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The finances of the Czech pension system have deteriorated markedly in recent years and the aging population will add further strains in the future. The system is also burdened by significant distortions and disincentive effects. This paper assesses the current pay-as-you-go (PAYG) system, including its long-run viability, and discusses reform options. It concludes that alterations to the basic PAYG parameters can go a long way toward addressing the problems, although more systemic changes—such as pre-funding, strengthening the link between contributions and benefits, and diverting part of the pension contributions to a mandatory, private pension savings pillar—could also help.
Labor --- Public Finance --- Demography --- Fiscal Policy --- Social Security and Public Pensions --- Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits --- Private Pensions --- Economics of the Elderly --- Economics of the Handicapped --- Non-labor Market Discrimination --- Retirement --- Retirement Policies --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Pensions --- Labour --- income economics --- Population & demography --- Pension spending --- Aging --- Wages --- Population aging --- Czech Republic --- Income economics
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Austria faces significant population aging. This will increase public spending on pensions, health care, and long-term care, while tax and social security revenues will fall. This paper analyzes the fiscal burden facing Austria due to aging and the policy steps necessary to address it. The paper finds that Austria is not well prepared to meet the fiscal burden of aging and that fiscal sustainability is threatened, even under fairly optimistic assumptions about the effects of recent pension and labor market reforms. Consequently, to ensure long-term sustainability, pension reform must go further and other saving measures might also be necessary.
Labor --- Public Finance --- Demography --- Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits --- Private Pensions --- Social Security and Public Pensions --- Economics of the Elderly --- Economics of the Handicapped --- Non-labor Market Discrimination --- Retirement --- Retirement Policies --- National Government Expenditures and Health --- Pensions --- Population & demography --- Labour --- income economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Pension spending --- Aging --- Health care spending --- Expenditure --- Population and demographics --- Population aging --- Expenditures, Public --- Austria --- Income economics
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This paper investigates the long-run pattern of private saving in Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. These countries have not only maintained saving levels that are currently among the highest in the world but have also experienced a sustained increase in their rate of private saving over the past twenty years. Using a cointegration approach, this paper empirically examines the economic determinants underlying the saving trends in this group and the extent to which these countries share a common experience with respect to the factors accounting for their strong saving performance. The findings suggest that demographic shifts have been an important factor underlying regional saving trends with a similar long-run impact in each country, except for Indonesia where the effects of demographics have been even more pronounced.
Macroeconomics --- Demography --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Social Security and Public Pensions --- Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Demographic Economics: General --- Economics of the Elderly --- Economics of the Handicapped --- Non-labor Market Discrimination --- Population & demography --- Private savings --- Disposable income --- Income --- Population and demographics --- Aging --- National accounts --- Saving and investment --- National income --- Population --- Population aging --- Singapore
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In many countries of the former Soviet Union, pensioners form a large and vulnerable group of the population, with pensions fixed in nominal terms. Attempts to “protect” this group have included a revaluation of benefits for retirees and the introduction of indexation arrangements based on recent wage and price growth. In this paper, lagged indexation arrangements are shown to have large destabilizing effects that can potentially jeopardize the macroeconomic adjustment effort, particularly as inflation begins to decelerate. Some long-term problems relating to the aging of the population and associated policies are also discussed. Illustrative examples from Belarus are presented.
Inflation --- Labor --- Public Finance --- Demography --- Social Security and Public Pensions --- Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits --- Private Pensions --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Economics of the Elderly --- Economics of the Handicapped --- Non-labor Market Discrimination --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Pensions --- Labour --- income economics --- Population & demography --- Macroeconomics --- Pension spending --- Wages --- Aging --- Expenditure --- Population and demographics --- Prices --- Population aging --- Belarus, Republic of --- Income economics
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Despite their increasing fiscal burden, the public pension systems of BRO countries are failing to provide adequate social protection. Although there is a broad consensus about the need for pension reforms, BRO countries are debating whether to embark on systemic reforms or whether to correct the distortions in their pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension systems. The paper reviews the measures taken by BRO countries during the transition period to address their pension problems and examines the options for further reform. It makes a strong case for a gradual reform approach aimed at establishing a multi-pillar system over the long run, but initially focused on implementation of “high-quality” reforms of the PAYG system.
