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There have been several episodes of financial market "contagion" in the 1990s. Is contagion driven by herd behavior? Does it reflect fundamental economic linkages between countries? Or are episodes of contagion driven by investor learning and risk reassessment about a select group of countries? We pursue these questions by studying the persistence in the spillover of shocks following the bond market developments in Hong Kong SAR in 1997. Our results suggest that this contagion, at least for a few countries, was a consequence of adverse sentiment shifts arising from investor learning and was not merely driven by changes in fundamentals.
Banks and Banking --- Finance: General --- Foreign Exchange --- Money and Monetary Policy --- International Finance: General --- Information and Market Efficiency --- Event Studies --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Finance --- Monetary economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Securities markets --- Yield curve --- Emerging and frontier financial markets --- Monetary base --- Real exchange rates --- Financial markets --- Financial services --- Money --- Capital market --- Interest rates --- Financial services industry --- Money supply --- Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China
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The assessment provides evidence of market segmentation across Islamic and conventional banks in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), leading to excess liquidity, and an uneven playing field for Islamic banks that might affect their growth. Liquidiy management has been a long-standing concern in the global Islamic finance industry as there is a general lack of Shari’ah compliant instruments than can serve as high-quality short-term liquid assets. The degree of segmentation and bank behavior varies across countries depending on Shari’ah permissibility and the availability of Shari’ah-compliant instruments. A partial response would be to support efforts to build Islamic liquid interbank and money markets, which are crucial for monetary policy transmission through the Islamic financial system.This can be achieved, to a large extent, by deepening Islamic government securities and developing Shari’ah-compliant money market instruments.
Banks and Banking --- Finance: General --- Islamic Banking and Finance --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Monetary Policy --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Policy Objectives --- Policy Designs and Consistency --- Policy Coordination --- Other Economic Systems: Public Economics --- Financial Economics --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Portfolio Choice --- Investment Decisions --- Banking --- Finance --- Islamic banking --- Money markets --- Monetary operations --- Islamic finance --- Financial services --- Financial markets --- Central banks --- Liquidity management --- Asset and liability management --- Banks and banking --- Islamic countries --- Money market --- Liquidity --- Economics --- United Arab Emirates
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This paper proposes a framework to check for consistency between the IMF's standard country surveillance tool, namely medium-term projections of the macroeconomic framework (including the real, fiscal, external, and monetary sectors), and the financial sector. Consistency here entails that the financial sector remain solvent in the medium term under the assumptions of the macroeconomic framework and that the macroeconomic framework is fine-tuned should threats to financial sector solvency arise as a result of assumptions underlying the medium-term macroeconomic framework projections. The proposed framework can also be used to conduct sensitivity analysis of the aggregated financial sector to various types of risks, including foreign exchange, interest rate, and credit risk. For surveillance purposes, this framework can easily be integrated into one of the standard sectoral files so that any update to the macroeconomic framework automatically feeds into the financial sector medium-term projections. We anticipate the proposed framework to be of interest to IMF economists as well as outside analysts.
Risk management. --- Financial crises. --- Crashes, Financial --- Crises, Financial --- Financial crashes --- Financial panics --- Panics (Finance) --- Stock exchange crashes --- Stock market panics --- Crises --- Insurance --- Management --- Banks and Banking --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Industries: Financial Services --- Financial Institutions and Services: General --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Banking --- International economics --- Financial sector --- Commercial banks --- Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts --- Foreign assets --- Financial services industry --- Banks and banking --- Economic forecasting --- Investments, Foreign
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The transition to a sustainable future in the Asia-Pacific region has global economic significance. Despite driving global growth in recent years, the region's heavy coal reliance led to significant greenhouse gas emissions. Meeting climate mitigation and adaptation needs in emerging and developing Asia requires investment of at least $1.1 trillion annually. Actual investment falls short by about $800 billion. Asia-Pacific’s environmental performance has also hampered its ability to tap into private flows from the fast-growing ESG asset class, keeping the cost of issuing sustainable debt instruments relatively high compared to other regions. This paper provides an overview of the climate finance ecosystem in countries in the Asia-Pacific region and presents strategies to mobilize climate finance for the region’s transition to a sustainable future. The paper identifies challenges, including gaps in the climate information architecture, policy conflicts, global complexities, and emphasizes the need for coordinated action involving governments, central banks, financial supervisors, the IMF, and other multilateral institutions. In particular, • Governments need to establish a well-defined climate strategy with strong institutional oversight and coordination to strengthen the framework on data, taxonomies, and disclosures. Fossil fuel subsidies should be phased out and carbon pricing schemes expanded to create fiscal space for sustainable investments. Strengthening macroeconomic management is essential to attract private capital. • Financial supervisors and central banks should coordinate across jurisdictions to promote global, interoperable disclosure standards, enhance climate risk analysis and reporting, and incorporate climate-related financial risks into prudential frameworks. Developing climate labels for sustainable investment funds and shifting the focus of ESG scores to better capture sustainability and climate impact would foster trust in the evaluations. The IMF can drive climate action by integrating discussions in surveillance activities and strengthening data and statistics—including through capacity building and peer learning—to develop common standards around climate risk measurement and analysis. The Resilience and Sustainability Trust could contribute to reducing financing gaps through its catalytic and reform supporting functions, while multilateral development banks could scale up grant financing and concessional lending, and where appropriate adopt risk-mitigating mechanisms to expand lending capacity. Cooperation among multilateral institutions is essential to align efforts and resources to achieve a balanced allocation between mitigation and adaptation lending.
Climate change --- Climate finance --- Climate policy --- Climate --- Climatic changes --- Comparative Studies of Countries --- Computer Programs: General --- Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology --- Economics --- Economywide Country Studies: Asia including Middle East --- Environment --- Environmental Conservation and Protection --- Environmental Economics --- Environmental Economics: General --- Environmental Economics: Government Policy --- Environmental policy & protocols --- Environmental Policy --- Environmental policy --- Global Warming --- Green finance / sustainable finance --- Greenhouse gas emissions --- Greenhouse gases --- International agencies --- International Agreements and Observance --- International Economics --- International institutions --- International organization --- International Organizations --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Political Economy --- Political economy --- Public Policy --- Renewable Resources and Conservation: Government Policy
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