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This paper analyzes the weak growth performance in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region during 1980-2000 using an empirical model of long-run growth. The relative importance of the factors affecting growth is shown to vary across 16 MENA countries. In GCC countries, where oil revenues are significant, large governments appear to have been a key factor stifling private-sector growth and impeding diversification. In other MENA countries poor institutional quality has held back growth. Political instability is also shown to have played a role. While the MENA region's growth differential with east Asia is explained well in the 1980s, this is less so in the 1990s.

Economic development --- Econometric models. --- Middle East --- Africa, North --- Economic conditions. --- Investments: Energy --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- Economywide Country Studies: Asia including Middle East --- Energy: General --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Capacity --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Investment & securities --- International economics --- Oil --- Total factor productivity --- Income --- Terms of trade --- Government consumption --- Commodities --- National accounts --- International trade --- Petroleum industry and trade --- Industrial productivity --- Economic policy --- nternational cooperation --- Consumption --- Economics --- Iran, Islamic Republic of --- Nternational cooperation

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This paper establishes that output volatility and the size of output drops have declined across all countries over the past three decades, but remain considerably higher in developing countries than in industrial countries. The paper employs a Bayesian latent dynamic factor model to decompose output growth into global, regional, and country-specific components. The favorable trends in output volatility and large output drops in developing countries are found to result from lower country-specific volatility and more benign country-specific events. Evidence from cross-section regressions over the 1970-2003 period suggest that discretionary fiscal spending volatility, and terms of trade volatility together with exchange rate flexibility are key determinants of volatility and large output drops.

Exports and Imports --- Finance: General --- Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Macroeconomics: Production --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Fiscal Policy --- Finance --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- International economics --- Production growth --- Emerging and frontier financial markets --- Exchange rate flexibility --- Terms of trade --- Fiscal policy --- Production --- Economic theory --- Financial services industry --- Economic policy --- nternational cooperation --- China, People's Republic of --- Industrial productivity --- Nternational cooperation

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The analysis in this paper suggests that import and export volume elasticities are markedly lower in oil-exporting Middle East and Central Asian countries than in non-oil countries in the region. A key implication of this finding is that a real appreciation of the exchange rate in oil-exporting countries would achieve little in terms of expenditure switching: an appreciation does not boost imports and non-oil exports constitute only a small share of GDP and total trade in these countries. Therefore, while a real appreciation lowers the current account surplus of oil-exporting countries through valuation effects, the contribution to lowering global imbalances may be more limited.

Elasticity (Economics) --- Econometric models. --- Coefficient of elasticity --- Demand elasticity --- Elasticity, Coefficient of --- Elasticity of demand --- Price elasticity of demand --- Demand (Economic theory) --- Economics --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Trade: General --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- International economics --- Trade balance --- Export prices --- Exports --- Import prices --- Imports --- Balance of trade --- Saudi Arabia

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A large data set on trade in manufactured products is used to evaluate the performance of a model that combines both the Ricardian and Heckscher-Ohlin effects and incorporates monopolistic competition. The paper estimates a relation implied by the model to explain relative sectoral exports of major countries to a number of important markets, using 1970-90 data for nine manufacturing sectors. The relation fits the data well and variables suggested by both traditional and new trade models play an important role in explaining relative exports.

Exports and Imports --- Finance: General --- Production and Operations Management --- Neoclassical Models of Trade --- Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies --- Trade: General --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Capacity --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Macroeconomics --- International economics --- Finance --- Exports --- Total factor productivity --- Productivity --- Trade barriers --- Competition --- International trade --- Financial markets --- Industrial productivity --- Commercial policy --- United States

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Research shows that international trade is an important channel for the transfer of technology. Building on this evidence, this paper examines the effects of inter- and intraindustry trade on technology transfer. The paper develops and tests the hypothesis that intraindustry trade stimulates more technology transfer than interindustry trade because countries are likely to absorb foreign technologies more easily when their imports are from the same sectors as their production and export sectors. The results of empirical tests for 87 countries during 1970–93 support this hypothesis.

Exports and Imports --- Information Management --- Production and Operations Management --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Capacity --- Trade: General --- Technological Change: Choices and Consequences --- Diffusion Processes --- Innovation --- Research and Development --- Technological Change --- Intellectual Property Rights: General --- Macroeconomics --- International economics --- Knowledge management --- Technology --- general issues --- Total factor productivity --- Imports --- Technology transfer --- Exports --- International trade --- Industrial productivity --- Malta --- General issues