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Has monetary policy in advanced economies been less effective since the global financial crisis because of deteriorating household balance sheets? This paper examines the question using household data from the United States. It compares the responsiveness of household consumption to monetary policy shocks in the pre- and post-crisis periods, relating changes in monetary transmission to changes in household indebtedness and liquidity. The results show that the responsiveness of household consumption has diminished since the crisis. However, household balance sheets are not the culprit. Households with higher debt levels and lower shares of liquid assets are the most responsive to monetary policy, and the share of these households in the population grew. Other factors, such as economic uncertainty, appear to have played a bigger role in the decline of households’ responsiveness to monetary policy.
Monetary policy --- Econometric models. --- Exports and Imports --- Finance: General --- Macroeconomics --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Monetary Policy --- Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics: Household Analysis: General --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Portfolio Choice --- Investment Decisions --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- International economics --- Finance --- Consumption --- Household consumption --- Debt burden --- Liquidity --- Income --- National accounts --- External debt --- Asset and liability management --- Economics --- Debts, External --- United States
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Las políticas monetarias acomodaticias de las economías avanzadas han estimulado la entrada de capitales en los mercados emergentes desde la crisis financiera internacional. En un episodio que comenzó en mayo de 2013, cuando la Reserva Federal mencionó públicamente los planes de repliegue gradual de las políticas monetarias no convencionales, esos mercados emergentes experimentaron turbulencia financiera, en un momento en que su actividad económica interna se había enfriado. Este estudio examina sus experiencias y políticas de respuesta, y extrae lecciones generales. En los mercados emergentes, la solidez de los fundamentos macroeconómicos es importante, y la adopción sin dilación de medidas decisivas para fortalecer las políticas macroeconómicas y reducir las vulnerabilidades ayuda a suavizar las reacciones de los mercados a los shocks externos. En las economías avanzadas, la comunicación clara y eficaz sobre el retiro de la política monetaria no convencional puede contribuir a alejar el riesgo de volatilidad excesiva en los mercados, lo cual efectivamente ocurrió. Y en la comunidad internacional, la promoción de la cooperación internacional, que debe incluir una sólida red mundial de seguridad financiera, ofrece a los mercados emergentes una protección eficaz ante la volatilidad excesiva.
Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Investments: Bonds --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Money and Interest Rates: General --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Policy Objectives --- Policy Designs and Consistency --- Policy Coordination --- Fiscal Policy --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Monetary Policy --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- International economics --- Investment & securities --- Monetary economics --- Capital flows --- Exchange rates --- Bond yields --- Unconventional monetary policies --- Foreign exchange intervention --- Capital movements --- Bonds --- Monetary policy --- United States
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The proposed SDN would take stock of the current debate on the shape that monetary policy should take after the crisis. It revisits the pros and cons of expanding the objectives of monetary policy, the merits of turning unconventional policies into conventional ones, how to make monetary policy frameworks more resilient to the risk of being constrained by the zero-lower bound going forward, and the institutional challenges to preserve central bank independence with regards to monetary policy, while allowing adequate government oversight over central banks’ new responsibilities. It will draw policy conclusions where consensus has been reached, and highlight the areas where more work is needed to get more granular policy advice.
Banks and Banking --- Finance: General --- Inflation --- Policy Objectives --- Policy Designs and Consistency --- Policy Coordination --- International Policy Coordination and Transmission --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Price Level --- Deflation --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- Banking --- Finance --- Macroeconomics --- Financial sector stability --- Zero lower bound --- Central bank policy rate --- Banks and banking --- Interest rates --- Prices --- Financial services industry --- United States
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Accommodative monetary policies in advanced economies have spurred increased capital inflows into emerging markets since the global financial crisis. Starting in May 2013, when the Federal Reserve publicly discussed its plans for tapering unconventional monetary policies, these emerging markets have experienced financial turbulence at the same that their domestic economic activity has slowed. This paper examines their experiences and policy responses and draws broad policy lessons. For emerging markets, good macroeconomic fundamentals matter, and early and decisive measures to strengthen macroeconomic policies and reduce vulnerabilities help dampen market reactions to external shocks. For advanced economies, clear and effective communication about the exit from unconventional monetary policy can and did help later to reduce the risk of excessive market volatility. And for the global community, enhanced global cooperation, including a strong global financial safety net, offers emerging markets effective protection against excessive volatility.
Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Investments: Bonds --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Money and Interest Rates: General --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Policy Objectives --- Policy Designs and Consistency --- Policy Coordination --- Fiscal Policy --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Monetary Policy --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- International economics --- Investment & securities --- Monetary economics --- Capital flows --- Exchange rates --- Bond yields --- Unconventional monetary policies --- Foreign exchange intervention --- Balance of payments --- Financial institutions --- Monetary policy --- Capital movements --- Bonds --- United States
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The proposed SDN would take stock of the current debate on the shape that monetary policy should take after the crisis. It revisits the pros and cons of expanding the objectives of monetary policy, the merits of turning unconventional policies into conventional ones, how to make monetary policy frameworks more resilient to the risk of being constrained by the zero-lower bound going forward, and the institutional challenges to preserve central bank independence with regards to monetary policy, while allowing adequate government oversight over central banks’ new responsibilities. It will draw policy conclusions where consensus has been reached, and highlight the areas where more work is needed to get more granular policy advice.
Banks and Banking --- Finance: General --- Inflation --- Policy Objectives --- Policy Designs and Consistency --- Policy Coordination --- International Policy Coordination and Transmission --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Price Level --- Deflation --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- Banking --- Finance --- Macroeconomics --- Financial sector stability --- Zero lower bound --- Central bank policy rate --- Banks and banking --- Interest rates --- Prices --- Financial services industry --- United States
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A new wave of technological innovations, often called “fintech,” is accelerating change in the financial sector. What impact might fintech have on financial services, and how should regulation respond? This paper sets out an economic framework for thinking through the channels by which fintech might provide solutions that respond to consumer needs for trust, security, privacy, and better services, change the competitive landscape, and affect regulation. It combines a broad discussion of trends across financial services with a focus on cross-border payments and especially the impact of distributed ledger technology. Overall, the paper finds that boundaries among different types of service providers are blurring; barriers to entry are changing; and improvements in cross-border payments are likely. It argues that regulatory authorities need to balance carefully efficiency and stability trade-offs in the face of rapid changes, and ensure that trust is maintained in an evolving financial system. It also highlights the importance of international cooperation.
Blockchain and DLT --- Blockchains --- Computer applications in industry & technology --- Databases --- Diffusion Processes --- Distributed ledgers --- Emerging technologies --- Financial Economics: General --- Financial Institutions and Services: General --- Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation --- Financial Instruments --- Financial services industry --- Fintech --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- General issues --- Government and the Monetary System --- Industries: Financial Services --- Industries: Information Technololgy --- Information technology industries --- Innovation --- Institutional Investors --- Intellectual Property Rights: General --- Monetary Systems --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Payment Systems --- Pension Funds --- Regimes --- Research and Development --- Standards --- Technological Change --- Technological Change: Choices and Consequences --- Technological innovations --- Technology --- Virtual currencies --- United States
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Digitalization is reshaping economic activity, shrinking the role of cash, and spurring new digital forms of money. Central banks have been pondering wheter and how to adapt. One possibility is central bank digital currency (CBDC)-- a widely accessible digital form of fiat money that could be legal tender. This discussion note proposes a conceptual framework to assess the case for CBDC adoption from the perspective of users and central banks. It discusses possible CBDC designs, and explores potential benefits and costs, with a focus on the impact on monetary policy, financial stability, and integrity. This note also surveys research and pilot studies on CBDC by central banks around the world.
