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As usual in this series, Chapter 1 reviews the configuration of global risks and assesses the outstanding short term opportunities and challenges facing the LAC region. A special focus is placed this time around on the difference between exposure and vulnerability to exogenous shocks, with the latter assessed by adjusting exposure for a country's shock absorption policy capacity. Given the global context and associated concerns with capital flow volatility, in Chapter 2 we take a look at the comparatively more stable components of international flows: FDI and Remittances. The cyclicality and volatility, as well as the joint determinants of FDI and Remittances are reviewed.

Caribbean Area --- Economic conditions.

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The Latin America and the Caribbean region is consolidating its recovery from the COVID-19 crisis, but the road ahead poses challenges: The damage inflicted by the pandemic on education and poverty require redress; new variants may appear; rising global inflation presents new policy dilemmas; and the long-standing reform agenda needed to lay the foundations for renewed and inclusive growth remains pending. Further, the global context is evolving rapidly. Over the medium term, the tragedy unfolding in Ukraine will affect the region through unpredictable channels. Over the longer term, increased global alarm over the pace of climate change raises new policy issues. The region's contribution to greenhouse gases is modest and can be reduced, but the impact of climate change on its people and productive sectors will require significant adaptation. The good news is that LAC's unique endowments positions it well to seize emerging green growth opportunities if well-managed. A key message is that improving the region's capability to adapt and innovate needs to be placed at the center of both the growth and greening agendas and can generate synergies between them.

Ecology. --- Economic history. --- Caribbean Area --- Economic conditions. --- Environmental conditions.

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Following the so-called "Golden Decade" (2003-2013) of rapid development and strong improvements in social indicators, economic growth has stalled in Latin America and the Caribbean region (LAC). Today, the external environment no longer provides tailwinds to foster an economic rebound. Foreign direct investment has moderated, trade has slowed amid elevated tensions, financing conditions are tightening, and commodity prices are expected to remain flat in the short and medium term. The region therefore needs to find internal sources of growth and focus on a productivity-enhancing reform agenda. The report analyzes the structural transformation process in LAC and evaluates if the "premature de-industrialization" patterns observed in the data are a result of distortive policies or if they represent an efficient reallocation of resources responding to the underlying drivers of structural transformation. An important message of the report is that policy makers should not focus on sectoral size but rather on productivity growth. The emergence of new technologies--under the banner of the "Fourth Industrial Revolution"--suggests that opportunities for further industrialization or re-industrialization are likely to be limited in many developing countries. Looking forward, the region needs to develop a productivity agenda with a special focus on the services sector. Already the largest employer in the region with over 60 percent of the workforce, the services sector is expected to grow even further and play an increasingly crucial role as an input provider to the larger economy. In short, there is a need for a comprehensive set of service-sector oriented policies. The report concludes that three major economic forces are changing the nature of work and the demand for skills. First, the structural transformation process and the de-industrialization pattern observed for the economies in the region imply that future job growth will occur mainly in the services sector. Second, the shift in economic structure is being accompanied by a transformation of the occupational structure within broad economic sectors. The importance of service occupations-those that produce intangible value-added such as marketers, managers, designers--is increasing in all sectors of the economy. Third, as machines replace humans in carrying out simpler, more routine tasks, workers will have to adapt and perform a different set of tasks in the workplace. Adult learning and re-training may become more important as new automation technologies are adopted in LAC countries--

Labor market --- Service industries --- Latin America --- Caribbean Area --- Economic conditions

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As usual in this series, Chapter 1 reviews the configuration of global risks and assesses the outstanding short term opportunities and challenges facing the LAC region. We document the significant slowdown in economic activity across the region, and explore the possibility of this being the 'new normal'. In Chapter 2 we assess if the major social gains achieved during the 'Golden Decade', in particular the decline in inequality, will hold in this less supportive environment, and discuss alternative policy responses to preserve and further the equity gains in the region.

Business --- Business Cycle --- Decentralization --- Equity --- Growth --- Inequality --- Inflation --- Macroeconomic Determinants of Inequality --- Social Agenda --- Stability