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In this paper, we use micro panel data to examine the effects of oil price changes on employment and real wages, at the aggregate and industry levels. We also measure differences in the employment and wage responses for workers differentiated on the basis of skill level. We find that oil price increases result in a substantial decline in real wages for all workers, but raise the relative wage of skilled workers. The use of panel data econometric techniques to control for unobserved heterogeneity is essential to uncover this result, which is completely hidden in OLS estimates. We find that changes in oil prices induce changes in employment shares and relative wages across industries. However, we find little evidence that oil price changes cause labor to consistently flow into those sectors with relative wage increases.

Investments: Energy --- Inflation --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Energy: General --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Wage Level and Structure --- Wage Differentials --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Labour --- income economics --- Investment & securities --- Oil prices --- Oil --- Commodities --- Petroleum industry and trade --- Economic theory --- United States

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We show that US natural gas prices have decoupled from oil prices following substantial institutional and technological changes. We then examine how this interrelationship has evolved in Europe using data for Algeria, one of Europe’s key gas suppliers. Taking into account total gas exports and cyclical conditions in partner countries, we find that gas prices remain linked to oil prices, though the nexus has loosened. Both high oil prices and a modest industrial recovery in partner countries have kept gas exports at low levels in recent years, suggesting changing market forces. The paper then shows how such shifts can have important macroeconomic implications for a big gas exporter such as Algeria.

Natural gas --- Petroleum products --- Prices --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Industries: Energy --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- State Space Models --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- International Finance Forecasting and Simulation --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Hydrocarbon Resources --- Trade: General --- Petroleum, oil & gas industries --- International economics --- Fuel prices --- Oil prices --- Natural gas sector --- Exports --- Export prices --- Economic sectors --- International trade --- Gas industry --- Algeria

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This paper evaluates Azerbaijan’s 2003 Article IV Consultation, Second Review Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF), and Requests for Waivers of Performance Criteria, Extension of Arrangement and Rephasing of Purchases. Performance relative to the quantitative targets under the program was strong, as all quantitative performance criteria and most indicative targets were met. Implementation of the structural reforms under the program was slower than planned, delaying completion of the second review. The authorities are requesting several waivers related to delays in structural reforms.

Investments: Energy --- Macroeconomics --- Taxation --- Industries: Energy --- Social Services and Welfare --- Energy: General --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Government Policy --- Provision and Effects of Welfare Program --- Business Taxes and Subsidies --- Petroleum, oil & gas industries --- Investment & securities --- Social welfare & social services --- Public finance & taxation --- Oil --- Energy sector --- Oil prices --- Oil, gas and mining taxes --- Oil sector --- Commodities --- Economic sectors --- Taxes --- Petroleum industry and trade --- Energy industries --- Poverty --- Azerbaijan, Republic of

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This paper assesses Romania’s Third Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and a Request for Waiver of Performance Criterion. Romania’s macroeconomic performance continued to be favorable, but slippages in wage policy and privatization delayed the completion of the third review. Robust GDP growth continued throughout 2002, and progress in reducing inflation and the current account deficit was better than targeted. However, financial discipline in the state-owned sector remained weak, and the end-September performance criterion on the wage bill in monitored state-owned enterprises was not observed.

Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Taxation --- Industries: Energy --- Inflation --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Comparison of Public and Private Enterprises and Nonprofit Institutions --- Privatization --- Contracting Out --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Business Taxes and Subsidies --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Monetary economics --- Labour --- income economics --- Petroleum, oil & gas industries --- Excise taxes --- Wages --- Energy sector --- Credit --- Excises --- Economic sectors --- Money --- Prices --- Energy industries --- Excise tax --- Romania

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This report provides an overview of the recent economic developments in Armenia by analyzing its output growth, prices, wages, employment, public finances and social safety net, monetary and exchange rate developments, balance of payments, external debt developments, and exchange and trade system. The study evaluates the tax system reforms; outlines the present structure of the energy and other major quasi-fiscal sectors, and reviews the causes of the financial imbalances. The appendix provides a characterization of the publicly-owned utility providers that contribute to the financial problems of the energy sector.

Investments: Energy --- Exports and Imports --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Public Finance --- Industries: Energy --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Electric Utilities --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Petroleum, oil & gas industries --- Investment & securities --- International economics --- Monetary economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Energy sector --- Electricity --- Arrears --- Monetary base --- Revenue administration --- Economic sectors --- Commodities --- External debt --- Money --- Energy industries --- Electric utilities --- Debts, External --- Money supply --- Revenue --- Armenia, Republic of