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Co-movement (synchronicity) in inflation rates among a set of 13 emerging and developing countries in Asia is shown to be strongest for the food component, partly due to common rainfall shocks—a result which the paper terms the ‘monsoon effect.’ Economies with higher trade integration and co-movement in nominal effective exchange rates also experience greater food-inflation co-movement. By contrast, cross-country co-movement in core inflation is weak and the aforementioned determinants have little explanatory power, suggesting a prominent role for idiosyncratic domestic factors in driving core inflation. In the context of the growing literature on the globalization of inflation, these results suggest that common weather patterns are partly responsible for any role played by a so-called ‘global factor’ among inflation rates in emerging and developing economies, in Asia at least.

Inflation (Finance) --- Finance --- Natural rate of unemployment --- Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Economic Integration --- Globalization: Macroeconomic Impacts --- Financial Aspects of Economic Integration --- Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis --- Prices --- International economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Trade integration --- Nominal effective exchange rate --- Food prices --- Economic integration --- International economic integration --- India

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Gains in labor force participation rates in Chile have slowed in recent years. We examine their determinants using a cohort-model analysis. Allowing for both age- and cohort-specific effects in the context of a seemingly unrelated regression equations (SURE) approach, we find that age factors play an important role in determining participation decisions, especially for males. For females, we find that strong positive time trends dominate the downward pressure from demographics, although those trends have recently dissipated. In addition, we find that both cohort effects and the business cycle shape participation decisions. Using our cohort-based analysis, we construct projections of participation rates, which suggest population aging will put downward pressure on labor inputs, and thus potential output, in coming years. Further increases in female labor force participation—supported by policies— could more than offset the downward pressure from demographics.

Labor supply --- Labor supply. --- Labor force --- Labor force participation --- Labor pool --- Work force --- Workforce --- Labor market --- Human capital --- Labor mobility --- Manpower --- Manpower policy --- E-books --- Labor --- Demography --- Women''s Studies' --- Labor Economics Policies --- Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts --- Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure --- Labor Standards: Labor Force Composition --- Economics of the Elderly --- Economics of the Handicapped --- Non-labor Market Discrimination --- Economics of Gender --- Non-labor Discrimination --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Education: General --- Labour --- income economics --- Population & demography --- Gender studies --- women & girls --- Education --- Aging --- Women --- Population and demographics --- Gender --- Population aging --- Chile

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Using a multivariate filter, we estimate potential growth rates in Chile’s mining and non-mining sectors. Estimates for the mining sector incorporate information on copper prices, whereas estimates for non-mining reflect information on inflation and unemployment rates. To better understand the drivers of potential growth, we decompose estimates into capital, labor (adjusted for human-capital and hours worked), and total-factor productivity using a production-function. Our estimates of potential output in Chile suggest that an important part of the recent growth slowdown has been structural, with potential-output growth slowing to 2½ percent in recent years, although it plausibly could be higher in the medium-term.

Economic indicators --- Economic development --- Mineral industries --- Econometric models. --- Extractive industries --- Extractive industry --- Metal industries --- Mines and mining --- Mining --- Mining industry --- Mining industry and finance --- Industries --- Development, Economic --- Economic growth --- Growth, Economic --- Economic policy --- Economics --- Statics and dynamics (Social sciences) --- Development economics --- Resource curse --- Business indicators --- Indicators, Business --- Indicators, Economic --- Leading indicators --- Economic history --- Quality of life --- Economic forecasting --- Index numbers (Economics) --- Social indicators --- Macroeconomics --- Natural Resource Extraction --- Production and Operations Management --- Model Construction and Estimation --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Monetary Policy --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction: General --- Metals and Metal Products --- Cement --- Glass --- Ceramics --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Capacity --- Potential output --- Mining sector --- Output gap --- Metal prices --- Total factor productivity --- Economic sectors --- Prices --- Economic theory --- Metals --- Industrial productivity --- Chile

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Current fiscal transparency and reporting practices in India place it behind most peer G20 economies, implying that policy makers are lacking critical data to ground their fiscal and other economic planning decisions. The increasing use of off-budget financing at the central government level in recent years represents one key example of reduced transparency—we provide estimates of the public sector borrowing requirement and an extended notion of the fiscal deficit, each of which shows a more expansionary stance in recent years than ‘headline’ deficit figures presented in budget documents. We then investigate the current state of fiscal reporting practices in India and suggest areas for reforms—these include enhanced IT systems, stronger central-local coordination, and a gradual transition to accrual accounting.

Business and Economics --- Accounting --- Budgeting --- Public Finance --- Structure and Scope of Government: General --- National Budget, Deficit, and Debt: General --- Public Administration --- Public Sector Accounting and Audits --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- National Budget --- Budget Systems --- Public finance & taxation --- Financial reporting, financial statements --- Budgeting & financial management --- Government debt management --- Fiscal reporting --- Budget planning and preparation --- Fiscal transparency --- Fiscal risks --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Debts, Public --- Finance, Public --- Budget --- Fiscal policy --- India

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We study the inflation process in India, focusing on the periods before and after the adoption of flexible inflation-forecast targeting (FIT) in India. Our analysis uses several approaches including standard Phillips curve estimation for headline and core inflation, an examination of the sensitivity of medium-term inflation expectations to inflation surprises, and the properties of convergence between headline and core inflation. Results indicate an important role for domestic factors in driving the inflation process, and there is evidence that expectations have become more anchored since 2015. This result could be attributable to FIT adoption, or to persistently low food prices which dominate the post-FIT-adoption period. The policy implications of these structural changes in the inflation process are investigated using a semi-structural model calibrated to the Indian economy.

India