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This paper provides an empirical benchmarking of growth, productivity and export patterns for developing NREs against other low and middle income developing countries, to inform policy discussions and future analytical work. There is stark heterogeneity in the association of resource sector and overall growth outcomes, by commodity and degree of dependence. Over the long term, inter-sectoral growth dynamics have been more muted for NREs than other developing countries, especially at lower incomes. Despite productivity convergence in mining, as expected, productivity growth in manufacturing and services was generally lower in NREs. Exceptions are few, in East Asia and the CIS area which experienced broad-based productivity growth. NRE product exports are more concentrated and relatively less complex, though we find increasingly diversified service export baskets. Technological progress and specialization in trade in services may offer diversification options for the future.
Nonrenewable natural resources --- Exports --- Economic development --- Non-renewable natural resources --- Exhaustible resources --- Natural resources, Nonrenewable --- Natural resources --- Economic aspects --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- Global Outlook --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Trade: General --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Human Capital --- Skills --- Occupational Choice --- Labor Productivity --- International economics --- Personal income --- Service exports --- Productivity --- Labor productivity --- National accounts --- International trade --- Production --- Income --- Industrial productivity --- Indonesia
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Sub-Saharan African countries as a group showed a considerable reduction in public and external indebtedness in the early 2000s as a result of debt relief programs, higher economic growth, and improved fiscal management for some countries. More recently, however, vulnerabilities in some countries are on the rise, including a few with very rapid debt accumulation. This paper looks at the heterogeneous experiences across Sub-Saharan African countries and the detailed dynamics that have driven changes in public debt since the global financial crisis. Borrowing to support fiscal deficits since 2009, including through domestic markets and Eurobond issuance, has driven a net increase in public debt for all countries except oil exporters benefitting from buoyant commodity prices and fragile states receiving post-2008 Highly Indebted Poor Country relief. Current account deficits and foreign direct investment inflows drove the external debt dynamics, with balance of payments problems associated with very rapid external debt accumulation in some cases. Pockets of increasing vulnerabilities of debt financing profiles and sensitivity of debt burden indicators to macro-fiscal shocks require close monitoring. Specific risks that policy makers in Sub-Saharan Africa need to pay attention to going forward include the recent fall in commodity prices, especially oil, the slowdown in China and the sluggish recovery in Europe, dependence on non-debt-creating flows, and accounting for contingent liabilities.
Access to finance --- Bankruptcy and resolution of financial distress --- Debt markets --- Debt sustainability --- Economic theory & research --- External debt --- Finance and financial sector development --- International economics & trade --- Macroeconomics and economic growth --- Public debt
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This paper shows how Dutch disease effects may arise solely from a shift in demand following a natural resource discovery. The natural resource wealth increases the demand for non-tradable luxury services due to non-homothetic preferences. Labor that could be used to develop other non-resource tradable sectors is pulled into these service sectors. As a result, manufactures and other tradable goods are more likely to be imported, and learning and productivity improvements accrue to the foreign exporters. However, once the natural resources diminish, there is less income to purchase the services and non-resource tradable goods. Thus, the temporary gain in purchasing power translates into long-term stagnation. As opposed to conventional models where income distribution has no effect on economic outcomes, an unequal distribution of the rents from resource wealth further intensifies the Dutch disease dynamics within this framework.
Contamination --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- E-Business --- Economic Theory & Research --- Emerging Markets --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Fixed Effect Model --- Internet Adoption --- Labor Policies --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Paper Consumption --- Private Sector Development --- Social Protections and Labor
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Sub-Saharan African countries as a group showed a considerable reduction in public and external indebtedness in the early 2000s as a result of debt relief programs, higher economic growth, and improved fiscal management for some countries. More recently, however, vulnerabilities in some countries are on the rise, including a few with very rapid debt accumulation. This paper looks at the heterogeneous experiences across Sub-Saharan African countries and the detailed dynamics that have driven changes in public debt since the global financial crisis. Borrowing to support fiscal deficits since 2009, including through domestic markets and Eurobond issuance, has driven a net increase in public debt for all countries except oil exporters benefitting from buoyant commodity prices and fragile states receiving post-2008 Highly Indebted Poor Country relief. Current account deficits and foreign direct investment inflows drove the external debt dynamics, with balance of payments problems associated with very rapid external debt accumulation in some cases. Pockets of increasing vulnerabilities of debt financing profiles and sensitivity of debt burden indicators to macro-fiscal shocks require close monitoring. Specific risks that policy makers in Sub-Saharan Africa need to pay attention to going forward include the recent fall in commodity prices, especially oil, the slowdown in China and the sluggish recovery in Europe, dependence on non-debt-creating flows, and accounting for contingent liabilities.
Access to finance --- Bankruptcy and resolution of financial distress --- Debt markets --- Debt sustainability --- Economic theory & research --- External debt --- Finance and financial sector development --- International economics & trade --- Macroeconomics and economic growth --- Public debt
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