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Many studies of the demand for money, covering a wide variety of economies, have demonstrated the importance of financial innovations and shifts in monetary policy regimes, but they have also illustrated the difficulty of measuring and assessing such changes. Because innovations and regime shifts have differed markedly across countries, international comparisons can help identify their effects. This paper reviews the literature on money demand comparisons, focusing primarily on industrial countries. It finds that innovations have had widespread effects, but also that the demand for money is not generally less stable now than it was before those changes occurred.
Money and Monetary Policy --- Demand for Money --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Monetary economics --- Demand for money --- Money --- United States
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Much of the debate about the management of financial crises has focused on structural and psychological issues regarding the conditions that are supposed to be necessary to restore investor confidence. Nonetheless, the paramount requirement in the short term is for countries in crisis to adopt correct macroeconomic policies. An analysis of conventional macroeconomic models reveals that countries can afford to run expansionary policies to restore internal balance only if they can afford to ignore the requirements for external balance. This arithmetic does not depend on whether macroeconomic policies were inappropriate before the crisis hit.
Exports and Imports --- Financial Risk Management --- Public Finance --- Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook: General --- International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Financial Crises --- Fiscal Policy --- International economics --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Macroeconomics --- Capital outflows --- Financial crises --- Capital inflows --- Capital flows --- Fiscal policy --- Balance of payments --- Capital movements --- Korea, Republic of
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The low level of primary commodity prices since 1985 is examined in the context of the behavior of those prices relative to prices of manufactured goods since 1854. The Prebisch-Singer hypothesis of a secular decline in relative commodity prices is sustained, but the recent decline is shown to be well outside the realm of historical experience. Commodity and manufactures prices are found to be cointegrated, conditional on the negative trend and a number of unexplained short-term swings. The earlier finding of a Gibson paradox is explained in terms of the difference between short- and long-run relationships.
Commercial products --- Commodities --- Commodity Markets --- Commodity price fluctuations --- Commodity price indexes --- Commodity prices --- Deflation --- Economic History: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics --- Economic sectors --- Growth and Fluctuations: General, International, or Comparative --- Industries: Manufacturing --- Industry Studies: Manufacturing: General --- Inflation --- Investment & securities --- Investments: Commodities --- Macroeconomics --- Manufacturing industries --- Manufacturing --- Price indexes --- Price Level --- Prices --- United Kingdom
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The international monetary system is largely the product of negotiations during World War II between U.S. and U.K. officials, led respectively by Harry Dexter White and John Maynard Keynes. The design of the system, especially the International Monetary Fund, reflects the U.S. plan much more than the British. That outcome resulted not only from the superior economic position of the United States but also from differences between White's and Keynes's views on key issues. Examination of White's economic papers shows that he was more multilateral than Keynes and placed a higher priority on monetary discipline.
Banks and Banking --- Investments: Metals --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Metals and Metal Products --- Cement --- Glass --- Ceramics --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Monetary economics --- Investment & securities --- Banking --- Currencies --- International monetary system --- Gold --- Credit --- Money --- International finance --- Banks and banking --- United States
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The International Monetary Fund was designed during World War II by men whose worldview had been shaped by the Great War and the Great Depression. Their views on how the postwar international monetary system should function were also shaped by their economics training and their nationalities. After the IMF began functioning as an institution, its evolution was similarly driven by a combination of political events (Suez, African independence, the collapse of global communism), economic events (the rising economic power of Europe, the Middle East, and Asia), and trends and cycles in economic theory (the monetary approach to the balance of payments, new classical economics, the rise and fall of the Washington Consensus). As they happened, these forces had effects that were perceived as adaptations to current events and new ideas within a fixed institutional structure and mandate. The cumulative effect of history on the institution has been rather more profound and requires a longer and larger perspective.
