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Do trade shocks affect workers differently because of their age? This paper examines the issue by estimating the lifetime mobility of workers based on the sectors in which they work. Using U.S. data, the paper shows that mobility costs rise with a worker's age and years of experience, but stay the same regardless of his or her education level. In addition, using a general-equilibrium simulation of counterfactual trade-liberalization policies in the metal manufacturing sector, the paper shows that trade shocks affect workers with higher mobility costs more, for both winners and losers of the policy shocks. But the effects taper off over a worker's lifetime, especially when they are close to retirement.

Economic Theory & Research --- International Economics & Trade --- Labor Market Equilibrium --- Labor Markets --- Labor Policies --- Sectoral Mobility --- Tertiary Education --- Trade Liberalization --- Trade Policy

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This paper introduces a computationally efficient method for estimating structural parameters of dynamic discrete choice models with large choice sets. The method is based on Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood (PPML) regression, which is widely used in the international trade and migration literature to estimate the gravity equation. Unlike most of the existing methods in the literature, it does not require strong parametric assumptions on agents' expectations, thus it can accommodate macroeconomic and policy shocks. The regression requires count data as opposed to choice probabilities; therefore it can handle sparse decision transition matrices caused by small sample sizes. As an example application, the paper estimates sectoral worker mobility in the United States.

Discrete Choice Models --- Gravity Equation --- International Economics & Trade --- Labor Mobility --- Migration --- Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood

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The paths of many migrants include multiple destinations and transit routes, yet this pattern is almost never reflected in empirical analyses. For example, 9 percent of recent immigrants to the United States arrived from a transit country as opposed to the country where they were born. Among those arriving from many high-income countries, the transit migration ratio exceeds 30 percent. To explain these patterns, this paper constructs a dynamic model of global migration that allows transit migration opportunities to impact the attractiveness of locations. After estimating the structural parameters of the model, the paper simulates various counterfactual scenarios to highlight the spillovers of transit migration paths.

International Migration --- Migration Policy --- Transit Migration

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This volume examines the relationship between trade liberalization policies and income inequality in developing countries. Using survey data for 54 developing countries, the book explores the potential trade-off between the gains from trade and the distribution of those gains and provides a quantification of the inequality-adjusted welfare gains from trade. The book begins with an introduction to the model and its methodology. Chapter 2 sets up the model and derives the formulas for the welfare effects of trade policy. Chapter 3 uses the tariff data and the survey data to estimate those welfare effects in 54 countries. Chapter 4 discusses the gains from trade and their distribution. Chapter 5 evaluates and quantifies the trade-off between income gains and inequality costs of trade. Chapter 6 presents robustness tests and results from alternative models of the impacts of trade. The last chapter reviews the Household Impacts of Trade database and dashboard, which provides data for replication and a platform that allows researchers to simulate agricultural tariff policy shocks. Providing a comprehensive empirical analysis of the effects of trade policy on inequality in developing countries, this volume will be of interest to researchers and students of economic inequality, development, and international trade as well as policymakers interested in the inequality and poverty consequences of trade policy.

Political philosophy. Social philosophy --- International relations. Foreign policy --- Economic conditions. Economic development --- Foreign trade. International trade --- Developing countries: economic development problems --- ontwikkelingssamenwerking --- wereldeconomie --- internationale economie --- globalisering