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This paper studies how financial stress is transmitted from advanced to emerging economies, using a new financial stress index for emerging economies. An episode of financial stress is defined as a period when the financial system's ability to intermediate may be impaired. Previous financial crises in advanced economies passed through strongly and rapidly to emerging economies. In line with this pattern, the unprecedented spike in financial stress in advanced economies elevated financial stress across emerging economies above levels seen during the Asian crisis, but with significant cross-country variation. The extent of pass-through of financial stress is related to the depth of financial linkages between advanced and emerging economies. The paper finds that higher current account and fiscal balances do little to insulate emerging economies from the transmission of financial stress in advanced economies. However, they may help dampen the impact on the real sector of emerging economies and help reestablish financial stability and foreign capital inflows once financial stress subsides.
Finance --- Business & Economics --- International Finance --- International finance. --- Financial crises. --- Crashes, Financial --- Crises, Financial --- Financial crashes --- Financial panics --- Panics (Finance) --- Stock exchange crashes --- Stock market panics --- International monetary system --- International money --- Crises --- International economic relations --- Banks and Banking --- Finance: General --- Financial Risk Management --- Macroeconomics --- Financial Crises --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Banking --- Financial crises --- Stock markets --- Systemic crises --- Banking crises --- Banks and banking --- Stock exchanges --- United States
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To understand better Canada's smooth reallocation of labor in response to the recent commodity price boom, but seemingly poor productivity performance, this paper examines job and firm dynamics in Canada relative to the United States. Overall, it finds that while Canada's labor market efficiency seems comparable to that of the United States, product market rigidities appear to be reducing Canada's capacity for creative destruction, hence undermining productivity growth.
Job creation --- Business enterprises --- Creating jobs --- Employment creation --- Full employment policies --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Labor Demand --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Labor Economics: General --- Labour --- income economics --- Job destruction --- Labor markets --- Labor market --- Economic theory --- Labor economics --- United States
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This paper aims to improve the understanding of U.S. inflation dynamics by separating out structural from cyclical effects using frequency domain techniques. Most empirical studies of inflation dynamics do not distinguish between secular and cyclical movements, and we show that such a distinction is critical. In particular, we study traditional Phillips curve (TPC) and new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) models of inflation, and conclude that the long-run secular decline in inflation cannot be explained in terms of changes in external trade and global factor markets. These variables tend to impact inflation primarily over the business cycle. We infer that the secular decline in inflation may well reflect improved monetary policy credibility and, thus, maintaining low inflation in the long run is closely linked to anchored inflation expectations.
Electronic books. -- local. --- Finance -- United States. --- Inflation (Finance) -- United States. --- Finance --- Business & Economics --- Money --- Inflation (Finance) --- Exports and Imports --- Finance: General --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Economic growth --- International economics --- Output gap --- Business cycles --- Terms of trade --- Competition --- Prices --- Production --- Economic theory --- Economic policy --- nternational cooperation --- United States
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This paper sheds light on the attractiveness of U.S. assets by studying dollar risk premiums, calculated using Consensus exchange rate forecasts, and linking them to bilateral capital flows. The paper finds that the presence of negative dollar risk premiums (i.e. expectations of a dollar depreciation net of interest rate effects) amid record capital inflows could suggest that investors may favor U.S. assets for structural reasons. One possible explanation could be that the Asian crisis created a large pool of savings searching for relatively riskless investment opportunities, which were provided by deep, liquid, and innovative U.S. financial markets with robust investor protection. Moreover, the continued attractiveness of U.S. financial markets to European investors suggests that they offer a large array of assets, with different risk/return characteristics, that facilitate the structuring of diversified investment portfolios. Looking forward, this suggests that the allocative efficiency of U.S. financial markets could mitigate risks of a disorderly unwinding of global current account imbalances.
Capital movements. --- Dollar, American. --- Electronic books. -- local. --- Finance --- Business & Economics --- Money --- Capital flight --- Capital flows --- Capital inflow --- Capital outflow --- Flight of capital --- Flow of capital --- Movements of capital --- American dollar --- Balance of payments --- Foreign exchange --- International finance --- Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Investments: General --- Investments: Bonds --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Macroeconomics --- Investment & securities --- International economics --- Currency --- Return on investment --- Treasury bills and bonds --- Corporate bonds --- Exchange rates --- Saving and investment --- Government securities --- Capital movements --- Bonds --- United States
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This paper examines the roles of U.S. financial innovation, financial globalization, and the savings glut hypothesis in explaining the rise in U.S. external debt, first in a portfolio balance model, and then empirically. Perhaps surprisingly, financial deepening and falling home bias in industrialized countries explain a large share of external financing. The savings glut hypothesis (including difficult-to-track petrodollar recycling) and U.S. financial innovation are also important, in part as a cause of declining home bias in industrialized countries. The latter underscores the importance of not looking at these factors in isolation, but rather as a constellation of forces that can be self-reinforcing.
