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The Belt and Road Initiative seeks to deepen China's international integration by improving infrastructure and strengthening trade and investment linkages with countries along the old Silk Road, thereby linking it to Europe. This paper uses detailed bilateral trade data for 1995-2015 to assess the degree of exposure of Belt and Road economies to China trade shocks. The econometric results reveal that China's trade growth significantly affected the exports of Belt and Road economies. Between 1995 and 2015, the magnitude of China's demand shocks was larger than that of its competition shocks. However, competition shocks became more important in recent years, and were highly heterogeneous across countries and industries. Building on these findings, the paper documents the current degree of exposure of Belt and Road economies to China trade shocks, and discusses policy options to deal with trade-induced adjustment costs.
Economic Growth --- Exports --- Infrastructure --- International Economics and Trade --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Trade Adjustment Costs --- Trade Shocks
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This paper examines how the dismantling of coercive institutions associated with the end of apartheid in South Africa in 1994 affected the istribution of rents from natural resource exports. It identifies the interplay between coercive institutions and natural resource rents as an important driver of local evelopment. Using data from the 1996 census, the paper ocuments large income gaps between communities located just-inside and just-outside the former self-governing territories set aside for black inhabitants. Examining relative changes between 1996 and 2011, the paper finds that spatial income convergence was considerably stronger among marginalized communities with higher initial exposure to resource rents. These results accord with standard bargaining theory in which the dismantling of coercive institutions improves the negotiating position of unionized workers in the mining industry.
Coercion. --- Communities and Human Settlements. --- Economic Theory and Research. --- Emerging Markets. --- Historical Development. --- Housing and Human Habitats. --- Investment and Investment Climate. --- Labor Policies. --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth. --- Natural Resources Trade. --- Private Sector Development. --- Social Protections and Labor. --- Wage Bargaining.
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This paper uses municipal-level data from South Africa for the period 1996-2011 to estimate the medium to long-run effects of trade liberalization on local labor markets. It finds that local labor markets that were more exposed to tariff cuts tended to experience slower growth in employment and income per capita than less exposed regions. The longer-term effects of trade liberalization on regional earnings are stronger than the medium-term effects, and tend to be more pronounced among municipalities that included the former homelands.
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Fixed costs associated with learning about demand and setting up distribution networks are expected to be lower when there are more potential contacts in the destination market, suggesting a greater probability of market entry and larger export revenues. The authors match historically-determined emigration stocks with detailed firm-level data from Portugal to examine the effect of migrant networks on these export outcomes. They find that larger stocks of emigrants in a given destination increase export participation and intensity. In addition, they show that the former of these effects tends to be more pronounced among firms that are more likely to have close ties with the emigrants. These results are consistent with a multiple-destination version of the Melitz (2003) model featuring market-specific entry costs and idiosyncratic firm-destination demand shocks.
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This paper examines whether an expansion in the supply of public preschool crowds out private enrollment. The paper uses rich data for municipalities in Brazil from 2000 to 2006, where federal transfers to local governments change discontinuously with given population thresholds. The results from a regression-discontinuity design reveal that larger federal transfers lead to a significant expansion of local public preschool services, but show no evidence of crowding out of private enrollment. This finding is consistent with a theory in which households differ in their willingness to pay for preschool services, and private suppliers optimally adjust prices in response to an expansion of lower-quality, free-of-charge public supply.
Crowding-Out. --- Economic Theory and Research. --- Labor Policies. --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth. --- Markets and Market Access. --- Municipal Financial Management. --- Preschool Education. --- Private and Public Provision. --- Public Sector Development. --- Public Sector Management and Reform. --- Social Protections and Labor. --- Urban Development.
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This paper examines whether an expansion in the supply of public preschool crowds out private enrollment. The paper uses rich data for municipalities in Brazil from 2000 to 2006, where federal transfers to local governments change discontinuously with given population thresholds. The results from a regression-discontinuity design reveal that larger federal transfers lead to a significant expansion of local public preschool services, but show no evidence of crowding out of private enrollment. This finding is consistent with a theory in which households differ in their willingness to pay for preschool services, and private suppliers optimally adjust prices in response to an expansion of lower-quality, free-of-charge public supply.
Crowding-Out. --- Economic Theory and Research. --- Labor Policies. --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth. --- Markets and Market Access. --- Municipal Financial Management. --- Preschool Education. --- Private and Public Provision. --- Public Sector Development. --- Public Sector Management and Reform. --- Social Protections and Labor. --- Urban Development.
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This paper examines the extent to which the destination of exports matters for the input prices paid by firms, using detailed customs and firm-product-level data from Portugal. We use exchange-rate movements as a source of variation in export destinations and find that exporting to richer countries leads firms to charge more for outputs and pay higher prices for inputs, other things equal. The results are supportive of the hypothesis that an exogenous increase in average destination income leads firms to raise the average quality of goods they produce and to purchase higher-quality inputs.
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Evidence on the impacts of a large-scale expansion in pre-primary education is limited and mostly circumscribed to high- and middle-income nations. This study estimates the effects of such an expansion on progression in primary school in rural communities in Guatemala, where the number of pre-primary schools increased from about 5,300 to 11,500 between 1998 and 2005. Combining administrative and population census data in a difference-in-differences framework, the analysis finds that access to pre-primary education increased by 2.4 percentage points the proportion of students that progress adequately and attend sixth grade by age 12. These positive although limited effects suggest the need for complementary actions to produce substantial improvements in adequate progression.
Disability. --- Early Childhood Development. --- Education for All. --- Education. --- Health, Nutrition and Population. --- Population Policies. --- Pre-Primary Education. --- Primary Education. --- Rural Areas. --- Social Cohesion. --- Social Development. --- Social Protections and Labor.
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This paper examines whether export participation matters for job training. The paper draws on longitudinal worker-firm data for Brazilian manufacturing, linked with detailed records on training activity from the main provider. The analysis uses industry-specific exchange rate movements to generate exogenous variation in export status at the firm-level. The findings indicate that export participation tends to increase the share of workers who receive technical upgrading. The results also reveal that technical upgrading has positive returns to trainees within exporting firms. These findings support the hypothesis that exporting requires skill upgrading, and suggest that this is partially achieved by training firms' existing workforce.
Education --- Education for All --- Export Participation --- Job Training --- Labor Markets --- Labor Standards --- Linked Employer-Employee Data --- Primary Education --- Skill Upgrading --- Social Protections and Labor --- Tertiary Education --- Wages
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