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The last decade or so has seen a mushrooming of new sovereign debt databases covering long time spans for several countries. This represents an important breakthrough for economists who have long sought to, but been unable to tackle, first-order questions such as why countries have differential debt tolerance, and how debt levels affect the scope for countercyclical policy in recessions and financial crises. This paper backdrops these recent data efforts, identifying both the key innovations, as well as caveats that users should be aware of. A Directory of existing publicly-available sovereign debt databases, featuring compilations by institutions and individual researchers, is also included.
Debt. --- Indebtedness --- Finance --- Exports and Imports --- Finance: General --- Financial Risk Management --- Public Finance --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Financial Crises --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Public finance & taxation --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- International economics --- Public debt --- Domestic debt --- Financial crises --- External debt --- Emerging and frontier financial markets --- Financial markets --- Debts, Public --- Debts, External --- Financial services industry --- United States
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We develop a new public domestic debt (DD) database covering 93 low-income countries and emerging markets over the 1975-2004 period to estimate the growth impact of DD. Moderate levels of non-inflationary DD, as a share of GDP and bank deposits, are found to exert a positive overall impact on economic growth. Granger-causality regressions suggest support for a variety of channels: improved monetary policy; broader financial market development; strengthened domestic institutions/accountability; and enhanced private savings and financial intermediation. There is some evidence that, above a ratio of 35% percent of bank deposits, DD begins to undermine growth, lending credence to traditional crowding out and bank efficiency concerns. Importantly, the growth contribution of DD is higher if it is marketable, bears positive real interest rates and is held outside the banking system. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate.
Development economics. --- Economic development. --- Banks and Banking --- Econometrics --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Fiscal Policy --- Foreign Aid --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Estimation --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Public finance & taxation --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Banking --- Domestic debt --- Income --- Government debt management --- Estimation techniques --- Public debt --- National accounts --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Econometric analysis --- Private savings --- Debts, Public --- Econometric models --- Banks and banking --- Saving and investment --- South Africa
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The observed increase in the level and volatility of Tanzania's Treasury yields in recent years against an otherwise benign macroeconomic backdrop presented a puzzle for policymakers, while raising concerns about the fiscal burden of rising debt interest payments and diversion of bank credit away from the private sector. Using evidence from bid-level data and supported by theoretical models, this paper argues that oligopolistic bidding through 2005 may have been partly responsible for the rising level of yields; while the high volatility during 2006-07 could be traced to the emergence of a sharp segmentation of the T-bill market between sophisticated financial market players (foreign-controlled banks) and a lessexperienced group of investors (domestic pension funds and small banks). An important policy recommendation that emerges is that public debt managers should avoid micromanaging Treasury bill auctions by issuing amounts in excess of those offered or by dipping into oversubscribed segments of the yield curve, as such practices seriously disadvantage the less-sophisticated (but more competitive) investors vis-à-vis the more sophisticated players.
Banks and Banking --- Investments: General --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Investment & securities --- Banking --- Treasury bills and bonds --- Government securities --- Foreign banks --- Commercial banks --- Banks and banking --- Banks and banking, Foreign --- Tanzania, United Republic of
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A Guide to Sovereign Debt Data.
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The paper aims to identify the optimal size, speed and composition of the medium-term fiscal adjustment in the context of Sudan's limited oil reserves. The permanently sustainable non-oil primary balance approach suggests the need for significant fiscal adjustment over the medium term, requiring a widening of the tax base. Cross-country comparisons highlight VAT and personal income tax (as well as tax administration) as key areas for reform. The paper also suggests the need for complementary expenditure-side measures in the areas of petroleum pricing and anchoring fiscal policy in non-oil indicators.
Intergovernmental fiscal relations --- Fiscal policy --- Tax policy --- Taxation --- Economic policy --- Finance, Public --- Federal-state fiscal relations --- Fiscal relations, Intergovernmental --- State-local fiscal relations --- Federal government --- Local finance --- Government policy --- Law and legislation --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Business Taxes and Subsidies --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Fiscal Policy --- Public finance & taxation --- Expenditure --- Public debt --- Oil, gas and mining taxes --- Oil prices --- Fiscal consolidation --- Expenditures, Public --- Debts, Public --- Sudan
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This paper assembles a new dataset on corporate income tax regimes in 50 emerging and developing economies over 1996-2007 and analyzes their impact on corporate tax revenues and domestic and foreign investment. It computes effective tax rates to take account of complicated special regimes, such as partial tax holidays, temporarily reduced rates and increased investment allowances. There is evidence of a partial race to the bottom: countries have been under pressure to lower tax rates in order to lure and boost investment. In the case of standard tax systems (i.e. tax rules applying under normal circumstances), the effective tax rate reductions have not been larger than those witnessed in advanced economies, and revenues have held up well over the sample period. However, a race to the bottom is evident among special regimes, most notably in the case of Africa, creating effectively a parallel tax system where rates have fallen to almost zero. Regression analysis reveals higher tax rates adversely affect domestic investment and FDI, but do raise revenues in the short-run.
