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Inflation targeting (IT) has gained much traction over the past two decades, becoming a framework of reference for the conduct of monetary policy. However, the debate about its very merits and macroeconomic consequences remains inconclusive. This paper digs deeper into the issue through a meta-regression analysis (MRA) of the existing literature, making it the first application of a MRA to the macroeconomic effects of IT adoption. Building on 8,059 estimated coefficients from a very broad sample of 113 studies, the paper finds that the empirical literature suffers from two types of publication bias. First, authors, editors and reviewers prefer results featuring beneficial effects of IT adoption on inflation volatility, real GDP growth and fiscal performances; second, they promote results with estimated coefficients that are significantly different from zero. However, after filtering out the publication biases, we still find meaningful (genuine) effects of IT in reducing inflation and real GDP growth volatility, but no significant genuine effects on inflation volatility and the level of real GDP growth. Interestingly, the results indicate that the impact of IT varies systematically across studies, depending on the sample structure and composition, the time coverage, the estimation techniques, country-specific factors, IT implementation parameters, and publication characteristics.

Banks and Banking --- Econometrics --- Finance: General --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Monetary Policy --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Survey Methods --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Estimation --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Banking --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Finance --- Price stabilization --- Central bank autonomy --- Estimation techniques --- Financial sector development --- Prices --- Central banks --- Econometric analysis --- Financial markets --- Government policy --- Econometric models --- Financial services industry --- United States

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This paper assesses Morocco’s potential output and the scope for structural reforms to reverse the downward trend in economic performance observed since the Global Financial Crisis. Using multivariate filtering (MVF) techniques, our analysis finds that the downward secular trend in potential growth was primarily driven by the decline in the contribution of labor inputs. We then combine production function and general equilibrium model approaches to provide estimates of the potential macroeconomic impact of Morocco’s structural reform agenda. The results suggest that the planned structural reforms could deliver sizable output gains in the medium to long term with reforms that would reduce the large gender gap in Morocco’s labor market yielding the greatest payoffs.

Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Aggregate Productivity --- Capacity --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Capital --- Cost --- Cross-Country Output Convergence --- Currency crises --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economic theory --- Economics of specific sectors --- Economics --- Economics: General --- Employment --- Fiscal Policy --- Forecasting and Other Model Applications --- Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications --- Income economics --- Industrial productivity --- Informal sector --- Institutions and Growth --- Institutions and the Macroeconomy --- Intangible Capital --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Investment --- Labor force participation --- Labor market --- Labor Standards: Labor Force Composition --- Labor --- Labour --- Macroeconomics --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Macrostructural analysis --- Measurement of Economic Growth --- Potential output --- Production and Operations Management --- Production growth --- Production --- Structural reforms --- Total factor productivity --- Unemployment --- Wages

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Since the 1960s, several initiatives have been undertaken to enhance trade integration in Africa. However, substantial tariff and nontariff barriers remain in place. In recent years, African leaders have shown a renewed push for regional integration by signing the agreement on the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). The AfCFTA has the potential to transform regional trade and thereby lift growth and support livelihoods across the continent. This paper lays out the benefits that successful AfCFTA implementation could unlock for Africa in terms of income, jobs, and other benefits. It is based on an empirical analysis of the obstacles to trade in goods and services and regional value chain integration along with a discussion of how regional trade integration and supporting policies could help African countries cope with ongoing global and domestic trends. The empirical analysis investigates the role of trade policy and the broader trade-enabling environment in determining the bilateral goods trade flows and country-level trade in services. It sheds light on how the implementation of AfCFTA and supporting policies could boost trade and income as well as help African countries integrate into regional value chains. The findings suggest that plausible reductions in tariffs and nontariff barriers under AfCFTA, along with improvements in broader trade-enabling environment (trade infrastructure, financial development, and domestic security), would substantially boost intra-African trade in goods and services, and support integration into regional value chains. Further, regional trade integration could be an important element of a strategy for African countries to cope with rapid population growth, climate change, and emerging geopolitical fragmentation.

Public Policy --- International Economics --- Exports and Imports --- Taxation --- Political Economy --- International Agreements and Observance --- International Organizations --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Economic Integration --- Trade: General --- Financial Aspects of Economic Integration --- Retail and Wholesale Trade --- e-Commerce --- Political economy --- International institutions --- International economics --- Public finance & taxation --- International organization --- Exports --- International trade --- Trade integration --- Economic integration --- Tariffs --- Taxes --- Trade in goods --- Trade agreements --- Economics --- International agencies --- International economic integration --- Tariff --- Balance of trade --- Commercial treaties

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North African economies are characterized by a significant share of informal activity and employment. About two-thirds of workers in North Africa operate without any formal arrangement and social protection, and about 30 percent of GDP is estimated to be produced by informal workers and firms. This paper finds that while a few key structural characteristics could explain “normal” informality in North Africa, policy distortions explain a large share of excess informality. Among the structural factors that can lead to high informality, the relatively lower level of human capital and younger population help explain the high informality in the region, as low-skilled and young people generally find it more difficult to operate in the formal sector. At the same time, gaps in a set of policy indicators also explain the relatively high informality in North Africa. In particular, this paper finds that gaps in the quality of governance explain about half of the excess informality experienced in North Africa compared with advanced economies. In this context, the expansion of the informal sector in Algeria and Tunisia from the mid-2000s partially reflects the deterioration in a few indicators of their governance and regulatory frameworks. In contrast, the decline in informality observed in Egypt, Mauritania, and Morocco over this period also reflects improved business regulations, governance, and tax systems, in addition to continued progress in economic development. While informality has traditionally buffered regional labor markets against the impact of recessions, the COVID-19 crisis has been different. North African economies have generally exhibited relatively stable unemployment rates, including during recessions, largely owing to their high levels of informality. However, informal employment has fallen significantly in North Africa during the pandemic, as lockdown measures have particularly affected high-informality service sectors. As the pandemic subsides and the lockdown measures are removed, the recovery of regional labor markets could exhibit a stronger-than-usual rebound of informal employment. Ensuring an inclusive recovery from the pandemic would call for renewed efforts to construct more modern (digitalized), more efficient, and fairer systems of social protection, building on the progress achieved in the region during the pandemic in extending safety nets to informal workers.

Business cycles. --- Africa, North --- Economic conditions. --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Business cycles --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Development economics & emerging economies --- Economic development --- Economic growth --- Economic integration --- Economic theory --- Economics --- Emerging and frontier financial markets --- Employment --- Finance --- Finance: General --- Financial markets --- Financial services industry --- Formal and Informal Sectors --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Income economics --- Informal Economy --- Informal employment --- Informal sector --- Institutional Arrangements --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Labor Demand --- Labor market --- Labor markets --- Labor --- Labour --- Macroeconomics --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Self-employed --- Self-employment --- Shadow Economy --- Underground Econom --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Morocco