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In light of the current economic crisis, we estimate hazard models of divorce to determine how state and national unemployment rates affect the likelihood of divorce. With 89,340 observations over the 1978-2006 period for 7633 couples from the 1979 NLSY, we find mixed evidence on whether increases in the unemployment rate lead to overall increases in the likelihood of divorce, which would suggest countercyclical divorce probabilities. However, further analysis reveals that the weak evidence is due to the weak economy increasing the risk of divorce only for couples in years 6 to 10 of marriage. For couples in years 1 to 5 and couples married longer than 10 years, there is no evidence of a pattern between the strength of the economy and divorce probabilities. The estimates are generally stronger in magnitude when using national instead of state unemployment rates.

Zonder onderwerpscode: economie

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One of the tools the Air Force is using to improve its logistical support to the warfighter is purchasing and supply-chain management (PSCM). But other factors likely were changing at about the same time, which might influence the relationship of the PSCM initiative to the supply chain's ability to support the warfighter. To evaluate whether PSCM is doing what it is intended to do, and how well, it is necessary to control for these other factors that may be influencing its outcomes. The authors have taken a step in that direction by developing an econometric model that isolates certain identifiable factors and holds them constant as a means of separating their effects from PSCM. They illustrate their model by analyzing the relationship between PSCM and Mission Capable (MICAP) incidents. The authors considered several different factors but found data availability and quality to be a challenge. However, the model may be useful both with other factors and for estimating the benefits of other initiatives.

Inventory control. --- Business logistics. --- United States.

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In light of the current economic crisis, we estimate hazard models of divorce to determine how state and national unemployment rates affect the likelihood of divorce. With 89,340 observations over the 1978-2006 period for 7633 couples from the 1979 NLSY, we find mixed evidence on whether increases in the unemployment rate lead to overall increases in the likelihood of divorce, which would suggest countercyclical divorce probabilities. However, further analysis reveals that the weak evidence is due to the weak economy increasing the risk of divorce only for couples in years 6 to 10 of marriage. For couples in years 1 to 5 and couples married longer than 10 years, there is no evidence of a pattern between the strength of the economy and divorce probabilities. The estimates are generally stronger in magnitude when using national instead of state unemployment rates.