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The financial crisis has led to a widespread loss of trust in financial intermediaries of all kinds, perhaps helping to open the way towards the general acceptance of alternative technologies. This paper briefly summarises the crypto-currency phenomenon, separating the ‘currency’ issues from the potential technology benefits. With respect to crypto currencies, the paper argues that these can’t undermine the ability of central banks to conduct monetary policy. They do, however, raise consumer protection and bank secrecy issues. The valuation of Bitcoins and price volatility issues are discussed, as well as electronic theft, contract failures, etc., all of which could result in large losses to users and hence ultimate costs to the taxpayer (e.g. the failure to provide adequate private pensions resulting in increased reliance on public pensions). The anonymity features of the crypto-currencies also facilitate tax evasion and money laundering, both of which are major public policy concerns. The technology associated with crypto-currencies, on the other hand, could ultimately shift the entire basis of trust involved in any financial transaction. It is an innovation that creates the ability to carry out transactions without the need for a trusted third party; i.e. a move towards trust-less transactions. This mechanism could work to eliminate the role of many intermediaries, thereby reducing transactions costs by introducing much needed competition to incumbent firms. The generic issues that policy makers need to examine are summarised.
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The financial crisis has led to a widespread loss of trust in financial intermediaries of all kinds, perhaps helping to open the way towards the general acceptance of alternative technologies. This paper briefly summarises the crypto-currency phenomenon, separating the ‘currency’ issues from the potential technology benefits. With respect to crypto currencies, the paper argues that these can’t undermine the ability of central banks to conduct monetary policy. They do, however, raise consumer protection and bank secrecy issues. The valuation of Bitcoins and price volatility issues are discussed, as well as electronic theft, contract failures, etc., all of which could result in large losses to users and hence ultimate costs to the taxpayer (e.g. the failure to provide adequate private pensions resulting in increased reliance on public pensions). The anonymity features of the crypto-currencies also facilitate tax evasion and money laundering, both of which are major public policy concerns. The technology associated with crypto-currencies, on the other hand, could ultimately shift the entire basis of trust involved in any financial transaction. It is an innovation that creates the ability to carry out transactions without the need for a trusted third party; i.e. a move towards trust-less transactions. This mechanism could work to eliminate the role of many intermediaries, thereby reducing transactions costs by introducing much needed competition to incumbent firms. The generic issues that policy makers need to examine are summarised.
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This paper is one of four in this Working Paper Series, focusing on financial liberalisation, along with those of Kupiec, Miller and Weller, and Driscoll. It examines the extent to which international financial markets have become more integrated over the past decade. The finding that financial markets are almost fully integrated, in contrast to goods markets which are not, has important implications for real interest rate differentials, real exchange rate behaviour and external adjustment. In particular, the reduced importance of external imbalance and the increased role of real interest rates in real exchange rate determination can be associated with more prolonged misalignments ...
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This paper brings together a number of interrelated issues concerning the implications of financial liberalisation for macroeconomic outcomes. Deregulation has tended to reduce the importance of liquidity constraints within and between countries, while at the same time giving markets a much greater role in utilising available information to achieve efficient outcomes. This has had implications for private spending behaviour and the transmission channels of monetary policy; for the volatility of financial prices; for the price and credit risks which arise; and for the integration of international financial markets and the process of external adjustment ...
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This working paper’s quantifications show that most sovereign debt is held on the banking books of banks, whereas the EU stress test considered only their small trading book exposures. It discusses why sovereign debt held in the banking book cannot be ignored by investors and creditors, because of: (a) recovery values in the event of individual bank failures; and (b) fiscal sustainability and structural competitiveness issues which mean the market cannot give a zero probability to debt restructurings beyond the period of the stress test and/or the period after which the role of the European Financial Stability Facility Special Purpose Vehicle (EFSF SPV) comes to an end. How the SPV could operate to shift sovereign risk from banks to the public sector is also an important part of the discussion.
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