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We estimate the subnational employment and GDP multiplier of Brazil's 2020 federal cash transfers to vulnerable households. Using two-stage least squares regressions we estimate a formal employment multiplier and then apply an analytical transformation to recover an implied GDP multiplier in the range of 0.5-1.5. The lower bound of this range lies below most estimates in the literature, which may result from the exceptional constraints imposed by the pandemic on supply chains and consumption. Nevertheless, even using the lower end of our range implies that federal cash transfers played an important role in supporting employment and GDP.
Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Labor --- Diseases: Contagious --- Demography --- Public Finance --- Fiscal Policy --- National Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs --- Finance in Urban and Rural Economies --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Health Behavior --- Demographic Economics: General --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Labour --- income economics --- Infectious & contagious diseases --- Population & demography --- Public finance & taxation --- Informal employment --- Public employment --- COVID-19 --- Health --- Population and demographics --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Economic theory --- Communicable diseases --- Population --- Expenditures, Public
Choose an application
We estimate the subnational employment and GDP multiplier of Brazil's 2020 federal cash transfers to vulnerable households. Using two-stage least squares regressions we estimate a formal employment multiplier and then apply an analytical transformation to recover an implied GDP multiplier in the range of 0.5-1.5. The lower bound of this range lies below most estimates in the literature, which may result from the exceptional constraints imposed by the pandemic on supply chains and consumption. Nevertheless, even using the lower end of our range implies that federal cash transfers played an important role in supporting employment and GDP.
Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Labor --- Diseases: Contagious --- Demography --- Public Finance --- Fiscal Policy --- National Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs --- Finance in Urban and Rural Economies --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Health Behavior --- Demographic Economics: General --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Labour --- income economics --- Infectious & contagious diseases --- Population & demography --- Public finance & taxation --- Informal employment --- Public employment --- COVID-19 --- Health --- Population and demographics --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Economic theory --- Communicable diseases --- Population --- Expenditures, Public --- Covid-19 --- Income economics
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