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Although financial theory suggests a positive relationship between default risk and equity returns, recent empirical papers find anomalously low returns for stocks with high probabilities of default. The authors show that returns to distressed stocks previously documented are really an amalgamation of anomalies associated with three stock characteristics - leverage, volatility and profitability. In this paper they use a market based measure - corporate credit spreads - to proxy for default risk. Unlike previously used measures that proxy for a firm's real-world probability of default, credit spreads proxy for a risk-adjusted (or a risk-neutral) probability of default and thereby explicitly account for the systematic component of distress risk. The authors show that credit spreads predict corporate defaults better than previously used measures, such as, bond ratings, accounting variables and structural model parameters. They do not find default risk to be significantly priced in the cross-section of equity returns. There is also no evidence of firms with high default risk delivering anomalously low returns.

Accounting --- Bankruptcy --- Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress --- Bond ratings --- Bond Spread --- Capital Asset Pricing --- Corporate Bond --- Corporate bonds --- Corporate defaults --- Credit rating --- Credit risk --- Credit spread --- Credit spreads --- Debt --- Debt Markets --- Default Risk --- Deposit Insurance --- Economic Theory & Research --- Equity returns --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Fixed Income --- Human capital --- International Bank --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Mutual Funds --- Probability of default --- Stocks

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High credit growth in Emerging Europe, generally considered a sign of catching-up with the "old" Europe, has begun receiving considerable attention among investors and policymakers alike. Given heightened global risks and the demands under the European Union accession process, the need to better understand this high credit growth's drivers, riskiness, and the possible macroeconomic and financial stability consequences is strong. The authors adopt a holistic approach in reviewing the rapid credit growth experienced in the region, examining macroeconomic, financial sector, corporate sector, and asset market consequences and possible vulnerabilities. They consider three possible scenarios-a catching-up with older European countries, a soft landing as experienced by Portugal in the early 2000s, and a hard landing as experienced by Asia in 1997.

Access to Finance --- Banking Sector --- Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress --- Banks and Banking Reform --- Credit Growth --- Credit Rating --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Debt Markets --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial contagion --- Financial crises --- Financial crisis --- Financial stability --- International Bank --- International financial institutions --- Market economy

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Although financial theory suggests a positive relationship between default risk and equity returns, recent empirical papers find anomalously low returns for stocks with high probabilities of default. The authors show that returns to distressed stocks previously documented are really an amalgamation of anomalies associated with three stock characteristics - leverage, volatility and profitability. In this paper they use a market based measure - corporate credit spreads - to proxy for default risk. Unlike previously used measures that proxy for a firm's real-world probability of default, credit spreads proxy for a risk-adjusted (or a risk-neutral) probability of default and thereby explicitly account for the systematic component of distress risk. The authors show that credit spreads predict corporate defaults better than previously used measures, such as, bond ratings, accounting variables and structural model parameters. They do not find default risk to be significantly priced in the cross-section of equity returns. There is also no evidence of firms with high default risk delivering anomalously low returns.

Accounting --- Bankruptcy --- Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress --- Bond ratings --- Bond Spread --- Capital Asset Pricing --- Corporate Bond --- Corporate bonds --- Corporate defaults --- Credit rating --- Credit risk --- Credit spread --- Credit spreads --- Debt --- Debt Markets --- Default Risk --- Deposit Insurance --- Economic Theory & Research --- Equity returns --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Fixed Income --- Human capital --- International Bank --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Mutual Funds --- Probability of default --- Stocks

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Los jóvenes, el grupo más afectado por la desaceleración económica mundial, se están movilizando y exigen un cambio. En esta edición de F&D “Los jóvenes reclaman cambio”, se analiza la necesidad de abordar con urgencia los desafíos a los que se enfrentan los jóvenes y crear oportunidades para ellos. El profesor de Harvard David Bloom evalúa el alcance del problema y subraya la importancia de escuchar a los jóvenes en “Futuro incierto”. En “Sacar buena nota " se analiza cómo impartir a los jóvenes de hoy en día los conocimientos que necesitan para conseguir empleo. La Subdirectora Gerente del FMI, Nemat Shafik, comparte su opinión sobre las consecuencias económicas y sociales del desempleo juvenil en “Hablando claro”. En “Generación marcada” se analiza el efecto de la crisis económica mundial en los jóvenes trabajadores de las economías avanzadas, y en “Hablan los jóvenes” conversamos directamente con varios jóvenes de todo el mundo. Se analizan la regulación del sistema financiero y el impulso al PIB mediante el empoderamiento de las mujeres. En esta revista también examinamos el ascenso del renmimbi, analizamos el papel de las agencias de calificación crediticia, debatimos cómo potenciar el papel de la mujer y presentamos los principios básicos de la regulación macroprudencial, que es cada vez más importante para la estabilidad financiera. En “Gente del mundo de la economía”, trazamos una semblanza de Fred Bergsten, “Un mundialista estadounidense”. En “Vuelta a lo esencial” estudiamos el papel multidimensional de los bancos en nuestros sistemas financieros.

International finance. --- Finance --- Economic assistance --- International monetary system --- International money --- International economic relations --- Finance: General --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Education: General --- Economics of Gender --- Non-labor Discrimination --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Labour --- income economics --- Education --- Monetary economics --- Gender studies --- women & girls --- Credit rating agencies --- Women --- Unemployment --- Credit ratings --- Money --- United States --- Income economics --- Women & girls

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Young people, hardest hit by the global economic downturn, are speaking out and demanding change. F&D looks at the need to urgently address the challenges facing youth and create opportunities for them. Harvard professor David Bloom lays out the scope of the problem and emphasizes the importance of listening to young people in "Youth in the Balance." "Making the Grade" looks at how to teach today's young people what they need to get jobs. IMF Deputy Managing Director, Nemat Shafik shares her take on the social and economic consequences of youth unemployment in our "Straight Talk" column. "Scarred Generation" looks at the effects the global economic crisis had on young workers in advanced economies, and we hear directly from young people across the globe in "Voices of Youth." Renminbi's rise, financial system regulation, and boosting GDP by empowering women. Also in the magazine, we examine the rise of the Chinese currency, look at the role of the credit rating agencies, discuss how to boost the empowerment of women, and present our primer on macroprudential regulation, seen as increasingly important to financial stability. People in economics - C. Fred Bergsten, American Globalist Back to basics - The multi-dimensional role of banks in our financial systems.

Finance: General --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Education: General --- Economics of Gender --- Non-labor Discrimination --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Finance --- Labour --- income economics --- Education --- Monetary economics --- Gender studies --- women & girls --- Credit rating agencies --- Women --- Unemployment --- Credit ratings --- Money --- United States --- Income economics --- Women & girls