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Switzerland : Technical Note-Macroprudential Institutional Arrangements and Policies.
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ISBN: 149832231X 1498390781 1498340016 Year: 2014 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This Technical Note on Macroprudential Institutional Arrangements and Policies on Switzerland highlights that macroprudential prudential powers and responsibilities are split across agencies. There is one dedicated macroprudential tool, the Counter Cyclical Buffer, which has a specified framework for decision making and consultation. Developments in real estate and mortgage lending are important systemic concerns. Very loose monetary policy has driven interest rates down to historically low levels, accelerating mortgage lending and bringing total mortgage debt to more than 140 percent of gross domestic product. The authorities have taken measures to address these risks. It is recommended that transparency and accountability could be strengthened by highlighting cross agency activity and policy analysis related to financial stability and macroprudential policies to the public. In a medium-term perspective macroprudential arrangements should be reviewed while considering placing responsibility and powers for macroprudential policies with one institution or committee. Additional measures may be needed. Mortgages to businesses and for commercial purposes deserve further attention and measures.


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Understanding Residential Real Estate in China
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ISBN: 1484337271 1484337255 Year: 2015 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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China’s residential real estate sector plays an important role in the economy and has been a key driver of growth. Since 2014 the sector has softened visibly, reflecting overbuilding across many cities. An orderly adjustment of the sector is welcome. The key questions are how severe the adjustment will be and how long it will last. This paper uses various datasets, an analytical framework to estimate demand and supply conditions, and develops a number of scenarios to determine the oversupply both at the national level and by city tiers. It highlights that the adjustment will be a multiyear process with adverse implications for investment and growth. Smaller cities, as well as those in the Northeast region, face more challenging demand-supply dynamics. The key will be to allow the adjustment to take place, while avoiding a too sharp of an economic slowdown.


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Kuwait : 2015 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Kuwait.
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ISBN: 1513588672 1513508660 1513591525 Year: 2015 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that decline in oil prices has adversely affected Kuwait’s fiscal and current account balances and slowed growth in 2014–15. Real non-oil GDP growth is projected to slow in 2015 and 2016, and pick up to 4 percent in the medium term, supported by government investment in infrastructure and private investment. The fiscal and external positions are projected to deteriorate further in 2015 and 2016, and improve somewhat over the medium term as oil prices and production recover partially.


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Fundamental and Speculative Demands for Housing
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ISBN: 1498304583 1498304567 Year: 2019 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper separates the roles of demand for housing services and belief about future house prices in a house price cycle, by utilizing a feature of user-cost-of-housing that it is sensitive to demand for housing services only. Optimality conditions of producing housing services determine user-cost-of-housing and the elasticity of substitution between land and structures in producing housing services. I find that the impact of demand for housing services on house prices is amplified by a small elasticity of substitution, and demand explained four fifths of the U.S. house price boom in the 2000s.


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Vietnam : Technical Assistance Report-Report on Residential Property Price Statistics Capacity Development Mission.
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ISBN: 1484393260 1484393236 Year: 2019 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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A technical assistance (TA) mission was conducted during July 9–13, 2018 to assist the General Statistics Office of Vietnam (GSO) with the development of a residential property price index (RPPI). This was the first mission conducted to Vietnam under the auspices of the multi-annual STA Data for Decisions (D4D) trust fund. The main objective of TA provided to Vietnam under the D4D will be to assist the GSO to develop an RPPI. The GSO recently launched two initiatives to collect potential source data for the RPPI since taxation data are unreliable in respect of reported transaction prices, and the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) does not collect loan level mortgage data.


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Indonesia : Technical Assistance Report – Residential Property Price Statistics Capacity Development Mission.
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ISBN: 1484365437 1484365445 Year: 2018 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,


Book
Luxembourg : Financial Sector Assessment Program: Technical Note-Macroprudential Framework And Policies.
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ISBN: 1484317017 1484316983 Year: 2017 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This Technical Note discusses the findings and recommendations made in the 2017 Financial Sector Assessment Program for Luxembourg in areas of macroprudential framework and policies. Luxembourg has a large financial system that contributes a significant share of GDP and is globally interconnected. The institutional arrangement is broadly appropriate for effective macroprudential policy, but some areas should be strengthened. The monitoring and analysis of systemic risks by the Banque Centrale du Luxembourg is appropriate and performed on a timely basis. The authorities are encouraged to continue to increase efforts to monitor risks related to the investment fund industry.


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Stress Testing and Calibration of Macroprudential Policy Tools
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Year: 2020 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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We present a semi-structural model of default risk, which is a function of loan and borrower characteristics, economic conditions, and the regulatory environment. We use this model to simulate bank credit losses for stress-testing purposes and to calibrate borrower-based macroprudential tools. The proposed approach is very flexible and is particularly useful when there is limited history of crisis episodes, when crises bring unanticipated shocks where past tail events offer little guidance and when structural shocks or changes in financial regulations have altered the loan default process. We apply the model to quantify mortgage lending risk in two distinct mortgage markets. For each application, we show a range of modeling adjustments that can be made to capture country-specific institutional features. The model uses bank portfolio data broken down by risk bucket and vintage, which enables us to take explicit account of the loan life cycle and to incorporate the housing and economic cycles. This feature facilitates a timely assessment of banks’ loss-absorbing capacity and the buildup of systemic risk conditional on policy. It also enables counterfactual analysis and the evaluation of macroprudential policy interventions.


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Republic of Lithuania : 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report.
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Year: 2022 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This 2022 Article IV Consultation with the Republic of Lithuania highlights the recent spike in global energy and food prices and persistent supply bottlenecks have compounded inflationary pressures, disproportionately hurting the poor. The authorities’ response to the energy crisis aims to limit economic disruptions, provide targeted support to the vulnerable, and allow for market price signals. Higher revenues from inflation allow the budget to accommodate pressures for higher social and defense spending in the short-term, but difficult tradeoffs await down the road. The banking system has ample capital and liquidity buffers to withstand a weakening economic environment or even greater shocks. Further efforts are needed to mitigate money laundering risks in the financial sector, particularly from the dynamic and growing fintech sector. A comprehensive carbon tax will be necessary to achieve the authorities’ emission reduction objectives for 2030. Structural reforms are necessary to ensure continued income convergence. The authorities need to address structural impediments by accelerating reforms in education and healthcare, and by closing gaps in the transportation infrastructure, and reducing information asymmetries that limit access to financing for small and medium enterprises.


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Stress Testing and Calibration of Macroprudential Policy Tools
Authors: ---
ISBN: 151355543X Year: 2020 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

We present a semi-structural model of default risk, which is a function of loan and borrower characteristics, economic conditions, and the regulatory environment. We use this model to simulate bank credit losses for stress-testing purposes and to calibrate borrower-based macroprudential tools. The proposed approach is very flexible and is particularly useful when there is limited history of crisis episodes, when crises bring unanticipated shocks where past tail events offer little guidance and when structural shocks or changes in financial regulations have altered the loan default process. We apply the model to quantify mortgage lending risk in two distinct mortgage markets. For each application, we show a range of modeling adjustments that can be made to capture country-specific institutional features. The model uses bank portfolio data broken down by risk bucket and vintage, which enables us to take explicit account of the loan life cycle and to incorporate the housing and economic cycles. This feature facilitates a timely assessment of banks’ loss-absorbing capacity and the buildup of systemic risk conditional on policy. It also enables counterfactual analysis and the evaluation of macroprudential policy interventions.

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