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The World Economic Outlook, published twice a year in English, French, Spanish, and Arabic, presents IMF staff economists' analyses of global economic developments during the near and medium term. Chapters give an overview of the world economy; consider issues affecting industrial countries, developing countries, and economies in transition to market; and address topics of pressing current interest. Annexes, boxes, charts, and an extensive statistical appendix augment the text.

Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Real Estate --- Demography --- Housing Supply and Markets --- Economics of the Elderly --- Economics of the Handicapped --- Non-labor Market Discrimination --- Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts --- Demographic Economics: General --- Population & demography --- Property & real estate --- International economics --- Finance --- Housing prices --- Aging --- Population and demographics --- Emerging and frontier financial markets --- Demographic change --- Housing --- Prices --- Population aging --- Population --- Foreign exchange --- United States

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The view that international migration has no impact on the size of world population is a sensible one. But the author argues, migration from developing to more industrial countries during the past decades may have resulted in a smaller world population than the one which would have been attained had no international migration taken place for two reasons: most of recent migration has been from high to low birth-rate countries, and migrants typically adopt and send back to their home countries models and ideas that prevail in host countries. Thus, migrants are potential agents of the diffusion of demographic modernity, that is, the reduction of birth rates among nonmigrant communities left behind in origin countries. This hypothesis is tested with data from Morocco and Turkey where most emigrants are bound for the West, and Egypt where they are bound for the Gulf. The demographic differentials encountered through migration in these three countries offer contrasted situations-host countries are either more (the West) or less (the Gulf) advanced in their demographic transition than the home country. Assuming migration changes the course of demographic transition in origin countries, the author posits that it should work in two opposite directions-speeding it up in Morocco and Turkey and slowing it down in Egypt. Empirical evidence confirms this hypothesis. Time series of birth rates and migrant remittances (reflecting the intensity of the relationship kept by emigrants with their home country) are strongly correlated with each other. Correlation is negative for Morocco and Turkey, and positive for Egypt. This suggests that Moroccan and Turkish emigration to Europe has been accompanied by a fundamental change of attitudes regarding marriage and birth, while Egyptian migration to the Gulf has not brought home innovative attitudes in this domain, but rather material resources for the achievement of traditional family goals. Other data suggest that emigration has fostered education in Morocco and Turkey but not in Egypt. And as has been found in the literature, education is the single most important determinant of demographic transition among nonmigrant populations in migrants' regions of origin. Two broader conclusions are drawn. First, the acceleration of the demographic transition in Morocco and Turkey is correlated with migration to Europe, a region where low birth-rates is the dominant pattern. This suggests that international migration may have produced a global demographic benefit under the form of a relaxation of demographic pressures for the world as a whole. Second, if it turns out that emigrants are conveyors of new ideas in matters related with family and education, then the same may apply to a wider range of civil behavior.

Birth Rates --- Country of Origin --- Demographic Change --- Demographic Pressures --- Demographic Transition --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Home Countries --- Host Countries --- International Migrants --- International Migration --- Marriage --- Migrant --- Migrants --- Overpopulation --- Policy --- Policy Research --- Policy Research Working Paper --- Population Movements --- Population Policies --- Progress --- Remittances --- World Population

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Les Perspectives de l'économie mondiale (PEM), publiées deux fois l'an en anglais, français, espagnol et arabe, présentent des analyses de l'évolution économique mondiale à court et moyen termes, préparées par les principaux économistes du FMI. Les divers chapitres donnent un tour d'horizon de l'économie mondiale, évoquent des questions qui touchent les pays industrialisés, les pays en développement, et ceux en transition vers une économie de marché, et abordent des thèmes d'actualité. Des annexes, des encadrés, des graphiques et un appendice statistique détaillé complètent le texte.

339.97 --- 339.97 Wereldeconomie. Club van Rome. Wereldplannen. Internationale plannen --- Wereldeconomie. Club van Rome. Wereldplannen. Internationale plannen --- Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Real Estate --- Demography --- Housing Supply and Markets --- Economics of the Elderly --- Economics of the Handicapped --- Non-labor Market Discrimination --- Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts --- Demographic Economics: General --- Population & demography --- Property & real estate --- International economics --- Finance --- Housing prices --- Aging --- Population and demographics --- Emerging and frontier financial markets --- Demographic change --- Housing --- Prices --- Population aging --- Population --- Foreign exchange --- United States

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This paper calculates the levels of optimal national saving, investment, and the current account balance for five Asian economies—Hong Kong SAR, Japan, Singapore, Malaysia, and the Philippines—for the period 1997–2050 using a simulation approach. These calculations show the sensitivity of results to changing demographic structures on employment participation, labor productivity; and consumption demands. In particular, the simulations reveal that variations in prospective demographic change across economies cause considerable variations in the patterns of optimal national saving rates.

Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- Demography --- General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts --- Planning Models --- Planning Policy --- Economics of the Elderly --- Economics of the Handicapped --- Non-labor Market Discrimination --- Human Capital --- Skills --- Occupational Choice --- Labor Productivity --- Demographic Economics: General --- Population & demography --- Consumption --- Aging --- Labor productivity --- Demographic change --- Population and demographics --- National accounts --- Production --- Economics --- Population aging --- Demographic transition --- Population --- Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China

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This paper calibrates the production functions of 176 countries to fit 2003 data and examines the capital flows that emerge, when labor forces change according to the 2007 UN population projections. It finds that demographic factors are no help in correcting today's global imbalances; that Japan's capital outflows have as much to do with population aging as with the yen carry-trade; and that China is key to understanding Asia's demographic impact on the world. It also finds that Asia offers the greatest arbitrage opportunities worldwide during the demographic transition and has the greatest potential for regional financial integration among world regions. Moreover, the demographic transition is unlikely to result in an asset price meltdown and could even raise world interest rates under perfect capital mobility.

Exports and Imports --- Labor --- Demography --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts --- Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure --- Economics of the Elderly --- Economics of the Handicapped --- Non-labor Market Discrimination --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- International economics --- Population & demography --- Labour --- income economics --- Capital flows --- Demographic change --- Labor force --- Aging --- Capital account --- Capital movements --- Demographic transition --- Labor market --- Population aging --- Balance of payments --- Japan --- Income economics