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This paper evaluates a microsimulation technique by comparing the simulated outcome of a program with its actual effect. The ex ante evaluation is carried out for a conditional cash transfer program, where poor households were given money if the children attended school. A model of occupational choice is used to simulate the expected impact of the program. The results suggest that the transfer would indeed increase school attendance and do more so among girls than boys. While the simulated effect tends to be larger than the actual effect, the latter lies within bootstrapped confidence intervals of the simulation.

School attendance --- Economic assistance, Domestic --- Poor --- Evaluation --- Econometric models. --- Programa de Educación, Salud y Alimentación (Mexico City, Mexico) --- Evaluation. --- Disadvantaged, Economically --- Economically disadvantaged --- Impoverished people --- Low-income people --- Pauperism --- Poor, The --- Poor people --- Anti-poverty programs --- Government economic assistance --- Absence from school --- Attendance, School --- Student attendance --- Truancy (Schools) --- Economic conditions --- PROGRESA --- Persons --- Social classes --- Poverty --- Economic policy --- National service --- Grants-in-aid --- School management and organization --- Mexico. --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Demography --- Education: General --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Labor Economics: General --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Economics of the Elderly --- Economics of the Handicapped --- Non-labor Market Discrimination --- Education --- Labour --- income economics --- Population & demography --- Wages --- Income --- Aging --- Labor economics --- Population aging --- Mexico

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From its early post-war catch-up phase, Germany’s formidable export engine has been its consistent driver of growth. But Germany has almost equally consistently run current account surpluses. Exports have powered the dynamic phases and helped emerge from stagnation. Volatile external demand, in turn, has elevated German GDP growth volatility by advanced countries’ standards, keeping domestic consumption growth at surprisingly low levels. As a consequence, despite the size of its economy and important labor market reforms, Germany’s ability to act as global locomotive has been limited. With increasing competition in its traditional areas of manufacturing, a more domestically-driven growth dynamic, especially in the production and delivery of services, will be good for Germany and for the global economy. Absent such an effort, German growth will remain constrained, and Germany will play only a modest role in spurring growth elsewhere.

Economic development --- Economic development. --- Development, Economic --- Economic growth --- Growth, Economic --- Economic policy --- Economics --- Statics and dynamics (Social sciences) --- Development economics --- Resource curse --- Exports and Imports --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Studies of Particular Policy Episodes --- Economic History: Macroeconomics --- Growth and Fluctuations: Europe: 1913 --- -Economywide Country Studies: Europe --- Comparative Studies of Particular Economies --- Trade: General --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Labor Economics: General --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Labour --- income economics --- International economics --- Exports --- Current account surpluses --- Labor markets --- Wages --- International trade --- Balance of payments --- Labor market --- Labor economics --- Germany

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This is on a highly topical issue and addresses a key policy issue for Europe—namely, reinforcing EMU institutional architecture along with the Banking Union. Some proposals have emerged in Europe, and it will be important to put out staff views on this issue. In that context, publication as an SDN is appropriate, given the high profile nature and relevance of the topic—much like the Banking Union paper done a few months ago.

Banks and Banking --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Budgeting --- Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook: General --- Financial Aspects of Economic Integration --- Intergovernmental Relations --- Federalism --- Secession --- International Fiscal Issues --- International Public Goods --- Fiscal Policy --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- National Budget --- Budget Systems --- Banking --- Budgeting & financial management --- Fiscal union --- Fiscal policy --- Fiscal governance --- Fiscal rules --- Budget planning and preparation --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Banks and banking --- Budget --- United States

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The crisis has exposed a critical gap in EMU: the capacity for country-level shocks, whether exogenous or home-grown, to spread across the euro area, calling into question the viability of the common currency. This paper explores the role that deeper fiscal integration can play in correcting architectural weaknesses in the system, reducing the incidence and severity of future crises and lending long-term credibility to the crisis measures in train. The Europeans have already taken important measures to improve economic and fiscal governance and steps to further fiscal integration have been proposed (Box 1). Country-level adjustment, euro area wide support via the ESM/EFSF and the OMT backstop, and progress toward a banking union are also substantial achievements, notwithstanding the fact that cross-border fiscal oversight and transfers raise difficult political issues. Going forward, the argument is that a clearer ex ante approach to fiscal discipline and transfers will further strengthen the architecture of EMU, ensuring the stability of the euro area. This paper complements a companion paper that investigates the role of a banking union for the euro area (IMF, 2013a).