Economic history --- International Monetary Fund --- Internationaal monetair fonds --- International monetary fund --- History. --- Financial Risk Management --- Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions --- Economic History: Financial Markets and Institutions: General, International, or Comparative --- Financial Crises --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Labor Economics: General --- Monetary Policy --- Monetary economics --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Labour --- income economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Financial crises --- International monetary system --- Labor --- Exchange rates --- Inflation targeting --- Money --- Monetary policy --- Currencies --- International finance --- Labor economics --- United States --- Income economics
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A recent paper by Baba, Hendry, and Starr presents an error-correction model of the demand for M1 in the United States, which shows a dramatic improvement in both fit and stability over earlier models. This note estimates an alternative model with the same data set and draws two conclusions: that the improvements are due more to the use of complex dynamics than to the introduction of variables representing financial innovation, and that some of the economic properties are not robust with respect to minor changes in specification.
Banks and Banking --- Demand for Money --- Demand for money --- Finance --- Financial services --- Interest rates --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Monetary economics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Money --- Short term interest rates --- United States
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Forty years ago, Marcus Fleming and Robert Mundell developed independent models of macroeconomic policy in open economies. Why do we link the two, and why do we call the result the Mundell-Fleming, rather than Fleming-Mundell model?.
Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- History of Thought: Individuals --- General Aggregative Models: Keynes --- Keynesian --- Post-Keynesian --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Fiscal Policy --- Labor Economics: General --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Labour --- income economics --- Fiscal policy --- Conventional peg --- Labor --- Floating exchange rates --- Labor economics --- Italy --- Income economics
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The IMF was established in 1944 in part to “give confidence” to member countries by providing short-term credits. Although the intention was that the availability of the Fund’s resources should prevent countries from experiencing financial crises, in practice the institution often has found itself helping its members cope with crises after they occur. This paper examines how the role of the IMF as crisis manager has evolved over time, from its earliest loans to the exchange crisis that hit Mexico in December 1994. It argues that the defining moment for this role was the international debt crisis of 1982.
Banks and Banking --- Exports and Imports --- Financial Risk Management --- Money and Monetary Policy --- International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- International Policy Coordination and Transmission --- Financial Crises --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- International economics --- Monetary economics --- Banking --- Financial crises --- Credit --- Balance of payments need --- Capital outflows --- Money --- Balance of payments --- Current account deficits --- Capital movements --- Banks and banking --- Mexico
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IMF lending is conditional on a country's commitment to carry out an agreed program of economic policies. Unless that commitment is genuine and broadly held, the likelihood of implementation will be poor. Is there a conflict between national commitment and conditional finance? Are national authorities or other agents in the country less likely to "own" a reform program simply because it is conditionally financed? This paper argues that potential conflicts are reduced when program design takes the country's interests and circumstances into account and when conditionality results from a genuine process of interaction between the IMF and the borrower.
Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Investments: General --- Macroeconomics --- Political Economy --- Social Services and Welfare --- Policy Objectives --- Policy Designs and Consistency --- Policy Coordination --- International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Institutions and the Macroeconomy --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Government Policy --- Provision and Effects of Welfare Program --- Political economy --- International economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Social welfare & social services --- Capital inflows --- Exchange rates --- Structural reforms --- Depreciation --- Balance of payments --- Poverty reduction --- Poverty --- National accounts --- Economics --- Capital movements --- Saving and investment --- Spain
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Harry Dexter White, the principal architect of the international financial system established at the end of the Second World War, was arguably the most important U. S. government economist of the 20th century. His reputation, however, has suffered because of allegations that he spied for the Soviet Union. That charge has recently been revived by the declassification of documents showing that he met with Soviet agents in 1944 and 1945. Evaluation of that evidence in the context of White’s career and worldview casts doubt on the case against him and provides the basis for a more benign interpretation.
Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Public Finance --- Industries: Financial Services --- Exports and Imports --- Budgeting --- History of Thought: Individuals --- International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions --- Labor Economics: General --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- National Budget --- Budget Systems --- Labour --- income economics --- Monetary economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Finance --- International economics --- Budgeting & financial management --- Labor --- Currencies --- Money --- Administration in revenue administration --- Revenue administration --- Loans --- Financial institutions --- Bilateral trade agreements --- International trade --- Economic classification --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Labor economics --- Revenue --- Commercial treaties --- Budget --- Russian Federation --- Income economics
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