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Capacity development is one of the IMF’s core activities. Its impact is monitored through a Results-Based Management framework. Using for the first time the resulting dataset, the paper investigates how the likelihood of achieving targeted outcomes correlates with macroeconomic conditions and project-specific characteristics. Results indicate a positive correlation with per capita GDP growth and the involvement of resident advisors and regional centers. Results also confirm lower chances of achieving targeted outcomes for fragile, conflict-affected, and small states as well as in complex projects. These findings inform Fund CD strategy, prioritization and delivery to help member countries achieve better outcomes.

Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Econometrics --- Banks and Banking --- Taxation --- Public Finance --- Economic Development: General --- Project Analysis --- Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models --- Discrete Regressors --- Proportions --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Public finance & taxation --- Banking --- Probit models --- Econometric analysis --- Central bank operations --- Central banks --- Tax administration core functions --- Revenue administration --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Econometric models --- Tax administration and procedure --- Revenue

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Zonder onderwerpscode: financiewezen

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The empirical literature on sovereign debt crises identifies the level of public debt (measured as a share of GDP) as a key variable to predict debt defaults and to determine sovereign market access. This evidence has led to the widespread use of (country-specific) debt thresholds to assess debt sustainability. We argue that the level of the debt-to-GDP ratio, whose use is justified on a theoretical and empirical ground, should not be the only fiscal metric to assess the complex relationship between public debt and debt defaults/market access. In particular, we show that, in a large panel of emerging markets, the dynamics of the debt ratio plays a critical role for market access. In particular, given a certain level of debt, a steadily declining debt ratio is associated with a lower probability of debt distress/market loss and with a higher likelihood of market re-access once access had been lost.

Debts, Public. --- Gross domestic product. --- Foreign exchange market. --- Exchange market --- Foreign exchange markets --- FX market --- Markets --- Domestic product, Gross --- GDP --- Gross national product --- Debts, Government --- Government debts --- National debts --- Public debt --- Public debts --- Sovereign debt --- Debt --- Bonds --- Deficit financing --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- International Financial Markets --- National Deficit Surplus --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Fiscal Policy --- International economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Debt sustainability --- Debt sustainability analysis --- Fiscal stance --- Debt default --- External debt --- Fiscal policy --- Debts, External --- Debts, Public --- United States

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