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After dropping sharply in the early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic, commercial real estate prices are on the mend. However, the initial price decline, as well as the pace of recovery, vary widely across regions and different segments of the commercial real estate market. This note analyzes the factors that explain this divergence using city-level data from major advanced and emerging market economies. The findings show that pandemic-specific factors such as the stringency of containment measures and the spread of the virus are strongly associated with a decline in prices, while fiscal support and easy financial conditions maintained by central banks have helped to cushion the shock. A higher vaccination rate has aided the recovery of the sector, especially in the retail segment. Structural changes in private behavior such as the trend toward teleworking and e-commerce have also had an impact on commercial property prices in some segments. The outlook of the sector across regions thus remains closely tied to the trajectory of the pandemic and broader macroeconomic recovery, financial market conditions, and the pace of structural shifts in the demand for specific property types. In an environment of tightening financial conditions and a slowdown in economic activity, continued vigilance is warranted on the part of financial supervisors to minimize financial stability risks stemming from potential adverse shocks to the sector.
Commercial real estate. --- Pandemics. --- Communicable diseases --- Covid-19 --- Currency crises --- Diseases: Contagious --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economic sectors --- Economics of specific sectors --- Economics: General --- Financial crises --- Health Behavior --- Health --- Health: Government Policy --- Housing --- Infectious & contagious diseases --- Land prices --- Macroeconomics --- Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets --- Prices --- Property & real estate --- Public Health --- Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location: General --- Real estate prices --- Real Estate Services --- Real Estate --- Regulation --- Vaccination --- Vaccinations --- United States
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This 2022 Article IV Consultation with the Republic of Lithuania highlights the recent spike in global energy and food prices and persistent supply bottlenecks have compounded inflationary pressures, disproportionately hurting the poor. The authorities’ response to the energy crisis aims to limit economic disruptions, provide targeted support to the vulnerable, and allow for market price signals. Higher revenues from inflation allow the budget to accommodate pressures for higher social and defense spending in the short-term, but difficult tradeoffs await down the road. The banking system has ample capital and liquidity buffers to withstand a weakening economic environment or even greater shocks. Further efforts are needed to mitigate money laundering risks in the financial sector, particularly from the dynamic and growing fintech sector. A comprehensive carbon tax will be necessary to achieve the authorities’ emission reduction objectives for 2030. Structural reforms are necessary to ensure continued income convergence. The authorities need to address structural impediments by accelerating reforms in education and healthcare, and by closing gaps in the transportation infrastructure, and reducing information asymmetries that limit access to financing for small and medium enterprises.
Lithuania, Republic of --- Money and Monetary Policy --- International Economics --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Industries: Financial Services --- Labor --- Real Estate --- Monetary Policy --- International Agreements and Observance --- International Organizations --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location: General --- Monetary economics --- International institutions --- Finance --- Labour --- income economics --- Property & real estate --- Monetary policy --- International organization --- Financial institutions --- International agencies --- Loans --- Wages --- Housing --- Fiscal policy --- Income economics
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Selected Issues.
Banking --- Banks and Banking --- Banks --- Central bank policy rate --- Deflation --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Depository Institutions --- Finance --- Financial institutions --- Financial services --- Housing --- Income economics --- Industries: Financial Services --- Inflation --- Interest rates --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Labor market --- Labor markets --- Labor --- Labour --- Macroeconomics --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Price Level --- Prices --- Property & real estate --- Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location: General --- Real estate prices --- Real Estate --- Switzerland
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A technical assistance (TA) mission was conducted from January 22–26, 2024, to assist the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) with the development of hedonic methods for their property price statistics. The mission’s primary focus was the Residential Property Price Index (RPPI). The mission completed the following tasks: (i) assisted the BSP to apply hedonic methods for the compilation of the RPPI using the existing loan information, (ii) provided practical training to staff, (iii) helped devise a strategy for dissemination of the revised results, and (iv) made recommendations on accessing and using more comprehensive administrative data sources for the compilation of property price statistics.
Banks --- Computer Programs: General --- Data capture & analysis --- Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology --- Data collection --- Databases --- Depository Institutions --- Economic and financial statistics --- Economic statistics --- Export fluctuations --- Exports and Imports --- Exports --- Finance --- Financial institutions --- Housing --- Industries: Financial Services --- International economics --- International trade --- Land prices --- Loans --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets --- Prices --- Property & real estate --- Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location: General --- Real estate prices --- Real Estate --- Trade: General --- Philippines
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We examine the interest rate elasticity of housing prices, advancingthe empirical literature in two directions. First, we take a commonly used cross-country panel dataset and evaluate the housing price equation using a consistent estimator in the presence of endogenous explanatory variables and a lagged dependent variable. Second, we carry-out a novel analysis of determinants of residential housing prices in a cross-section of countries. Our results show that the short-term interest rate, and hence monetary policy, has a sizable impact on residential housing prices.
