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Trade theories covering Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) are as diverse as the literature in search of their empirical support. To account for the model uncertainty that surrounds the validity of the competing PTA theories, we introduce Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to the PTA literature. BMA minimizes the sum of Type I and Type II error, the mean squared error, and generates predictive distributions with optimal predictive performance. Once model uncertainty is addressed as part of the empirical strategy, we report clear evidence of Trade Creation, Trade Diversion, and Open Bloc effects. After controlling for natural trading partner effects, Trade Creation is weaker - except for the EU. To calculate the actual effects of PTAs on trade flows we show that the analysis must be comprehensive: it must control for Trade Creation and Diversion as well as all possible PTAs. Several prominent control variables are also shown to be robustly related to Trade Creation; they relate to factor endowments and economic policy.

International trade --- Commercial treaties --- Tariff preferences --- Differential duty --- Discriminating duty --- Generalized system of preferences (Tariff) --- GSP (Tariff) --- Preferences, Tariff --- Preferential duty --- Preferential tariff --- Trade preferences --- Tariff --- Trade agreements (Commerce) --- Competition, International --- Foreign trade regulation --- Treaties --- Reciprocity (Commerce) --- Econometric models. --- Exports and Imports --- Econometrics --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Bayesian Analysis: General --- International economics --- Bayesian inference --- Trade balance --- Trade agreements --- Plurilateral trade --- North American Free Trade Agreement --- Customs unions --- Bayesian models --- Econometric analysis --- Balance of trade --- Protectionism --- Econometric models --- Chile

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Zonder onderwerpscode: economie

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International economic relations --- Economic policy, Foreign --- Economic relations, Foreign --- Economics, International --- Foreign economic policy --- Foreign economic relations --- Interdependence of nations --- International economic policy --- International economics --- New international economic order --- Economic policy --- International relations --- Economic sanctions --- E-books --- International economic relations. --- Social Sciences and Humanities. Economics --- Economics (General). --- 337 --- 339.9 --- Internationale economie

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Forecasts in Times of Crises.

E-books