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Book
From Great Depression to Great Credit Crisis: Similarities, Differences and Lessons
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Year: 2009 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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Venting Out : Exports During a Domestic Slump
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Year: 2018 Publisher: National Bureau of Economic Research

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Strategic or Confused Firms? Evidence from "Missing" Transactions in Uganda
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Year: 2021 Publisher: National Bureau of Economic Research

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VAT Notches, Voluntary Registration, and Bunching : Theory and UK Evidence.
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ISBN: 9781513515786 Year: 2019 Publisher: Washington, D. C. International Monetary Fund

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VAT Notches, Voluntary Registration, and Bunching: Theory and UK Evidence.

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E-books


Book
VAT Notches, Voluntary Registration, and Bunching: Theory and UK Evidence
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ISBN: 1513515780 1513513818 1513515772 Year: 2019 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Using administrative tax records for UK businesses, we document both bunching in annual turnover below the VAT registration threshold and persistent voluntary registration by almost half of the firms below the threshold. We develop a conceptual framework that can simultaneously explain these two apparently conflicting facts. The framework also predicts that higher intermediate input shares, lower product-market competition and a lower share of business to consumer (B2C) sales lead to voluntary registration. The predictions are exactly the opposite for bunching. We test the theory using linked VAT and corporation tax records from 2004-2014, finding empirical support for these predictions.


Digital
Venting Out : Exports During a Domestic Slump
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Year: 2018 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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We exploit plausibly exogenous geographical variation in the reduction in domestic demand caused by the Great Recession in Spain to document the existence of a robust, within-firm negative causal relationship between demand-driven changes in domestic sales and export flows. Spanish manufacturing firms whose domestic sales were reduced by more during the crisis observed a larger increase in their export flows, even after controlling for firms' supply determinants (such as labor costs). This negative relationship between demand-driven changes in domestic sales and changes in export flows illustrates the capacity of export markets to counteract the negative impact of local demand shocks. We rationalize our findings through a standard heterogeneous-firm model of exporting expanded to allow for non-constant marginal costs of production. Using a structurally estimated version of this model, we conclude that the firm-level responses to the slump in domestic demand in Spain could well have accounted for around one-half of the spectacular increase in Spanish goods exports (the so-called 'Spanish export miracle') over the period 2009-13.


Digital
From Great Depression to Great Credit Crisis: Similarities, Differences and Lessons
Authors: --- --- --- ---
Year: 2009 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass National Bureau of Economic Research

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The Great Depression of the 1930s and the Great Credit Crisis of the 2000s had similar causes but elicited strikingly different policy responses. It may still be too early to assess the effectiveness of current policy responses, but it is possible to analyze monetary and fiscal policies in the 1930s as a “natural experiment” or “counterfactual” capable of shedding light on the impact of recent policies. We employ vector autoregressions, instrumental variables, and qualitative evidence for a panel of 27 countries in the period 1925-1939. The results suggest that monetary and fiscal stimulus was effective – that where it did not make a difference it was not tried. The results also shed light on the debate over fiscal multipliers in episodes of financial crisis. They are consistent with multipliers at the higher end of those estimated in the recent literature, consistent with the idea that the impact of fiscal stimulus will be greater when banking system are dysfunctional and monetary policy is constrained by the zero bound.


Book
Venting Out : Exports During a Domestic Slump
Authors: --- --- --- ---
Year: 2018 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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Abstract

We exploit plausibly exogenous geographical variation in the reduction in domestic demand caused by the Great Recession in Spain to document the existence of a robust, within-firm negative causal relationship between demand-driven changes in domestic sales and export flows. Spanish manufacturing firms whose domestic sales were reduced by more during the crisis observed a larger increase in their export flows, even after controlling for firms' supply determinants (such as labor costs). This negative relationship between demand-driven changes in domestic sales and changes in export flows illustrates the capacity of export markets to counteract the negative impact of local demand shocks. We rationalize our findings through a standard heterogeneous-firm model of exporting expanded to allow for non-constant marginal costs of production. Using a structurally estimated version of this model, we conclude that the firm-level responses to the slump in domestic demand in Spain could well have accounted for around one-half of the spectacular increase in Spanish goods exports (the so-called 'Spanish export miracle') over the period 2009-13.

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Book
From great depression to great credit crisis: similarities, differences and lessons.
Authors: --- --- --- ---
Year: 2009 Publisher: London Centre For Economic Policy Research

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Book
Strategic or Confused Firms? Evidence from "Missing" Transactions in Uganda
Authors: --- --- --- ---
Year: 2021 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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Are firms sophisticated maximizers, or do they consistently make errors? Using transaction-level data from Ugandan value-added tax (VAT) returns, we show that sellers and buyers report different amounts 79% of the time, despite invoices being easily cross-checked. We estimate that 25% of firms are disadvantageous misreporters--they systematically misreport own sales and purchases such that their tax liability increases--while 75% are advantageous misreporters. Many firms--especially disadvantageous misreporters--fail to report imported inputs they themselves reported at Customs, increasing their VAT liability. On net, unilateral VAT misreporting cost Uganda about US$384 million in foregone 2013-2016 tax revenue

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