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Commercial Real Estate Prices During COVID-19: What is Driving the Divergence?
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ISBN: 9798400215353 Year: 2022 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

After dropping sharply in the early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic, commercial real estate prices are on the mend. However, the initial price decline, as well as the pace of recovery, vary widely across regions and different segments of the commercial real estate market. This note analyzes the factors that explain this divergence using city-level data from major advanced and emerging market economies. The findings show that pandemic-specific factors such as the stringency of containment measures and the spread of the virus are strongly associated with a decline in prices, while fiscal support and easy financial conditions maintained by central banks have helped to cushion the shock. A higher vaccination rate has aided the recovery of the sector, especially in the retail segment. Structural changes in private behavior such as the trend toward teleworking and e-commerce have also had an impact on commercial property prices in some segments. The outlook of the sector across regions thus remains closely tied to the trajectory of the pandemic and broader macroeconomic recovery, financial market conditions, and the pace of structural shifts in the demand for specific property types. In an environment of tightening financial conditions and a slowdown in economic activity, continued vigilance is warranted on the part of financial supervisors to minimize financial stability risks stemming from potential adverse shocks to the sector.


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Republic of Lithuania : 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report.
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ISBN: 9798400217241 Year: 2022 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This 2022 Article IV Consultation with the Republic of Lithuania highlights the recent spike in global energy and food prices and persistent supply bottlenecks have compounded inflationary pressures, disproportionately hurting the poor. The authorities’ response to the energy crisis aims to limit economic disruptions, provide targeted support to the vulnerable, and allow for market price signals. Higher revenues from inflation allow the budget to accommodate pressures for higher social and defense spending in the short-term, but difficult tradeoffs await down the road. The banking system has ample capital and liquidity buffers to withstand a weakening economic environment or even greater shocks. Further efforts are needed to mitigate money laundering risks in the financial sector, particularly from the dynamic and growing fintech sector. A comprehensive carbon tax will be necessary to achieve the authorities’ emission reduction objectives for 2030. Structural reforms are necessary to ensure continued income convergence. The authorities need to address structural impediments by accelerating reforms in education and healthcare, and by closing gaps in the transportation infrastructure, and reducing information asymmetries that limit access to financing for small and medium enterprises.


Book
The Philippines : Technical Assistance Report - Report on the Residential Property Price Index Mission (January 22-26, 2024).
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ISBN: 9798400282539 Year: 2024 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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A technical assistance (TA) mission was conducted from January 22–26, 2024, to assist the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) with the development of hedonic methods for their property price statistics. The mission’s primary focus was the Residential Property Price Index (RPPI). The mission completed the following tasks: (i) assisted the BSP to apply hedonic methods for the compilation of the RPPI using the existing loan information, (ii) provided practical training to staff, (iii) helped devise a strategy for dissemination of the revised results, and (iv) made recommendations on accessing and using more comprehensive administrative data sources for the compilation of property price statistics.


Book
Interest Rate Elasticity of Residential Housing Prices
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 1451915586 1462307353 128284198X 1451871058 9786612841989 1452761183 Year: 2008 Volume: WP/08/247 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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We examine the interest rate elasticity of housing prices, advancingthe empirical literature in two directions. First, we take a commonly used cross-country panel dataset and evaluate the housing price equation using a consistent estimator in the presence of endogenous explanatory variables and a lagged dependent variable. Second, we carry-out a novel analysis of determinants of residential housing prices in a cross-section of countries. Our results show that the short-term interest rate, and hence monetary policy, has a sizable impact on residential housing prices.


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Regional Economic Outlook, May 2008, Middle East and Central Asia.
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ISBN: 1589067150 1462318924 1451978162 9786613846075 145275134X 1283533626 Year: 2008 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The Middle East and Central Asia region grew at 6.5 percent in 2007, marking its best five-year performance over the past 30 years. So far, the turmoil in international financial markets has had a limited impact on the region, and the short-term outlook remains very favorable. The report reviews recent economic developments, assesses the outlook for the coming year, and discusses key policy challenges. In addition, it takes a closer look at both regional topics--such as the rise in inflation in the GCC countries, intraregional capital flows, developments in oil markets, developments in real estate prices, and sovereign wealth funds--and country reviews for Algeria, Georgia, Iraq, and West Bank and Gaza.


Book
Exposure to Real Estate Losses : Evidence from the US Banks
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1451916612 1282843001 1451872267 1451987277 9786612843006 146230835X Year: 2009 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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We implement a three-step procedure to assess the extent of exposure to real estate in commercial banks. First, we demonstrate interest rates and income to be the major determinants of delinquency. Then, we adopt a stress testing approach to calculate the impact of any adverse changes in these determinants. This suggests that a 1.3 percentage point increase in mortgage interest rate leads to a 20 percent decrease in a typical bank's distance to default. Finally, we look at the cross-sectional differences and indentify the banks with rapid loan growth along with high cost-income ratio as the most vulnerable.


Book
Nepal : Selected Issues.
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ISBN: 1462301908 1455299006 1282846647 1455202401 9786612846649 1455207799 Year: 2010 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Over the past several years, Nepal has pursued a prudent fiscal policy, which has resulted in a significant reduction of public debt as a percentage of GDP. This paper reexamines the fiscal stance in Nepal in light of recent developments. The optimal level of the fiscal deficit is constrained by the need to achieve and sustain a debt-to-GDP ratio with an acceptable level of vulnerability to distress. The debt sustainability analyses (DSA) framework focuses on the net present value (NPV) of external public and publicly guaranteed debt, though public debt is also analyzed.


Book
Lending Booms, Real Estate Bubbles and the Asian Crisis
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462318800 1452715998 1281604631 9786613785329 1451891660 Year: 2002 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper examines the link between lending booms, asset price cycles, and financial crises across East Asian countries. Both theoretical arguments and empirical evidence support a strong relationship between bank lending and asset price inflation, especially in the real estate market. While asset price bubbles were present in most Asian countries during the 1990s, their subsequent bust has affected countries quite differently. Some countries underwent severe exchange and financial crises, while others were able to weather the storm with much less damage. This experience underlines the importance of a strong bank regulatory system.


Book
Real Estate Market Developments and Financal Sector Soundness
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 1462317618 1452711887 1282107402 1451900392 9786613800756 Year: 2001 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper analyses the characteristics and functioning of real estate markets. It focuses on the relationship between developments in these markets and the financial sector to determine under what circumstances real estate booms and busts can develop and how they can affect the health and stability of the financial system. It concludes that unbalanced real estate price developments often contribute to financial sector distress and that trends in real estate markets should be monitored closely in the context of financial sector assessments.

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