ratios --- Productivity of capital --- Industrial productivity --- Production (Economic theory) --- Government productivity --- Labor productivity --- Finance --- Natural rate of unemployment --- Economic cycles --- Economic fluctuations --- Cycles --- E-books --- Business cycles. --- Banks and Banking --- Econometrics --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Econometric and Statistical Methods: General --- Business Fluctuations --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Monetary Policy --- Econometric Modeling: General --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Economic growth --- Monetary economics --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Inflation targeting --- Econometric models --- Short term interest rates --- Prices --- Monetary policy --- Econometric analysis --- Financial services --- Interest rates --- United States

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

In this paper we develop a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model by means of which we seek to explain the long-run paths of a converging emerging market economy. We borrow a paradigm from the New Open Economy Macroeconomics literature and amend it to address specific features such as initial asymmetry in development and size of economies as well as different speed of capital accumulation. Using a calibration of productivity and deep parameters for the Czech economy we demonstrate the ability of the model to consistently replicate dynamics in key macroeconomic variables that are essential inputs for commonly used "gap models" in monetary policy routine. Based on the calibration we draw implications for future convergence of the Czech economy.

Exports and Imports --- Finance: General --- Foreign Exchange --- Production and Operations Management --- Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Economic Growth of Open Economies --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Trade: General --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Capacity --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Macroeconomics --- International economics --- Finance --- Real exchange rates --- Productivity --- Exports --- Emerging and frontier financial markets --- Total factor productivity --- International trade --- Financial markets --- Industrial productivity --- Financial services industry --- Czech Republic --- Equilibrium (Economics) --- Mathematical models. --- Economic policy.