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Long-run movements of real exchange rates are studied using a panel data set comprising 51 economies. The purchasing power parity hypothesis (PPP) is examined first using unit root tests. It is found that PPP does not hold for the full sample of countries, but it may hold for the advanced economies, as well as open and high-inflation economies. Using the recently developed mean group and pooled mean group estimators, the paper finds support for the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis in both advanced and developing economies; and for the influence of shifts in the terms of trade.
Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- International economics --- Macroeconomics --- Real exchange rates --- Purchasing power parity --- Exchange rates --- Terms of trade --- Nominal effective exchange rate --- International trade --- Prices --- Economic policy --- nternational cooperation --- Chile --- Nternational cooperation
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This paper studies growth determinants in 12 Latin American countries during the period 1950-85. In a simple growth accounting framework, the share of labor in income is found to be lower in the sample group than in developed countries, while factor productivity growth accounts for a larger proportion of growth in the fastest growing countries in the sample. Using panel data, macroeconomic stability is found to play, in addition to investment (physical and human), a crucial role in growth. To a lesser extent, growth is negatively correlated with government consumption and political instability. The terms of trade appear to have no significant effect on growth.
Exports and Imports --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Macroeconomics: Production --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Finance --- International economics --- Productivity --- Foreign direct investment --- Terms of trade --- Government consumption --- Prices --- Production --- Balance of payments --- International trade --- National accounts --- Industrial productivity --- Investments, Foreign --- Economic policy --- nternational cooperation --- Consumption --- Economics --- Costa Rica --- Nternational cooperation
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Chile’s average economic growth between 1990 and 1998 was above 7 percent per year, more than double than in previous decades, and higher than in any other Latin American country in the same period. This paper assesses empirically the main hypotheses suggested in the literature about the factors underlying this rapid growth: good economic policies, good luck in the external sector, and the country’s return to a democratic system of government. The statistical and quantitative results indicate that Chile’s rapid growth during the 1990s was due to good policies and the improved political situation.
Exports and Imports --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- Economywide Country Studies: Latin America --- Caribbean --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Institutions and the Macroeconomy --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- International economics --- Productivity --- Production growth --- Structural reforms --- Terms of trade --- Production --- Macrostructural analysis --- Prices --- International trade --- Industrial productivity --- Economic theory --- Economic policy --- nternational cooperation --- Chile --- Nternational cooperation
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This paper re-examines empirical exchange rate puzzles by focusing on three OECD economies (Australia, Canada, and New Zealand) where primary commodities constitute a significant share of their exports. For Australia and New Zealand especially, we find that the U.S. dollar price of their commodity exports (generally exogenous to these small economies) —has a strong and stable influence on their floating real rates, with the quantitative magnitude of the effects consistent with predictions of standard theoretical models. However, after controlling for commodity price shocks, there is still a PPP puzzle in the residual. Nevertheless, the results here are relevant to many developing country commodity exporters, as they liberalize their capital markets and move towards floating exchange rates.
Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Commodity Markets --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Monetary economics --- International economics --- Real exchange rates --- Commodity prices --- Exchange rates --- Currencies --- Terms of trade --- Prices --- Money --- International trade --- Economic policy --- nternational cooperation --- New Zealand --- Nternational cooperation
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We extend a small New Keynesian structural model used for monetary policy analysis to address a richer class of policy issues that arise in open economy analysis. We draw a distinction between absorption and domestic output, and as the difference between the two is effectively the current account, there is now an explicit accumulation or decumulation of foreign liabilities in response to various shocks affecting the system. Such stock equilibria can now have an impact back on to the flows in the domestic economy. We perform simulations using parameters calibrated to the Canadian economy and compare the differences in impulse responses from the original model. Advantages in a forecasting environment owing to the ability to impose explicit projections about imports and exports are also exposed.
Monetary policy --- Economic forecasting. --- Economics --- Forecasting --- Economic indicators --- Econometric models. --- Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Trade: General --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- International economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- External debt --- Imports --- Exports --- Real exchange rates --- Terms of trade --- Debts, External --- Economic policy --- nternational cooperation --- Canada --- Nternational cooperation
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Assessing a country's competitiveness routinely starts with an analysis of the real exchange rate. However, in low-income countries, empirical analysis of the real exchange rate is often subject to important limitations that seriously weaken the results. This paper summarizes the methodologies used to assess real exchange rate misalignments and discusses the range of obstacles common to low-income countries. Recognizing the importance of using a wide range of indicators for assessing competitiveness in low-income countries, the paper discusses alternative competitive measures and then proposes a template of indicators to allow for a systematic assessment of competitiveness in low-income countries. The template is then used to rank countries according to their competitiveness performance in 2006.
