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This paper estimates public sector service efficiency in England at the sub-regional level, studying changes post crisis during the large fiscal consolidation effort. It finds that despite the overall spending cut (and some caveats owing to data availability), efficiency broadly improved across sectors, particularly in education. However, quality adjustments and other factors could have contributed (e.g., sector and technology-induced reforms). It also finds that sub-regions with the weakest initial levels of efficiency converged the most post crisis. These sub-regional changes in public sector efficiency are associated with changes in labor productivity. Finally, the paper finds that regional disparities in the productivity of public services have narrowed, especially in the education and health sectors, with education attainment, population density, private spending on high school education and class size being to be the most important factors explaining sub-regional variation since 2003.

Government marketing. --- Municipal services. --- Medical care. --- Delivery of health care --- Delivery of medical care --- Health care --- Health care delivery --- Health services --- Healthcare --- Medical and health care industry --- Medical services --- Personal health services --- Public health --- Municipal services within corporate limits --- Public services --- Municipal government --- Public utilities --- Marketing, Government --- Marketing, Public sector --- Public sector marketing --- Marketing --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Publicly Provided Goods: General --- State and Local Government --- Intergovernmental Relations: General --- Public Enterprises --- Public-Private Enterprises --- Education: General --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Health: General --- National Government Expenditures and Education --- Public finance & taxation --- Civil service & public sector --- Education --- Health economics --- Public sector --- Expenditure --- Health --- Education spending --- Economic sectors --- Expenditures, Public --- Finance, Public --- United Kingdom

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Employing a dynamic panel regression, this study estimates the medium-term current account position for three subgroups of emerging market and developing countries with shared economic characteristics. The fundamental determinants of the macroeconomic balance approach to current account determination (arising from the IMF's Consultative Group on Exchange Rate (CGER)) are augmented by determinants relevant to Middle Eastern economies' current account positions. The study also assesses the deviation of the actual medium-term current account position of three Middle Eastern subgroups of countries (emerging markets; low-income and fragile economies; and net oil exporters) from their medium-term current account norms. Key findings are that: augmentation of the fundamental determinants yields plausible Middle Eastern current account norms; and in comparison with the medium-term current account norm, the actual and projected current account imbalances of each of the three subgroups are typically not excessive.

Balance of payments. --- Current account balance (International trade) --- International payments, Balance of --- Foreign exchange --- Terms of trade --- Balance of trade --- International liquidity --- Investments: Energy --- Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Fiscal Policy --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Energy: General --- Investment & securities --- International economics --- Finance --- Currency --- Oil --- Current account --- Fiscal stance --- Foreign direct investment --- Real effective exchange rates --- Commodities --- Balance of payments --- Fiscal policy --- Petroleum industry and trade --- Investments, Foreign --- Saudi Arabia

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We build and estimate open economy two-bloc DSGE models to study the transmission and impact of shocks in Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United Kingdom. After accounting for country-specific fiscal and monetary sectors, we estimate their key policy and structural parameters. Our findings suggest that not only has output responded differently to shocks due to differing levels of diversification and structural and policy settings, but also the responses to fiscal consolidation differ: Russia would benefit from a smaller state foot-print, while in Saudi Arabia, unless this is accompanied by structural reforms that remove rigidities, output would fall. We also find that lower oil prices need not be bad news given more oil-intensive production structures. However, lower oil prices have hurt these oil producers as their public finances depend heavily on oil, among other factors. Productivity gains accompanied by ambitious structural reforms, along with fiscal and monetary reforms could support these economies to achieve better outcomes when oil prices fall, including via diversifying exports.

Macroeconomics. --- Economics --- Russia --- Saudi Arabia --- Great Britain --- Economic conditions. --- Investments: Energy --- Macroeconomics --- Taxation --- Bayesian Analysis: General --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Fiscal Policy --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Labor Economics: General --- Energy: General --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Business Taxes and Subsidies --- Labour --- income economics --- Investment & securities --- Public finance & taxation --- Oil prices --- Labor --- Oil --- Consumption --- Oil, gas and mining taxes --- Commodities --- Taxes --- National accounts --- Labor economics --- Petroleum industry and trade --- Income economics

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How much does speculation contribute to oil price volatility? We revisit this contentious question by estimating a sign-restricted structural vector autoregression (SVAR). First, using a simple storage model, we show that revisions to expectations regarding oil market fundamentals and the effect of mispricing in oil derivative markets can be observationally equivalent in a SVAR model of the world oil market à la Kilian and Murphy (2013), since both imply a positive co-movement of oil prices and inventories. Second, we impose additional restrictions on the set of admissible models embodying the assumption that the impact from noise trading shocks in oil derivative markets is temporary. Our additional restrictions effectively put a bound on the contribution of speculation to short-term oil price volatility (lying between 3 and 22 percent). This estimated short-run impact is smaller than that of flow demand shocks but possibly larger than that of flow supply shocks.

Petroleum industry and trade -- Econometric models. --- Petroleum products -- Prices -- Econometric models. --- Speculation -- Econometric models. --- United States

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This paper examines housing finance and housing price dynamics in selected emerging Middle Eastern economies over the past two decades. It finds that (i) mortgage markets have experienced rapid development, which has led to lower private per capita consumer spending volatility this decade; (ii) a downward price correction occurred in the housing market after 2007, which appears to have bottomed out; (iii) the rental market appears to be largely determined by region-specific economic fundamentals-a youthful working-age population and wealth variables; and (iv) a segregation between self-owned house and rental price dynamics exists in this region, rendering the former more sensitive to the business cycle.

Housing --- Finance --- Prices --- Affordable housing --- Homes --- Houses --- Housing needs --- Residences --- Slum clearance --- Urban housing --- Social aspects --- City planning --- Dwellings --- Human settlements --- Infrastructure --- Macroeconomics --- Real Estate --- Industries: Financial Services --- Housing Supply and Markets --- Economic Development: Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Property & real estate --- Economic growth --- Housing prices --- Consumption --- Business cycles --- Saving and investment --- Economics --- Kuwait