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The financial viability of the power sector is a prerequisite for attracting the investment needed to ensure reliable energy supply, meet universal access targets, and hasten the clean energy transition. Adequate pricing of electricity to allow for cost recovery is also important to minimize the power sector's negative macroeconomic, fiscal, environmental, and social impacts. This paper takes stock of the empirical and conceptual literature on the financial viability and cost recovery of the power sector in developing countries. Time-series data across countries are relatively scarce, but comparing the findings from 21 studies suggests that under-recovery of costs remains pervasive despite decades of efforts by governments and development institutions. Large electricity subsidies continue to burden governments, especially in the Middle East, South Asia, Central Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa. Reviews by the World Bank and International Monetary Fund on outcomes of their own engagement also conclude that progress on cost recovery in supported countries has been limited. Although the aggregated view obscures fluctuation within individual countries over time, the available evidence suggests that countries progressing toward cost recovery may find themselves backsliding within a few years. As for understanding the circumstances under which progress can be made, a handful of studies point toward a correlation between sector reforms and cost recovery, although few of the studies address obvious endogeneity problems. To provide more solid guidance for future efforts to improve cost recovery, more research is needed on: (i) the determinants and enabling conditions of progress on cost recovery; (ii) tariff reform sequencing; and (iii) institutional arrangements, policies, and regulations that enable countries to sustain cost recovery once it is reached.

Cost effectiveness. --- Electricity --- Energy industries --- Prices.

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The level of performance of an electric utility is determined by the soundness of its financial situation, the efficiency of its technology, and the quality of service it provides customers. Its financial underpinning is a balance of costs and revenue (from customer payments, government, and other sources). But revenue is not as straightforward as it might seem. The concept of foregone cash addresses the 'cash on the table' that pays for operations and servicing debt (revenue collected divided by the cost of operations and debt). The problem is the table may not have all the cash that ought to be there, such as money owed because of nonpayment's by customers and money lost through inefficiencies in power generation or delivery. Consequently, there is a latent revenue that, if fixed, can provide vital improvements to a utility's financial performance. This note analyzes the elements involved in understanding foregone cash in the context of cost recovery.

Cost Recovery --- Electric Power --- Energy --- Energy Policies and Economics --- Energy Sector Regulation --- Power Sector Reform --- Utilities

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More than a decade of ambitious sector reform has led to a period of stability in the Armenian energy sector. The sector faces challenges more typical of a developed economy than an emerging one: policymakers' concerns have shifted from avoiding total system collapse to optimizing the energy supply mix to provide affordable, reliable, and sustainable energy services. However, some old challenges remain and new ones have arisen. Armenia is still vulnerable to energy supply disruptions; tariffs lag the full cost of service provision; and a significant investment backlog impedes progress in energy infrastructure. The purpose of this note is to present the analysis of the challenges facing Armenia's energy sector, specifically, its electricity, natural gas, and heating subsectors. The intention of the note is not to prescribe solutions, but to present analysis of options and tradeoffs that the Government can use to inform its decision-making. Armenia's energy sector has undergone a series of reforms over the last fifteen years, which included privatization of the electricity distribution and gas companies, and some generating companies, establishment of an independent regulator, and development of a formal strategic plan for the sector. This energy sector overview highlights important outcomes from reforms and describes key sector characteristics.

Bankruptcy --- Capital Costs --- Consumers --- Debt --- Elasticity of Demand --- Electricity --- Energy --- Energy and Environment --- Energy Consumption --- Energy Demand --- Energy Efficiency --- Energy Markets --- Energy Production and Transportation --- Energy Sector --- Energy Security --- Energy Supply --- Financial Crisis --- Fuel Prices --- Fuels --- Gdp --- Gross Domestic Product --- Hydropower

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This paper develops a classification of investor risks and surveys 51 private investors and financiers in the power sector in Sub-Saharan Africa. The paper aims for a better understanding of what can be done to attract private solutions to fill the investment gap. It finds that the average investor assigns more weight to power sector policy and regulatory framework risks than to the wider sector and country context risks. And, despite many challenges, investors perceive three segments as ready for private solutions in Sub-Saharan Africa: power generation, off-grid electrification, and mini-grids. Investors see lower readiness in distribution, transmission, and retail. The paper finds that the average investor is forward-looking, as neither the track record of the power sector nor the firm's personal track record is as important as the growth potential in the market. The paper uses the findings to reality-check data-based measures of regulatory readiness, namely the Regulatory Indicators for Sustainable Energy and Power Sector Reform Index and analyzes which elements correlate best with investor sentiment to optimize and streamline these indexes accordingly. The results provide important lessons for governments and development partners to devise appropriate de-risking instruments tailored to the risks that matter most to investors.

Electric Power --- Electricity --- Emerging Market Economies --- Energy --- Energy Markets --- Energy Policies and Economics --- Energy Sector Regulation --- Financial Viability --- Investment Risk --- Mini-Grids --- Off-Grid Electrification --- Power Sector --- Power Sector Reform --- Private Investment --- Public-Private Partnerships --- Renewable Energy --- Sustainable Energy