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Book
USCG Project Evergreen V : compilation of activities and summary of results

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Abstract

The U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) carries out 11 different statutory missions and must address immediate requirements and future contingencies, both domestically and overseas. Various ongoing changes to, and new developments in, the physical, economic, social, political, and technological domains place additional stresses on service resources, as well as affect the composition of the service itself. Being ready for the spectrum of challenges that the future might bring requires leaders to be mindful of how change will affect USCG in both the near and long terms. Evergreen was established in 2003 to address this overarching goal of readiness, and it includes Project Evergreen, a scenario-based strategic foresight planning process. Evergreen activities seek to identify emerging challenges and future trends that may alter the volume and types of demand for USCG missions, as well as its ability to perform them. These activities are based on a number of plausible future scenarios in which USCG's current plans, policies, and capabilities are stress-tested, and participants must determine the trade-offs that USCG needs to make today to be able to fulfill future demands. Evergreen thereby also supports effective decisionmaking under conditions of uncertainty. Prior to Evergreen V, there was no deliberate effort to publicize or publish Evergreen products. Long-term institutional knowledge about Evergreen has been a historical challenge because active-duty personnel are typically reassigned every one to three years. This report documents Evergreen work and insights into the current and future needs of USCG that have emerged from the program to date.


Book
Criminal History Record Information Sharing with the Defense Counterintelligence and Security Agency: Education and Training Materials for State, Local, Tribal, and Territorial Partners

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The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) Defense Counterintelligence and Security Agency (DCSA) is the federal agency responsible for conducting the background investigations and personnel vetting for 95 percent of the federal workforce, including current and prospective federal government employees and contractors. DCSA collects relevant criminal history record information (CHRI) as part of these investigations from federal and state, local, tribal, and territorial (SLTT) law enforcement and criminal justice agencies. SLTT organizations, however, are often unaware of DCSA's role, responsibilities, and authorities and unaccustomed to CHRI collection and federal background investigations generally. This lack of awareness can impede or delay DCSA's collection of CHRI. In turn, it can slow the investigation and vetting process for federal employees and contractors. To help address this challenge, Congress authorized DCSA to provide training and education assistance to SLTT communities in 2020 to streamline and improve access to historical criminal record data. DCSA then requested assistance from the RAND Corporation's National Defense Research Institute with developing educational and training materials to use in support of these activities. The objective of these materials is to develop and deepen SLTT agencies' knowledge and understanding of their federal statutory obligations to share CHRI with DCSA and to facilitate more effective and efficient CHRI sharing. The intent of these materials is to help create a more robust partnership between DCSA and the more than 18,000 law enforcement and criminal justice agencies nationwide. This report presents these materials and the underlying research conducted to build them.


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Incorporating Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion Considerations into the 2021 Department of the Air Force Developmental Education Selection Boards: Analysis of Outcomes

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The Department of the Air Force (DAF) promulgates directives, memorandums of instructions, and other guidance embracing the importance of diversity. Indeed, DAF Senior Leadership is on record stating that diversity is a mission imperative. Yet, demographic data have been masked for most boards making decisions about career development and promotions. The DAF wanted to assess the efficacy of making demographic data visible to board members. The 2021 Central Professional Military Education Program (CPME) Boards provided an opportunity to test the effects of unmasking the data to board members. In addition, the DAF implemented two other diversity and inclusion–related changes for the 2021 CPME board: (1) board members underwent unconscious bias training, and (2) instructions to board members concerning consideration of race, ethnicity, and gender were modified. In this report, the authors present the results of analyses comparing the 2020 outcomes (before the changes in guidance) with the 2021 outcomes (after the changes). In conducting this research, the project team used a mixed-methods approach. Specifically, the team analyzed board inputs and selection outcomes for the 2020 CPME board (before the changes) and 2021 CPME board (after the changes) to assess the effects on the selection likelihood for minority versus nonminority members; conducted semistructured interviews with 2020 and 2021 board members to learn about their experiences and how they interpreted and applied the new instructions to illuminate the quantitative patterns in the data; and reviewed relevant literature to identify trends that might assist the DAF in implementing the proposed changes.

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Book
A throughput-based analysis of Army active component/reserve component mix for major contingency surge operations

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This report examines how well the processes and timeline for generating ready forces from the Army reserve component (RC) units align with a need for rapid deployment to a future major conflict overseas. The report focuses on how the dynamics of the mobilization process for Army RC units can, or should, affect decisionmaking about force mix, as well as how policy and resourcing decisions can enhance or inhibit the speed and efficiency of mobilization. We created two models to simulate the effects of various changes to the mobilization and postmobilization training pipeline, to explore key drivers of training throughput, and to identify major bottlenecks that can inhibit fast and efficient mobilization of RC units. The analysis found that the sequence in which large and small units in the RC and active component (AC) units are put into the training pipeline affects the speed at which demand in the theater of operation can be met. Deploying smaller, quicker-to-train RC units in the earlier periods of a conflict and deferring the use of the larger, more complex-to-train RC formations to later stages of major operations appear to maximize the output of training facilities. The speed of deployment in a no-notice or short-notice mobilization may also be improved by maintaining a certain level of readiness in select RC units. For the Total Force structure, the findings suggest that the unit size and complexity should be considerations in allocation of force structure between the AC and the RC.

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