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TRIST is a simple, easy to use tool to assess the adjustment implications of trade reform. It improves on existing tools. First, it is an improvement in terms of accuracy because projections are based on revenues actually collected at the tariff line level rather than simply applying statutory rates. Second, it is transparent and open; runs in Excel, with formulas and calculation steps visible to the user; and is open-source and users are free to change, extend, or improve according to their needs. Third, TRIST has greater policy relevance because it projects the impact of tariff reform on total fiscal revenue (including VAT and excise) and results are broken down to the product level so that sensitive products or sectors can be identified. And fourth, the tool is flexible and can incorporate tariff liberalization scenarios involving any group of trading partners and any schedules of products. This paper describes the TRIST tool and provides a range of examples that demonstrate the insights that the tool can provide to policy makers on the adjustment impacts of reducing tariffs.

Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Customs --- Customs duties --- Debt Markets --- Developing countries --- Domestic production --- Economic Theory and Research --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Free Trade --- Free trade --- Import regimes --- Imports --- International Economics & Trade --- International trade --- International Trade and Trade Rules --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Multilateral trade reform --- Public Sector Development --- Regional trade agreements --- Tariff exemptions --- Tariff line --- Tariff reform --- Trade diversion --- Trade model --- Trade policy --- Trade policy reform --- Trade reform --- Trade reforms --- Trade regime

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The scope and complexity of international trading arrangements in the Middle East, as well as their spotty historical record of success, underscores the urgent need for an adequate understanding of the relative costs and benefits of participation in preferential trading arrangements and, more generally, of changes in domestic import regimes. This paper seeks to address this problem by providing estimates of the adjustment costs associated with two broad classes of hypothetical trade policy scenarios for Syria: participation in preferential trading arrangements, and changes in the domestic import regime. The authors find that the revenue consequences of the first scenario may be substantial. Their analysis of the second scenario suggests that the number of tariff bands can be reduced, while ensuring revenue neutrality, via the introduction of a value added tax of sufficient but reasonable size.

Common market --- Customs --- Debt Markets --- Economic Theory & Research --- Equilibrium --- Exports --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Free Trade --- Free trade area --- General equilibrium --- Import regime --- Import regimes --- Import taxes --- Imports --- International Economics and Trade --- International trade --- International Trade and Trade Rules --- International trading --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Tariff lines --- Tariff reform --- Trade adjustment --- Trade models --- Trade Policy --- Trade promotion --- Trade reform

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The scope and complexity of international trading arrangements in the Middle East, as well as their spotty historical record of success, underscores the urgent need for an adequate understanding of the relative costs and benefits of participation in preferential trading arrangements and, more generally, of changes in domestic import regimes. This paper seeks to address this problem by providing estimates of the adjustment costs associated with two broad classes of hypothetical trade policy scenarios for Syria: participation in preferential trading arrangements, and changes in the domestic import regime. The authors find that the revenue consequences of the first scenario may be substantial. Their analysis of the second scenario suggests that the number of tariff bands can be reduced, while ensuring revenue neutrality, via the introduction of a value added tax of sufficient but reasonable size.

Common market --- Customs --- Debt Markets --- Economic Theory & Research --- Equilibrium --- Exports --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Free Trade --- Free trade area --- General equilibrium --- Import regime --- Import regimes --- Import taxes --- Imports --- International Economics and Trade --- International trade --- International Trade and Trade Rules --- International trading --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Tariff lines --- Tariff reform --- Trade adjustment --- Trade models --- Trade Policy --- Trade promotion --- Trade reform

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Earnings from farming in many developing countries have been depressed by a pro-urban bias in own-country policies as well as by governments of richer countries favoring their farmers with import barriers and subsidies. Both sets of policies, which reduce national and global economic welfare and contribute to global inequality and poverty, have been undergoing reform since the 1980s. Using the linkage model of the global economy and modifications to the pre-release of version 7 of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) protection database for 2004, this paper seeks to compare the effect of those reforms to date with those that would come from removing remaining agricultural and trade policies. Two sets of results are thus presented: one showing the effects of policy reforms between 1980-84 and 2004, the other showing what the removal of remaining distortions as of 2004 could be. Both sets of results indicate improvements in the real value of agricultural output and exports, the real returns to farm land and unskilled labor, and real net farm incomes in most developing country regions despite the adverse effect on the international terms of trade for some developing countries that are net food importers or are enjoying preferential access to agricultural markets of high-income countries. Landowners in those high-income countries still offering their farmers price supports could readily afford to compensate them from the benefits of removing remaining agricultural protectionism.

Agricultural Policy --- Agricultural Sector Economics --- Agricultural Trade --- Agriculture --- Bananas --- Beef --- Consumers --- Cotton --- Crops --- Dairy Products --- Developed Countries --- Developing Countries --- Food Industries --- Food Production --- Gdp --- Global Economy --- Grains --- Inequality --- Livestock --- Meat --- Political Economy --- Poverty Reduction --- Preferential Trade Agreements --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Savings --- Skilled Workers --- Sugar --- Trade Agreements --- Trade Liberalization --- Trade Policy --- Trade Preferences --- Trade Reform --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Wheat --- World Trade Organization

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The Doha round of multilateral trade negotiations stalled in 2008 owing in no small degree to a lack of agreement on the terms of substantially reducing trade-distorting support for agricultural products and to what extent this will be beneficial to developing countries. Nicaragua presents an interesting case in point, being one of the poorest economies in Latin America with still a relatively large agricultural sector and high degrees of rural poverty. In 2005, the country signed a free trade agreement with the United States. This chapter provides a quantitative analysis addressing that question. It does so using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for Nicaragua coupled with a micro-simulation methodology. The first section provides background information on trade reform policies and macroeconomic trends in Nicaragua, with special reference to the agricultural sector and rural poverty. The section that follows describes the main features of the CGE model and the micro-simulation methodology used to assess the impact on poverty and inequality. The author then lay out the model scenarios considered, which include liberalizations of agricultural and all merchandise goods trade by the rest of the world and by Nicaragua itself. That is followed by a summary analysis of results. This analysis includes tests for the sensitivity of the results with respect to assumptions regarding the responsiveness of trade to price liberalization, as identified through the relevant trade elasticities. The final section provides conclusions and possible policy implications.

Agriculture --- Capital Flows --- Civil War --- Commodity Prices --- Consumers --- Customs Procedures --- Demographic Change --- Developing Countries --- Development Policy --- Economic theory & Research --- Exporters --- Financial Institutions --- Foreign Direct Investment --- Gdp --- Gross Domestic Product --- Human Capital --- Inequality --- Living Standards --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Monopolies --- Per Capita Income --- Poverty Reduction --- Private Investment --- Productivity --- Safeguard Measures --- Savings --- Skilled Workers --- Total Factor Productivity --- Trade Barriers --- Trade Liberalization --- Trade Policy --- Trade Preferences --- Trade Protection --- Trade Reform --- Unemployment --- Unskilled Workers --- Wages --- World Development Indicators