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This paper assesses the dynamic pass-through of crude oil price shocks to retail fuel prices using a novel database on monthly retail fuel prices for 162 countries. The impulse response functions suggest that on average, a one cent increase in crude oil prices per liter translates into a 1.2 cent increase in the retail gasoline price at peak level six months after the shock. However, the estimates vary significantly across country groups, ranging from about 0.5 cent in MENA countries to two cents in advanced economies. The results also show that positive oil price shocks have a larger impact than negative price shocks on the retail gasoline price. Finally, the paper underscores the importance of the new dataset in refining estimates of the fiscal cost of incomplete pass-through.
Petroleum products --- Pass-through businesses --- Flow-through businesses --- Pass-through entities (Business enterprises) --- Pass-throughs (Business enterprises) --- Corporations --- Small business --- Mazut --- Petroleum --- Hydraulic fluids --- Prices&delete& --- Econometric models --- Law and legislation --- Taxation --- Refining --- E-books --- Prices --- Econometric models. --- Investments: Energy --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Hydrocarbon Fuels --- Energy: Government Policy --- Taxation and Subsidies: Externalities --- Redistributive Effects --- Environmental Taxes and Subsidies --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Energy: General --- Energy industries & utilities --- Investment & securities --- Fuel prices --- Oil prices --- Energy subsidies --- Gasoline --- Expenditure --- Commodities --- Expenditures, Public --- Gas industry --- United States
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We estimate the dynamic effects of changes in retail energy prices on inflation using a novel monthly database, covering 110 countries over 2000:M1 to 2016:M6. We find that (i) inflation responds positively to retail energy price shocks, with effects being, on average, modest and transitory. However, our results suggest significant heterogeneity in the response of inflation to these shocks owing to differences in factors related to labor market flexibility, energy intensity, and monetary policy credibility. We also find compelling evidence of asymmetric effects—under sufficiently large shocks—in the case of high-income and low-income countries, with increases in retail fuel prices inducing larger effects on inflation than decreases in fuel prices.
Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Taxation and Subsidies: Externalities --- Redistributive Effects --- Environmental Taxes and Subsidies --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Fuel prices --- Energy prices --- Oil prices --- Personal income --- National accounts --- Income --- United States
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We estimate the dynamic effects of changes in retail energy prices on inflation using a novel monthly database, covering 110 countries over 2000:M1 to 2016:M6. We find that (i) inflation responds positively to retail energy price shocks, with effects being, on average, modest and transitory. However, our results suggest significant heterogeneity in the response of inflation to these shocks owing to differences in factors related to labor market flexibility, energy intensity, and monetary policy credibility. We also find compelling evidence of asymmetric effects—under sufficiently large shocks—in the case of high-income and low-income countries, with increases in retail fuel prices inducing larger effects on inflation than decreases in fuel prices.
United States --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Taxation and Subsidies: Externalities --- Redistributive Effects --- Environmental Taxes and Subsidies --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Fuel prices --- Energy prices --- Oil prices --- Personal income --- National accounts --- Income
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Achieving fiscal consolidation without undermining growth and poverty-reduction efforts is a key policy challenge in many countries. Using India as an illustration, this paper shows how a mix of well-designed taxation and spending policies can help address these challenges. On the tax side, the analysis focuses on increasing consumption taxes on goods with negative consumption externalities. On the spending side, some of the additional revenues from the tax reform are allocated to scaling up key social transfer programs. Substantial additional gains are possible if the increased social transfers can be accompanied by improved targeting.
Fiscal policy --- Debts, Public --- Spendings tax --- Consumption tax --- Expenditure tax --- Taxation of consumption --- Taxation of expenditures --- Taxation of spendings --- Sales tax --- Taxation --- Macroeconomics --- Distribution: General --- Welfare Economics: General --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Economywide Country Studies: Asia including Middle East --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies --- Labor Economics: General --- Public finance & taxation --- Labour --- income economics --- Income --- Consumption --- Estate tax --- Labor --- Income distribution --- National accounts --- Taxes --- Economics --- Inheritance and transfer tax --- Labor economics --- India --- Income economics
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This note is a reference guide to the econometric work on fiscal multipliers for MENAP countries. Spending and tax multipliers are estimated from conventional VAR models and identified using a sign-restrictions approach. Estimates show that fiscal multipliers tend to be small, except for those associated with government investment spending, which generally exceed unity. For the average MENAP country, fiscal multipliers for current spending, government consumption and government investment spending are 0.5, 0.8, and 1.1,respectively, while the tax revenues multiplier is estimated at around –0.4. There is also significant variation in the size of these multipliers across countries, consistent with differences in economic fundamentals, such as openness to trade and the flexibility of the exchange rate. The estimated multipliers are generally consistent with theoretical priors, and are in line with the evidence from the literature for other economies and categories of spending and taxes.
Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Foreign Exchange --- Fiscal Policy --- Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: General --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures --- Other Public Investment and Capital Stock --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Public finance & taxation --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Fiscal multipliers --- Public investment spending --- Revenue administration --- Current spending --- Expenditure --- Fiscal policy --- Exchange rate flexibility --- Expenditures, Public --- Public investments --- Revenue --- United States
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We compile a novel database on average public and private sector wages and public-private wage differentials, which we use to analyze how average public-private wage differentials vary according to gender and skill level as well as over time. We further examine the dynamic relationship between public and private wage levels and the implications for inflation. On average, public-sector workers earn around 10 percent more relative to comparable private sector workers, with the premium being higher for women, low-skilled workers, and in developing countries. The average public sector wage premium varies counter-cyclically, increasing during economic downturns, and increases prior to elections. Both private sector wages and inflation respond positively to changes in public wages, albeit with significant heterogeneity in the effects across countries reflecting differences in labor market characteristics and prevailing macroeconomic conditions.
Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Labor --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Public Sector Labor Markets --- Personnel Economics: Compensation and Compensation Methods and Their Effects --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Labour --- income economics --- Wages --- Public sector wages --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics
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We compile a novel database on average public and private sector wages and public-private wage differentials, which we use to analyze how average public-private wage differentials vary according to gender and skill level as well as over time. We further examine the dynamic relationship between public and private wage levels and the implications for inflation. On average, public-sector workers earn around 10 percent more relative to comparable private sector workers, with the premium being higher for women, low-skilled workers, and in developing countries. The average public sector wage premium varies counter-cyclically, increasing during economic downturns, and increases prior to elections. Both private sector wages and inflation respond positively to changes in public wages, albeit with significant heterogeneity in the effects across countries reflecting differences in labor market characteristics and prevailing macroeconomic conditions.
Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Labor --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Public Sector Labor Markets --- Personnel Economics: Compensation and Compensation Methods and Their Effects --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Labour --- income economics --- Wages --- Public sector wages --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Income economics
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After fifteen years of reconstruction in a relatively peaceful environment spanning the years 1990 to 2004, Lebanon has experienced successive violent political events resulting from complex entangled internal and external struggles. The Syrian crisis and its political, economic and demographic consequences on Lebanon have increased these tensions. This atlas sheds light on these new challenges and adds new data that complete the analyses already published in the Atlas du Liban. Territoires et société (Atlas of Lebanon. Territories and Society) released in 2007 by the same research team. Some of its components are included in this edition. Beyond the international regional crisis and the population movements, it takes into account Lebanon’s socio-economic dimensions, the environmental issues linked to uncontrolled urbanization and to natural risks, as well as conflicts due to local territorial management. This atlas is the result of a collaborative endeavor between French and Lebanese researchers. It uses a geographical approach that puts in the foreground a spatial analysis of social and natural phenomena. Public sources are scarce in Lebanon, especially at the local scale. They are sometimes less reliable and difficult to access. It is particularly the case for the Lebanese census data, conversely data are abundantly available on the refugees population, which is less known than the population of refugees. International data help compare Lebanon to its neighbors. Thematic data produced by some ministries are helpful to provide a detailed view regarding specific domains. Analyses processed on aerial and satellite images have produced essential data on urbanization and environment. Local thematic fieldwork surveys have provided additional data. The book consists of seven chapters. The first one deals with the territorial state-building seen in the light of regional geopolitics, and emphasizes internal violence and the reemergence of militias and armed groups that…
Geography --- cartographie --- migration --- géopolitique --- fragmentation --- pauvreté --- urbanisation --- dégradation environnementale --- inégalité régionale --- changement climatique --- mobilisation sociale --- pénurie d'eau --- pénurie éléctrique --- crise des déchets --- urbanisme --- reconstruction --- réfugié --- gestion locale --- décentralisation --- cartography --- refugees --- geopolitics --- regional inequalities --- poverty --- urbanization --- environmental degradation --- pollution --- climate change --- natural risks --- water shortage --- electricity shortage --- solid waste crisis --- city planning --- social mobilization --- local spatial management --- decentralization --- planning controversies
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