Exports and Imports --- Finance: General --- Investments: Bonds --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Finance --- Investment & securities --- International economics --- Securities markets --- Bonds --- Emerging and frontier financial markets --- Sovereign bonds --- Foreign assets --- Capital market --- Financial services industry --- Investments, Foreign --- United States
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This paper assesses how pro-poor and inclusive Asia’s recent growth has been, and what factors have been driving these outcomes. It finds that while poverty has fallen across the region over the last two decades, inequality has increased, dampening the impact of growth on poverty reduction. As a result, relative to other emerging and developing regions and to Asia’s own past, the recent period of growth has been both less inclusive and less pro-poor. Our analysis suggests a number of policies that could help redress these trends and broaden the benefits of growth in Asia. These include fiscal policies to increase spending on health, education, and social safetynets; labor market reforms to boost the labor share of total income; and reforms to make financial systems more inclusive.
Poverty --- Asia --- Economic conditions. --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Social Services and Welfare --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development --- Economic Development: Human Resources --- Human Development --- Income Distribution --- Migration --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: Public Policy --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General --- Government Policy --- Provision and Effects of Welfare Program --- Labour --- income economics --- Economic growth --- Social welfare & social services --- Personal income --- Income inequality --- Minimum wages --- Inclusive growth --- Income distribution --- Income --- National accounts --- Poverty reduction --- Minimum wage --- Economic development --- China, People's Republic of
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Consumption (Economics) --- Inflation (Finance) --- Statistical methods. --- Econometric models. --- Finance --- Natural rate of unemployment
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Interest rates --- Foreign exchange rates --- Petroleum products --- Econometric models. --- Prices --- Exchange rates --- Fixed exchange rates --- Flexible exchange rates --- Floating exchange rates --- Fluctuating exchange rates --- Foreign exchange --- Rates of exchange --- Money market rates --- Rate of interest --- Rates, Interest --- Interest --- Rates
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This paper investigates the medium-term behavior of output following banking crises, and its association with pre- and post-crisis conditions and policies. We find that output tends to be depressed substantially following banking crises, with no rebound to the precrisis trend. However, growth does eventually tend to return to its precrisis rate, with substantial crosscountry variation in outcomes. The depressed path of output typically results from reductions of roughly equal proportions in the employment rate, the capital-to-labor ratio, and total factor productivity. Initial conditions that are strongly associated with medium-run output losses include the short-run change in output, the occurrence of a joint banking-and-currency crisis, and a high precrisis level of investment. Short-run fiscal and monetary stimulus is associated with smaller medium-run deviations of output and growth from the precrisis trend.
Banks and Banking --- Financial Risk Management --- Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- Financial Crises --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Capacity --- Foreign Exchange --- Institutions and the Macroeconomy --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Banking crises --- Total factor productivity --- Financial crises --- Currency crises --- Structural reforms --- Industrial productivity --- United States
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While the level of disparities across regions in 10 advanced European economies studied in this paper mostly reflects productivity gaps, the increase since the Great Recession has resulted from diverging unemployment rates. Following the pandemic, this could be further exacerbated given teleworkability rates are lower in poorer regions than in high-income regions, making them ex-ante more vulnerable to the pandemic’s likely material impact on the prevalence of remote work. Preliminary evidence from 2020 confirms that regional disparities between countries increased during 2020. A further concern is that the pandemic might accelerate the automation of jobs across Europe, something which often happens following recessions. While lagging regions have lower ex-ante vulnerabilities against the routinization, the transformation of jobs through sectors with higher routinization rates in these regions could increase their vulnerability to technological change over time. The green transition could also lead to challenges for regions that have benefitted from carbon-intensive growth strategies. Finally, the paper discusses the role for policies—including placed-based ones—in reducing disparities in the face of the aforementioned short, medium, and long-term risks.
Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Environmental Conservation and Protection --- Diseases: Contagious --- Labor --- Environmental Policy --- Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Human Capital --- Skills --- Occupational Choice --- Labor Productivity --- Environment and Growth --- Climate --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Global Warming --- Health Behavior --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Environmental Economics: Government Policy --- Financial Crises --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Climate change --- Infectious & contagious diseases --- Labour --- income economics --- Environmental policy & protocols --- Greenhouse gas emissions --- Environment --- COVID-19 --- Health --- Climate policy --- Global financial crisis of 2008-2009 --- Financial crises --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Greenhouse gases --- Communicable diseases --- Economic theory --- Environmental policy --- Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 --- United Kingdom
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