Bank deposits --- Banking --- Banks and Banking --- Banks and banking --- Banks --- Central Bank digital currencies --- Central bank policy rate --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Commercial banks --- Credit --- Currencies --- Depository Institutions --- Distributed ledgers --- Financial institutions --- Financial services industry --- Financial services --- Government and the Monetary System --- Industries: Financial Services --- Interest rates --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Monetary economics --- Monetary Policy --- Monetary Systems --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Money Multipliers --- Money Supply --- Money --- Mortgages --- Payment Systems --- Regimes --- Standards --- Technological innovations --- Technology --- China, People's Republic of
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Cross-border payments can be slow, expensive, and risky. They are intermediated by counterparties in different jurisdictions which rely on costly trusted relationships to offset the lack of a common settlement asset as well as common rules and governance. In this paper, we present a vision for a multilateral platform that could improve cross-border payments, as well as related foreign exchange transactions, risk sharing, and more generally, financial contracting. The approach is to leverage technological innovations for public policy objectives. A common ledger, smart contracts, and encryption offer significant gains to market efficiency, completeness, and access, as well as to transparency, transaction and compliance costs, and safety. This paper is a first step aiming to stimulate further work in this space.
Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Industries: Financial Services --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Finance: General --- Foreign Exchange --- Accounting --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Demand for Money --- International Financial Markets --- International Finance: General --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Public Administration --- Public Sector Accounting and Audits --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Computer applications in industry & technology --- Monetary economics --- Finance --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Financial reporting, financial statements --- Smart contracts --- Technology --- Currencies --- Money --- Currency markets --- Financial markets --- Financial statements --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Financial services industry --- Technological innovations --- Foreign exchange market --- Finance, Public --- United States
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Cross-border payments can be slow, expensive, and risky. They are intermediated by counterparties in different jurisdictions which rely on costly trusted relationships to offset the lack of a common settlement asset as well as common rules and governance. In this paper, we present a vision for a multilateral platform that could improve cross-border payments, as well as related foreign exchange transactions, risk sharing, and more generally, financial contracting. The approach is to leverage technological innovations for public policy objectives. A common ledger, smart contracts, and encryption offer significant gains to market efficiency, completeness, and access, as well as to transparency, transaction and compliance costs, and safety. This paper is a first step aiming to stimulate further work in this space.
United States --- Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Industries: Financial Services --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Finance: General --- Foreign Exchange --- Accounting --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Demand for Money --- International Financial Markets --- International Finance: General --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Public Administration --- Public Sector Accounting and Audits --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Computer applications in industry & technology --- Monetary economics --- Finance --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Financial reporting, financial statements --- Smart contracts --- Technology --- Currencies --- Money --- Currency markets --- Financial markets --- Financial statements --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Financial services industry --- Technological innovations --- Foreign exchange market --- Finance, Public
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This fintech note looks at how capital flow measures (CFMs) could be implemented with central bank digital currency (CBDC), and what benefits, risks and complexities could arise. There are several implications of the analysis. First, CBDC ecosystems should generally be designed such that they can accommodate the introduction of CFMs. Second, thanks to the programmability of the payment infrastructure given by the new digital technologies, certain CFMs could likely be implemented more efficiently and effectively with CBDC compared to the traditional system. Third, implementing CFMs requires central banks to collaborate on practices and standards. Finally, CFMs on CBDC need to operate alongside traditional CFMs.
Balance of payments --- Banks and banking, Central --- Business and Financial --- Capital flow management --- Capital flows --- Capital movements --- Central Bank digital currencies --- Digital wallets --- Distributed ledgers --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economic sectors --- Economics of specific sectors --- Economics: General --- Exports and Imports --- External position --- Financial services industry --- Financial services law & regulation --- Financial technology (fintech) --- Foreign assets --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- Globalization: General --- Government and the Monetary System --- Industries: Financial Services --- International economics --- International Investment --- Investments, Foreign --- Law and legislation --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: General --- Macroeconomics --- Monetary Systems --- Payment Systems --- Regimes --- Standards --- Technological innovations --- Technology