Labor --- Public Finance --- Demography --- Social Security and Public Pensions --- Comparative Studies of Countries --- Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits --- Private Pensions --- Economics of the Elderly --- Economics of the Handicapped --- Non-labor Market Discrimination --- Retirement --- Retirement Policies --- Pensions --- Population & demography --- Labour --- income economics --- Pension spending --- Aging --- Pension reform --- Expenditure --- Population and demographics --- Population aging --- Kazakhstan, Republic of --- Income economics
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This paper reviews developments in pension systems in 11 transition economies during the 1990s, highlighting the forces behind their rapid weakening. It focuses on the challenges these systems face—including those arising from demographic factors—and discusses why most transition countries are considering shifting, or have already shifted, from traditional defined-benefit pay-as-you-go systems to defined-contribution fully funded systems. Finally, the paper looks at the main options that arise in introducing fully funded components, including the relative mix between funding and pay-as-you-go, and the speed of the transition toward the new system.
Labor --- Public Finance --- Demography --- Social Security and Public Pensions --- Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits --- Private Pensions --- Economics of the Elderly --- Economics of the Handicapped --- Non-labor Market Discrimination --- Retirement --- Retirement Policies --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Pensions --- Labour --- income economics --- Population & demography --- Pension spending --- Aging --- Wages --- Expenditure --- Population and demographics --- Population aging --- Poland, Republic of --- Income economics
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Migrants, being relatively low earners, are net beneficiaries of the welfare state. However, this paper uses a dynamic model to show that because of migrants’ positive influence on the pension system, which is an important pillar of any welfare state, migration could be beneficial to all income (high and low) and age (old and young) groups.
Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Demography --- Emigration and Immigration --- International Migration --- Social Security and Public Pensions --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Labor Economics: General --- Economics of the Elderly --- Economics of the Handicapped --- Non-labor Market Discrimination --- Pensions --- Migration, immigration & emigration --- Labour --- income economics --- Population & demography --- Pension spending --- Migration --- Labor supply --- Aging --- Emigration and immigration --- Labor market --- Labor economics --- Population aging --- Income economics
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The paper analyzes the development of government social expenditure during the economic stabilization period, with specific reference to the changing needs for such expenditure arising from the change in Israel’s demographic structure. The results reveal a real cut in direct services. The implicit strategy applied a mere restraint, for some two to three years, with real erosion in services arising from the growth in the size of beneficiary groups. This strategy proved attainable, even though it took more time than an alternative shock-like strategy that would have had little, if any, chance of being implemented. A partial application to six Latin American countries shows that even though the increase of the elderly dependency ratio is more than offset by the declining child-dependency ratio, there will be an overall increase in dependency-related expenditure.
Aging --- Demographic Economics: General --- Demography --- Economics of the Elderly --- Economics of the Handicapped --- Education --- Education: General --- Expenditure --- Expenditures, Public --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Non-labor Market Discrimination --- Population & demography --- Population aging --- Population and demographics --- Population --- Public finance & taxation --- Public Finance --- Total expenditures --- Israel
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Demographic pressures will materialize in many economies over the next few decades. We examine the macroeconomic impact of alternative fiscal adjustment and structural reform strategies to address these global aging pressures using the IMF's Global Fiscal Model (GFM). The results suggest substantial spillover effects of aging through international financial channels. To maintain sustainability, fiscal adjustment needs to be broad-based, while avoiding increases in direct taxes. There are substantial benefits from fiscal cooperation, while negative growth effects can be offset by complementary structural reforms in product and labor markets with the benefits accruing early and to all incomegroups.
Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Demography --- Fiscal Policy --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Economics of the Elderly --- Economics of the Handicapped --- Non-labor Market Discrimination --- Labour --- income economics --- Population & demography --- Fiscal consolidation --- Labor supply --- Consumption --- Aging --- Fiscal policy --- Labor market --- Economics --- Population aging --- Germany --- Capital movements --- Population --- Saving and investment --- Structural adjustment (Economic policy) --- Economic aspects --- Econometric models. --- Income economics
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The Selected Issues paper examines policy challenges for inflation targeting in Hungary. It highlights that inflation targeting has been met with much initial success. A well-defined policy framework helped guide inflation expectations and provided an initial impetus toward resuming disinflation. The paper also focuses on the impact of aging on the public pension system. It describes the background underlying Hungary’s current pension system, and provides a review of some of the recent work assessing Hungary’s pension system viability.
Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Labor --- Public Finance --- Demography --- Social Security and Public Pensions --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits --- Private Pensions --- Economics of the Elderly --- Economics of the Handicapped --- Non-labor Market Discrimination --- Pensions --- Macroeconomics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Labour --- income economics --- Population & demography --- Pension spending --- Aging --- Inflation targeting --- Expenditure --- Population and demographics --- Monetary policy --- Prices --- Population aging --- Hungary --- Income economics