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This report sheds light on the interlocked long-term territorial development challenges and the recently realized systemic risks affecting the Lake Chad region. It summarizes the findings of seven technical papers, each investigating different aspects of the interlinked challenges faced by the region. These studies are accompanied by complementary research on labor market and geospatial socioeconomic trends, as well as by a review of the thin literature on economic development across the region. In addition to presenting the main results of the technical papers, the report positions the findings in the broader context of an analytical framework depicting the feedback mechanisms between the region's territorial development gaps and the self-reinforcing link to shocks, namely, violent conflict and climate change. This analytical framework is presented in Section 1.2. The rest of the report is structured as follows. Section 1.3 describes the main social and economic trajectories in the region. It reviews long-term demographic trends, suggesting. Section 1.4 argues that the low-growth, high-poverty equilibrium observed in the region is closely linked to the region's economic geography. Section 1.5 discusses how the impact of climatic variation and violent conflict experienced in the region interlink with and exacerbate the territorial development challenges. Section 1.6 presents policy directions structured around four crosscutting themes: infrastructure, trade, governance, and natural resource management. The crosscutting nature of these themes encourages the exploration of potential synergies across challenge areas. The discussion in the section aims to inform policy-making efforts to strengthen territorial development and mitigate the impacts of conflict and climate change. Such endeavors can increase the likelihood of breaking free from the self-reinforcing negative mechanisms and boost the potential return of the region to a path of stability and inclusive economic development.
Access To Markets --- Agriculture --- Climate Change --- Climate Change Impacts --- Conflict and Development --- Economic Development --- Environment --- Human Capital --- Labor Market --- Natural Resources Management --- Poverty Reduction --- Trade Barriers --- Trade Facilitation --- Urbanization
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This paper proposes monetary poverty and inequality estimates for Kinshasa using a new Kinshasa household survey implemented in 2018. Given the obsolescence of the sampling frame, the survey was sampled using satellite imagery. However, the collection of data in the field was affected by sampling errors that are likely to compromise the representativeness of the sample. After addressing these sampling issues and dealing with some comparability issues with the 2012 survey, the paper shows that poverty and inequality increased significantly during 2012-18 in Kinshasa. Poverty has increased in the city by 12 percentage points, from 53 to 65 percent, partly due to the loss of purchasing power following the sharp depreciation in 2017. Other explanatory factors include demographic factors, human capital, and spatial factors. The deterioration in well-being also appears to have been exacerbated by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic through decline in labor and nonlabor income and disruptions in goods and services markets and public services.
Comparability Issues --- Coronavirus --- COVID-19 --- Inequality --- Poverty Lines --- Poverty Map --- Poverty Measurement --- Poverty Reduction --- Propensity Score --- Robustness Analysis --- Sampling Errors --- Urban Poverty
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This paper examines the labor market and jobs in urban Kinshasa, by drawing on a recently collected household survey and other data sets. It particularly focuses on labor supply and employment patterns, job characteristics, and their spatial nexus. The analysis first shows that female and young workers are more likely to experience unemployment and underemployment than other workers in Kinshasa. Second, the availability of good quality jobs is still limited in Kinshasa. Third, in addition to the scarcity of good jobs, which are concentrated in the city core, poor accessibility due to the limited connective infrastructure and transport system further reduces job opportunities for people living in the outskirts.
Accessibility --- Demographics --- Employment and Unemployment --- Jobs --- Labor Market --- Social Protections and Labor --- Spatial Analysis --- Unemployment --- Urban Poverty
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This paper uses data from Sri Lanka and Tanzania to evaluate the benefits of combining household surveys with geographically comprehensive geospatial indicators to generate small area estimates of non-monetary poverty. The preferred estimates are generated by utilizing subarea-level geospatial indicators in a household-level empirical best predictor mixed model with a normalized welfare measure. Mean squared errors are estimated using a parametric bootstrap procedure. The resulting estimates are highly correlated with non-monetary poverty calculated from the full census in both countries, and the gain in precision is comparable to increasing the size of the sample by a factor of three in Sri Lanka and five in Tanzania. The empirical best predictor model moderately underestimates uncertainty, but coverage rates are similar to standard survey-based estimates that assume independent outcomes across clusters. A variety of checks, including adding noise to the welfare measure and model-based and design-based simulations, confirm that the main results are robust. The results demonstrate that combining household survey data with subarea-level geospatial indicators can greatly increase the precision of survey estimates of non-monetary poverty at comparatively low cost.
Geospatial Analysis --- Inequality --- Living Standards --- Poverty Assessment --- Poverty Lines --- Poverty Measurement --- Poverty Monitoring and Analysis --- Poverty Rate --- Poverty Reduction --- Remote Sensing --- Small Area Estimate
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This paper estimates the impacts of mobile broadband coverage on household consumption and poverty in Nigeria, the largest economy and mobile broadband market in Africa. The analysis exploits a unique dataset that integrates three waves of a nationally representative longitudinal household survey on living standards with information from Nigerian mobile operators on the deployment of mobile broadband (3G and 4G) coverage between 2010 and 2016. The estimates show that mobile broadband coverage had large and positive impacts on household consumption levels which increased over time, although at a decreasing rate. Mobile broadband coverage also reduces the proportion of households below the poverty line, driven by higher food and non-food consumption in rural households. These effects are mainly due to an increase in labor force participation and employment, particularly among women.
Digital Divide --- Employment --- Female Labor Force Participation --- Gender and Development --- Gender and Economics --- Gender Informatics --- Household Consumption --- ICT Economics --- Inequality --- Labor Force Participation --- Mobile Broadband --- Poverty --- Poverty Line --- Welfare Impact
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