Exports and Imports --- Finance: General --- Foreign Exchange --- Institutions and Growth --- Comparative Studies of Countries --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Trade: General --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Finance --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- International economics --- Competition --- Real exchange rates --- Exports --- Exchange rates --- Terms of trade --- Financial markets --- International trade --- Economic policy --- nternational cooperation --- Angola --- Foreign exchange rates --- Econometric models. --- Developing countries --- Economic conditions --- Nternational cooperation
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The stance of fiscal policy in CEMAC and WAEMU is strongly influenced by fiscal effort in the previous period. This persistence underscores the risks of a procyclical fiscal policy stance, given these countries' high degree of dependence on primary commodities and exposure to terms of trade shocks. This paper finds that the coefficient of the lagged debt stock was significant and positive, consistent with the theory that higher levels of debt warrant greater fiscal effort. Various measures of economic performance, as captured by economic growth and per capita GDP, openness, and the terms of trade were also found to be important factors in explaining fiscal performance. As fiscal performance seems to be strongly affected by both real GDP growth and terms of trade fluctuations, there appears to be a need to develop supplementary fiscal-related criteria that take into account the influence of output and the terms of trade.
Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Fiscal Policy --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Financial Aspects of Economic Integration --- International economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Fiscal stance --- Terms of trade --- Public debt --- Fiscal policy --- Monetary unions --- Economic policy --- nternational cooperation --- Debts, Public --- Central African Republic --- Monetary policy --- Franc, CFA --- Africa, French-speaking --- Economic policy. --- Nternational cooperation
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This paper analytically explores and empirically tests a number of hypotheses to explain the rapid growth in transition economies. The paper finds that growth in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) has been higher because of the recovery of lost output, progress in macroeconomic stabilization and market reforms, and favorable external conditions. Some of these factors are unlikely to continue for a very long time. The challenge is to improve the investment climate in the non-primary sectors, which will require broadening the scope of macroeconomic reform into a second generation of reforms encompassing structural and institutional areas.
Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- Remittances --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Capacity --- International economics --- Terms of trade --- Government consumption --- Total factor productivity --- Outward remittances --- International finance --- Economic policy --- nternational cooperation --- Consumption --- Economics --- Industrial productivity --- Emigrant remittances --- Russian Federation --- Economic development --- Econometric models. --- Nternational cooperation
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A three-good, stochastic intertemporal equilibrium model of a small open economy is used to examine the link between terms of trade and business cycles. Equilibrium co-movements of model economies representing industrial and developing countries are computed and compared with the stylized facts of 30 countries. The results show that terms-of-trade shocks account for half of observed output variability and that the model mimics the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect and produces large deviations from purchasing power parity. The elasticity of substitution between tradable and nontradable goods and the persistence of the shocks play a key role in producing these results.
Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- International economics --- Economic growth --- Terms of trade --- Consumption --- Trade balance --- Business cycles --- Import prices --- International trade --- National accounts --- Prices --- Economic policy --- nternational cooperation --- Economics --- Balance of trade --- Imports --- United States --- Nternational cooperation
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This paper reexamines the issue of the existence of threshold effects in the relationship between inflation and growth, using new econometric techniques that provide appropriate procedures for estimation and inference. The threshold level of inflation above which inflation significantly slows growth is estimated at 1–3 percent for industrial countries and 7–11 percent for developing countries. The negative and significant relationship between inflation and growth, for inflation rates above the threshold level, is quite robust with respect to the estimation method, perturbations in the location of the threshold level, the exclusion of high-inflation observations, data frequency, and alternative specifications.
Econometrics --- Exports and Imports --- Inflation --- Demography --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General --- Truncated and Censored Models --- Switching Regression Models --- Threshold Regression Models --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts --- Macroeconomics --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- International economics --- Population & migration geography --- Threshold analysis --- Terms of trade --- Hyperinflation --- Population growth --- Prices --- Economic policy --- nternational cooperation --- Population --- Nternational cooperation