Interest rates --- Elasticity (Economics) --- Housing --- Econometric models. --- Prices --- Affordable housing --- Homes --- Houses --- Housing needs --- Residences --- Slum clearance --- Urban housing --- Coefficient of elasticity --- Demand elasticity --- Elasticity, Coefficient of --- Elasticity of demand --- Price elasticity of demand --- Social aspects --- City planning --- Dwellings --- Human settlements --- Demand (Economic theory) --- Economics --- Banks and Banking --- Infrastructure --- Real Estate --- Industries: Financial Services --- Housing Supply and Markets --- Economic Development: Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location: General --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Property & real estate --- Macroeconomics --- Finance --- Housing prices --- Short term interest rates --- Real estate prices --- Saving and investment --- United States
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The Middle East and Central Asia region grew at 6.5 percent in 2007, marking its best five-year performance over the past 30 years. So far, the turmoil in international financial markets has had a limited impact on the region, and the short-term outlook remains very favorable. The report reviews recent economic developments, assesses the outlook for the coming year, and discusses key policy challenges. In addition, it takes a closer look at both regional topics--such as the rise in inflation in the GCC countries, intraregional capital flows, developments in oil markets, developments in real estate prices, and sovereign wealth funds--and country reviews for Algeria, Georgia, Iraq, and West Bank and Gaza.
Business & Economics --- Economic History --- Economic forecasting --- Middle East --- Asia, Central --- Economic conditions. --- Economics --- Forecasting --- Economic indicators --- Investments: Energy --- Finance: General --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Real Estate --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Energy: General --- Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location: General --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Investment & securities --- Property & real estate --- Finance --- International economics --- Oil prices --- Oil --- Real estate prices --- Emerging and frontier financial markets --- Commodities --- Financial markets --- Petroleum industry and trade --- Housing --- Financial services industry --- Fiscal policy --- United States
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We implement a three-step procedure to assess the extent of exposure to real estate in commercial banks. First, we demonstrate interest rates and income to be the major determinants of delinquency. Then, we adopt a stress testing approach to calculate the impact of any adverse changes in these determinants. This suggests that a 1.3 percentage point increase in mortgage interest rate leads to a 20 percent decrease in a typical bank's distance to default. Finally, we look at the cross-sectional differences and indentify the banks with rapid loan growth along with high cost-income ratio as the most vulnerable.
Business & Economics --- Real Estate, Housing & Land Use --- Real estate investment --- Real property --- Banks and Banking --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Real Estate --- Industries: Financial Services --- Macroeconomics --- Household Behavior: General --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets --- Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location: General --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Finance --- Banking --- Property & real estate --- Monetary economics --- Loans --- Real estate prices --- Bank credit --- Financial institutions --- Prices --- Money --- Personal income --- National accounts --- Banks and banking --- Housing --- Credit --- Income --- United States
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Over the past several years, Nepal has pursued a prudent fiscal policy, which has resulted in a significant reduction of public debt as a percentage of GDP. This paper reexamines the fiscal stance in Nepal in light of recent developments. The optimal level of the fiscal deficit is constrained by the need to achieve and sustain a debt-to-GDP ratio with an acceptable level of vulnerability to distress. The debt sustainability analyses (DSA) framework focuses on the net present value (NPV) of external public and publicly guaranteed debt, though public debt is also analyzed.
Finance --- Banks and banking --- Nepal --- Economic policy. --- Economic conditions. --- Agricultural banks --- Banking --- Banking industry --- Commercial banks --- Depository institutions --- Funding --- Funds --- Financial institutions --- Money --- Economics --- Currency question --- Banks and Banking --- Exports and Imports --- Public Finance --- Real Estate --- Industries: Financial Services --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location: General --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Public finance & taxation --- International economics --- Property & real estate --- Monetary economics --- Public debt --- External debt --- Real estate prices --- Credit --- Nonperforming loans --- Prices --- Debts, Public --- Debts, External --- Housing --- Loans
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This paper examines the link between lending booms, asset price cycles, and financial crises across East Asian countries. Both theoretical arguments and empirical evidence support a strong relationship between bank lending and asset price inflation, especially in the real estate market. While asset price bubbles were present in most Asian countries during the 1990s, their subsequent bust has affected countries quite differently. Some countries underwent severe exchange and financial crises, while others were able to weather the storm with much less damage. This experience underlines the importance of a strong bank regulatory system.
Financial Risk Management --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Real Estate --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets --- Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location: General --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Financial Crises --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Property & real estate --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Monetary economics --- Land prices --- Real estate prices --- Asset prices --- Asset bubbles --- Credit --- Prices --- Financial crises --- Money --- Housing --- Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China
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This paper analyses the characteristics and functioning of real estate markets. It focuses on the relationship between developments in these markets and the financial sector to determine under what circumstances real estate booms and busts can develop and how they can affect the health and stability of the financial system. It concludes that unbalanced real estate price developments often contribute to financial sector distress and that trends in real estate markets should be monitored closely in the context of financial sector assessments.
Banks and Banking --- Real Estate --- Industries: Financial Services --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location: General --- Financial Institutions and Services: General --- Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Property & real estate --- Banking --- Monetary economics --- Real estate prices --- Financial sector --- Land prices --- Commercial banks --- Prices --- Economic sectors --- Financial institutions --- Credit --- Money --- Housing --- Financial services industry --- Banks and banking --- Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China