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Using the dating algorithm by Harding and Pagan (2002) on a quarterly database for 23 emerging market economies (EMEs) and 12 developed countries over the period 1980.Q1 - 2006.Q2, the authors proceed to characterize and compare the business cycle features of these two groups. They first find that recessions are deeper and more frequent among EMEs (especially, among LAC countries) and that expansions are more sizable and longer (especially, among East Asian countries). After this characterization, this paper explores the linkages between the cost of recessions (as measured by the average annual rate of output loss in the peak-to-trough phase of the cycle) and several country-specific factors. The main findings are: (a) adverse terms of trade shocks raises the cost of recessions in countries with a more open trade regime, deeper financial markets and, surprisingly, a more diversified output structure. (b) U.S. interest rate shocks seem to have a significant impact on the cost of recessions in East Asian countries. (c) Recessions tend to be deeper if they coincide with a sudden stop, but the effect tends to be mitigated in countries with deeper domestic credit markets. (d) Countries with stronger institutions tend to have less costly recessions.

Banks & Banking Reform --- Business cycle --- Business cycles --- Central bank --- Commodity prices --- Credit markets --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Debt Markets --- Domestic credit --- Economic policies --- Economic Theory & Research --- Emerging economies --- Emerging market --- Emerging market economies --- Emerging Markets --- Exchange rate --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial markets --- Financial shocks --- Interest rate --- International bank --- Macroeconomic volatility --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Output loss --- Private Sector Development --- Tax --- Trade regime

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The conditions for sustainable growth and development are among the most debated topics in economics, and the consensus is that institutions matter greatly in explaining why some economies are more successful than others over time. Probing the long-term effects of early colonial differences on immigration policy, land distribution, and financial development in a variety of settings, Understanding Long-Run Economic Growth explores the relationship between economic conditions, growth, and inequality, with a focus on how the monopolization of resources by the political elite limits incentives for ordinary people to invest in human capital or technological discovery. Among the topics discussed are the development of credit markets in France, the evolution of transportation companies in the United Kingdom and the United States, and the organization of innovation in the United States.

Economic development. --- Economic history. --- Sokoloff, Kenneth Lee. --- economic growth, economy, geography, development, finance, inequality, land distribution, immigration policy, credit markets, innovation, discovery, technology, human capital, investment, incentives, resources, monopoly, nonfiction, economics, transportation companies, france, england, united kingdom, britain, frontier, urban, centralization, history, mortgage loans, debt, patents.

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With the global financial crisis hitting many countries, policymakers around the world have been weighing different countercyclical policies to support aggregate demand and restore growth. The analysis in this paper estimates a Structural Vector Error Correction model for Tunisia in order to identify the impact of fiscal policy shocks on real output. The authors find that public investment has a small impact on output in the short run but is an important medium-term growth-enhancing countercyclical instrument that has a robust impact on growth. Raising public investment by 1 dinar yields 0.12 dinar the first year, 0.30 dinar the second year, half a dinar the third year, and 1.08 dinars the sixth year. An increase in recurrent expenditure has a smaller but positive and persistent impact on real output. For Tunisia to obtain a larger short-term impact of public spending on output, procurement processes should be made faster and simpler. Finally, the analysis finds a countercyclical pattern of real public investment vis-a-vis real output and a relative rigidity/inelasticity of recurrent expenditures to output fluctuations.

Balance of payment --- Central bank --- Credit guarantees --- Credit markets --- Current account deficit --- Debt Markets --- Economic Stabilization --- Economic Theory and Research --- Emerging Markets --- Equipments --- Export growth --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial crisis --- Fiscal policy --- Instrument --- Interest rate --- International Bank --- Investment and Investment Climate --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Monetary policy --- Negative shock --- Private Sector Development --- Public investment --- Public spending --- Recurrent expenditure --- Recurrent expenditures --- Stock market --- Tax

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August 1995 - By and large, it appears that the goals of agricultural reform are being met in Mexico. But measures such as decoupling income supports and price supports or reorienting research and extension could help farmers who cannot afford access to machinery and purchased inputs and services. Lopez, Nash, and Stanton report the results of a study of Mexican farm households using 1991 survey data and a smaller resurvey of some of the same households in 1993. One study goal was to empirically examine the relationship between assets and the output supply function. Using a production model focusing on capital as a productive input, they found that both the supply level and the responsiveness (elasticities) to changing input and output prices tend to depend on the farmer's net assets and on how productive assets are used. Regression analysis using data from the surveys shows that farmers who use productive assets such as machinery tend to be positively responsive to price changes, while those with no access to such assets are not. Another study goal was to monitor the condition of Mexican farmers in a rapidly changing policy environment. The 1991 survey data suggest that farmers with more limited use of capital inputs (the low-CI group) were more likely to grow principally corn and to grow fewer crops, on average, than the others. They also had more problems getting credit and were less likely to use purchased inputs, such as seeds, fertilizer, and pesticides, or to use a tractor to prepare the soil. They tended to be less well-educated, and their land tended to be of lower quality. Results from the panel data showed conditions generally improving for the average farmer in the sample area between 1991 and 1993, during a period when agricultural reforms were implemented. Cropping patterns were more diversified, the average size of landholdings increased, the average farmer received more credit (in real terms), more farm households earned income from off-farm work, and more farmers used purchased inputs. Asset ownership and educational attainment also improved modestly. The very small low-CI group in this sample fared as well as, or better than, the other groups. True, their level of educational achievement fell, and fewer of them had off-farm income than in 1991. But their use of credit, irrigation, machinery, and purchased inputs increased more than for other groups. The limited data are not proof of a causal link, but the fact that the goals are being met should at least ensure that adverse conditions are not undermining reform. Farmers that lacked access to productive assets did not respond as well to incentives or take advantage of the opportunities presented by reform and may need assistance, particularly to get access to credit markets. There may be a good argument for decoupling income supports from price supports for farmers, since income payments that are independent of the vagaries of production could provide a more stable signal of creditworthiness than price supports do. Possibly reorienting research and extension services more to the needs of low-CI producers could also improve the efficiency with which the sector adjusts to new incentives. Hypotheses and tentative conclusions from this study will be explored further when more data are collected in 1995. This paper - a product of the International Trade Division, International Economics Department---is part of a larger effort in the department to investigate the effects of international trade policy on individual producers. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project Rural Poverty and Agriculture in Mexico: An Analysis of Farm Decisions and Supply Responsiveness (RPO 678-23).