Corporations --- Business corporations --- C corporations --- Corporations, Business --- Corporations, Public --- Limited companies --- Publicly held corporations --- Publicly traded corporations --- Public limited companies --- Stock corporations --- Subchapter C corporations --- Business enterprises --- Corporate power --- Disincorporation --- Stocks --- Trusts, Industrial --- Corporate income tax --- Corporate taxes --- Corporation income tax --- Corporation tax --- Federal corporation tax --- Franchises, Taxation of --- Taxation of franchises --- Taxation --- Taxation. --- Finance --- Valuation --- Public Finance --- Corporate Taxation --- Fiscal Policy --- Business Taxes and Subsidies --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Public finance & taxation --- Corporate & business tax --- Revenue administration --- Effective tax rate --- Average effective tax rate --- Marginal effective tax rate --- Taxes --- Tax policy --- Tax administration and procedure --- Revenue --- Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China
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task has become particularly challenging in European advanced economies where expectations of low growth and limits to monetary policy support are shifting the burden of adjustment onto fiscal consolidation. The SDN will investigate the main drivers behind successful past debt reversals, focusing on macroeconomic and financial market conditions, the speed and form of fiscal adjustment, and the institutional policy setting, among other things. Its policy conclusions will depend on the emerging stylized facts but are likely to include considerations on the design and pace of fiscal consolidation, taking into account country-specific as well as regional economic, institutional, and political factors.
Financial Risk Management --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Fiscal Policy --- National Budget, Deficit, and Debt: General --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Finance --- Public finance & taxation --- Debt reduction --- Fiscal stance --- Fiscal consolidation --- Public debt --- Asset and liability management --- Fiscal policy --- Prices --- Debts, External --- Debts, Public --- Italy
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We examine how the composition of public debt, broken down by currency, maturity, holder profile and marketability, has responded to major debt accumulation and consolidation episodes during 1900-2011. Covering thirteen advanced economies, we focus on debt structure shifts that occurred around the two World Wars and global economic downturns, and the subsequent debt consolidations. Notwithstanding data gaps, we are able to recover some broad common patterns. Episodes of large debt accumulation—essentially, large increases in debt supply— were typically absorbed by increases in short-term, foreign currency-denominated, and banking-system-held debt. However, this pattern did not hold during the debt build-ups starting in the 1980s and 1990s, which were compositionally skewed toward long-term local-currency debt. We attribute this change to higher structural demand for sovereign paper, linked to capital account liberalization in advanced economies, the emergence of a large contractual saving sector, and innovative sovereign debt products. With regard to debt consolidations, we find support for the financial repression-cum-inflation channel for post World War II debt reductions. However, the scope for a repeat of this strategy appears limited unless financial liberalization and globalization were materially rolled back or the current globally agreed monetary policy regime built around price stability abandoned. Neither are significant favorable structural demand shifts, as witnessed in the 1980s and 1990s, likely.
Debts, Public --- Developing countries --- Economic conditions. --- Banks and Banking --- Financial Risk Management --- Public Finance --- Inflation --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Public finance & taxation --- Finance --- Banking --- Macroeconomics --- Public debt --- Domestic debt --- Government debt management --- Debt management --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Asset and liability management --- Prices --- Banks and banking --- United States
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In response to the global financial crisis, governments provided substantial support to the financial and other key sectors. Although this cushioned the adverse effects of the crisis, it is necessary now to articulate a strategy to ensure the sustainability of public finances. This paper discusses the scale and composition of fiscal adjustment that will need to occur once the recovery is securely under way. Although specific country-level circumstances will influence the composition of the adjustment and its political feasibility, in many cases restoring fiscal sustainability will require reforms to reduce spending and increase tax revenue.
Fiscal policy. --- Structural adjustment (Economic policy) --- Debts, Public. --- Government spending policy. --- Budget. --- Financial crises --- Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009. --- Government policy. --- Global Economic Crisis, 2008-2009 --- Subprime Mortgage Crisis, 2008-2009 --- Crashes, Financial --- Crises, Financial --- Financial crashes --- Financial panics --- Panics (Finance) --- Stock exchange crashes --- Stock market panics --- Crises --- Budgeting --- Expenditures, Public --- Finance, Public --- Public spending policy --- Spending policy, Government --- Economic policy --- Full employment policies --- Unfunded mandates --- Debts, Government --- Government debts --- National debts --- Public debt --- Public debts --- Sovereign debt --- Debt --- Bonds --- Deficit financing --- Tax policy --- Taxation --- Forecasting --- Government policy --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Fiscal Policy --- Social Security and Public Pensions --- Public finance & taxation --- Pensions --- Fiscal stance --- Fiscal consolidation --- Domestic debt --- Pension spending --- Fiscal policy --- Expenditure --- Debts, Public --- Japan
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