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Presents the first theoretical analysis of the Asian financial crisis and draws out the general lessons of an event whose potential long term effects have been likened to those of the Crash of 1929. Part I presents a factual and analytic overview of what happened: the role of 'vulnerability'; the interconnection between currency crises and financial crises; and why crisis turned into collapse. Part II considers more detailed issues, including how the inflation of non-traded goods prices created vulnerability, welfare-reducing capital inflow owing to under-regulated financial markets, and the onset of speculative attacks. Part III assesses all aspects of contagion, in particular the role of geographic proximity. The final section addresses policy issues. Joseph Stiglitz argues that there is much that can be done to reduce the frequency of crises and to mitigate the severity of crises when they happen. The book finishes with a round-table discussion of policy issues.

ASI / Asia - Azië - Asie --- 333.481 --- NBB congres --- Monetaire crisissen, hervormingen, saneringen en stabilisering. --- Conferences - Meetings --- #ECO:02.01:financiële sector algemeen --- #ECO:05.05:landen Azië --- -338.542 --- International finance --- Asia --- 338.12 --- Financial crises --- 338.12 Conjunctuurbewegingen. Economische fluctuatie. Investeringscycli. Conjunctuuranalyse. Conjunctuuronderzoek. Conjunctuurprognoses --- Conjunctuurbewegingen. Economische fluctuatie. Investeringscycli. Conjunctuuranalyse. Conjunctuuronderzoek. Conjunctuurprognoses --- Crashes, Financial --- Crises, Financial --- Financial crashes --- Financial panics --- Panics (Finance) --- Stock exchange crashes --- Stock market panics --- Economic conditions. --- Economic policy. --- 338.542 --- Congresses --- Economic conditions --- Monetaire crisissen, hervormingen, saneringen en stabilisering --- Business, Economy and Management --- Economics

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This book provides a systematic and coherent framework for understanding the interactions between the micro and macro dimensions of economic adjustment policies; that is, it explores short-run macroeconomic management and structural adjustment policies aimed at promoting economic growth.

Economic development.

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This paper analyzes the macroeconomic effects of fiscal and labor market policies in a small open developing country. The basic framework considers an economy with a large informal production sector and a heterogeneous work force. The labor market is segmented as a result of efficiency considerations and minimum wage laws. The basic model is then extended to account for unemployment benefits, income taxation, and imperfect labor mobility across sectors. Under the assumption of perfect labor mobility, we show that a permanent reduction in government spending on nontraded goods leads in the long run to a depreciation of the real exchange rate, a fall in the market-clearing wage for unskilled labor, an increase in output of traded goods, and a lower stock of net foreign assets. A permanent reduction in the minimum wage for unskilled workers improves competitiveness, and expands the formal sector at the expense of the informal sector. Hence, in a two-sector economy in which the minimum wage is enforced only in the formal sector and wages in one segment of the labor market are competitively determined, efficiency wage considerations do not alter the standard neoclassical presumption. A reduction in unemployment benefits is also shown to have a positive effect on output of tradable goods by lowering both the level of efficiency wages and the employment rent of skilled workers.

Production functions (Economic theory) --- Consumption (Economics) --- Econometric models.

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November 2000 - A two-step approach is used to assess the extent to which the credit crunch in East Asia was supply- or demand-driven. The results for Thailand suggest that the contraction in bank lending that accompanied the crisis was the result of supply factors. Agénor, Aizenman, and Hoffmaister propose a two-step approach for assessing the extent to which the fall in credit in crisis-stricken East Asian countries was a supply- or demand-induced phenomenon. The first step involves estimating a demand function for excess liquid assets held by commercial banks. The second step involves establishing dynamic projections for the periods after the crisis and assessing whether or not residuals are large enough to be viewed as indicators of an "involuntary" accumulation of excess reserves. The results for Thailand suggest that the contraction in bank lending that accompanied the crisis was the result of supply factors. Thai firms (presumably small and medium-size ones) faced binding constraints in getting access to credit markets after the crisis. This paper-a product of the Economic Policy and Poverty Reduction Division, World Bank Institute-is part of a larger effort in the institute to understand the macroeconomic effects of credit market imperfections. Pierre-Richard Agénor may be contacted at pagenor@worldbank.org.

Bank liquidity. --- Bank liquidity --- Bank loans. --- Bank reserves.

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This paper reviews recent developments in the theoretical and empirical analysis of balance-of-payments crises. A simple analytical model highlighting the process leading to such crises is first developed. The basic framework is then extended to deal with a variety of issues, such as: alternative post-collapse regimes, uncertainty, real sector effects, external borrowing and capital controls, imperfect asset substitutability, sticky prices, and endogenous policy switches. Empirical evidence on the collapse of exchange rate regimes is also examined, and the major implications of the analysis for macroeconomic policy are discussed.

Balance of payments --- Foreign exchange rates --- Macroeconomics. --- Econometric models.