Access To Irrigation --- Agricultural Activities --- Agriculture --- Agriculture and Farming Systems --- Commercial Bank --- Credit Markets --- Crops and Crop Management Systems --- Economic Theory and Research --- Farm Decisions --- Farm Households --- Farm Income --- Farm Work --- Farmer --- Farmers --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Literacy --- Investment and Investment Climate --- Irrigation --- Landholdings --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Markets and Market Access --- Natural Disaster --- Poor Farmer --- Poor Farmers --- Poverty --- Poverty Reduction --- Rural Development --- Rural Development Knowledge and Information Systems --- Rural Financial Markets --- Rural Poverty --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Rural Sector --- Small Farms

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Growing research and policy interest focuses on the misallocation of output and factors of production in developing economies. This paper considers the possible misallocation of financial loans. Using plant-level data on the organized and unorganized sectors, the paper describes the temporal, geographic, and industry distributions of financial loans. The focus of the analysis is the hypothesis that land misallocation might be an important determinant of financial misallocation (for example, because of the role of land as collateral against loans). Using district-industry variations, the analysis finds evidence to support this hypothesis, although it does not find a total reduction in the intensity of financial loans or those being given to new entrants. The analysis also considers differences by gender of business owners and workers in firms. Although potential early gaps for businesses with substantial female employment have disappeared in the organized sector, a sizeable and persistent gap remains in the unorganized sector.

Access to banking --- Access to credit --- Access to external finance --- Access to finance --- Access to financial services --- Access to formal credit --- Access to formal finance --- Access to loans --- Asymmetric information --- Bank branches --- Bank credit --- Bank financing --- Bank loan --- Bank loans --- Banking --- Banking services --- Banks --- Banks and banking reform --- Biases --- Borrower --- Borrowers --- Borrowing --- Business owners --- Business plans --- Capital --- Co-operative banks --- Collateral --- Collateral requirements --- Collateral support --- Commercial banks --- Cost of capital --- Credit --- Credit bureaus --- Credit information --- Credit market --- Credit markets --- Credit policy --- Credit registries --- Credit risk --- Credit support --- Credit-worthiness --- Creditworthiness --- Debt collectors --- Debt markets --- Directed credit --- Disparities in access --- Econometrics --- Economic activity --- Economic growth --- Economic policy --- Economics --- Employment --- Enterprise --- Enterprise development --- Entrepreneur --- Entrepreneurs --- Entrepreneurship --- Equity --- Exclusion --- External finance --- External financing --- Finance and financial sector development --- Financial access --- Financial deepening --- Financial depth --- Financial development --- Financial institutions --- Financial integration --- Financial markets --- Financial sector --- Financial sector development --- Financial services --- Financial strength --- Financing --- Fixed assets --- Formal credit --- Formal finance --- Gender --- Gender inequality --- Government policy --- Governments --- Guarantee --- Households --- Housing --- Human capital --- Inequality --- Information sharing --- Infrastructure --- Intangible assets --- Interest expense --- Interest payment --- Interest rate --- Investment --- Issue of access --- Job creation --- Labor --- Labor market --- Labor markets --- Lack of collateral --- Land markets --- Lenders --- Lending --- Liberalization --- Loan --- Loan access --- Loan demand --- Loans --- Macroeconomics --- Marginal revenue --- Market value --- Markets --- Micro enterprises --- Micro-credit --- Micro-enterprises --- Micro-entrepreneurs --- Micro-finance --- Micro-finance institutions --- Microfinance --- Monetary policy --- Money lenders --- Net value --- Outreach --- Outstanding loan --- Outstanding loans --- Overdraft --- Personal assets --- Private enterprise --- Private enterprises --- Profitability --- Property --- Real estate --- Repossession --- Reserve bank of india --- Resource allocation --- Revenue --- Risk --- Risk perception --- Rural bank --- Rural bank branches --- Services --- Sizes of loan --- Small business --- Small business owners --- Small businesses --- Strategies --- Tangible assets --- Taxes --- Trade credit --- Trade credits --- Transport --- Union --- Urban areas --- Value --- Villages --- Water & industry --- Water resources --- Water supply --- Working capital