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The halving of oil prices, which happened in a short period between late 2014 and the first months of 2015, has generated major terms of trade losses for oil exporting countries. Even if the oil producing sector normally employs a small group of workers and oil export revenues tend to be concentrated in a few firms and in government accounts, these relative price changes have economy-wide effects and significant distributive impacts. This paper describes and quantifies the channels of transmission from the drop in oil prices, to changes in welfare distribution at the household level. Using a macro-micro simulation model, the paper assesses how this shock affects poverty, inequality, and shared prosperity for the case of the Russian Federation. The oil price reduction generates a reverse Dutch disease that impacts sectoral employment, factor returns, and consumption prices. It causes a contraction of employment and wages in more skill-intensive (non-tradable) sectors, and a reduction in consumption prices that is more pronounced for nonfood than for food goods. When these shifts are mapped to changes in incomes at the micro level, all households are affected. Poverty rates could increase by 1 to 4 percentage points, depending on the poverty line used. At the USD 10 a day threshold, for example, 4.1 million additional people fall into poverty. Along the consumption distribution, richer people are affected more than those in the bottom 40 percent. However, this minor progressive impact may be reversed due to increases in unemployment and cuts in social programs (transfers).

Inequality --- Macro-Micro Simulation --- Poverty --- Shared Prosperity --- Terms Of Trade

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Using a partially constructed panel database of 48 Sub-Saharan African countries from 2000 to 2013, this paper analyzes the structure of housing finance in Africa, its determinants, and its impact on inclusive growth. The findings show that market capitalization and urbanization are key positive determinants of housing finance, and the post-conflict environment is conductive to greater housing finance development. This result suggests that housing finance is driven by standard market forces of demand and supply. In addition, the analysis finds that housing finance development in Africa is not yet an effective tool for reducing economic inequality, at its current, very early stage. However, the paper shows that above a given threshold, housing finance could be efficient at reducing inequality. Finally, there is a slightly positive relationship between housing finance and greater economic development in Africa. All these findings suggest that policies to boost housing finance development in Africa would be fruitful in the medium to long terms.

Housing Finance --- Inclusive Growth --- Inequality And Shared Prosperity

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The World Bank has recently adopted a target of reducing the proportion of population living below USD 1.25 a day at 2005 international prices to 3 percent by 2030. This paper reviews different projection methods and estimates the global poverty rate of 2030 modifying Ravallion (2013)'s approach in that it introduces country-specific economic and population growth rates and takes into account the effect of changes in within-country inequality. This paper then identifies key obstacles to meeting the target and proposes a simple intermediate growth target under which the global poverty rate can be reduced to 3 percent by 2030. The findings of the analysis lend support to Basu (2013)'s argument that accelerating growth is not enough and sharing prosperity within and across countries is essential to end extreme poverty in one generation.

Extreme Poverty --- Inequality --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Poverty Reduction --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Shared Prosperity

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Today 60 percent of Moroccans reside in urban areas, as opposed to 35 percent in 1970. By 2050, nearly three-quarters of the country's population will be living in cities. Along with the concentration of people, urbanization will lead to the increasing concentration of economic activities in cities, which today are estimated to account for about 75 percent of the country's GDP and 70 percent of investments at the national level. To accompany these transformations, the Moroccan government has adopted, in recent years, ambitious programs to improve living standards in urban and rural areas. Significant improvements in living standards have been achieved through national master plans.Cities are the engines of today's demographic and economic growth in Morocco, but they also face persistent challenges. Despite substantial public investments and strong potential for cities to absorb rural poverty, important pockets of urban poverty remain. Spatial disparities are a major cause for concern both for citizens as well as for national and local governments. In addition, Moroccan cities are not delivering on their full potential. Urbanization has not generated the same growth benefits in Morocco as it has in many other countries with similar contexts. These patterns suggest that Morocco needs specific policies to improve returns from its urbanization process.The main message of this note is that urbanization and spatial equity are not competing objectives when urbanization is supported and managed well. Well-managed urbanization allows for economies of scale in the provision of services and the development of more efficient labor. This note identifies priority actions to be taken at national, regional, and local levels to allow public authorities to act within a coherent framework and to help urban development to boost economic growth and promote shared prosperity for all.

Agglomeration Economies --- Development --- Inclusive Development --- Interventions --- Land --- Land Management --- Poverty --- Shared Prosperity --- Spatial Inequalities --- Urbanization --- Youth

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On October 15, 2015, World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim announced the World Bank Group's commitment to support the 78 poorest countries to implement a multi-topic household survey every three years between 2016 and 2030, for monitoring progress toward ending extreme poverty and boosting shared prosperity. This paper estimates the resource requirements to achieve the objectives of implementing 390 surveys across 78 International Development Association countries from 2016 to 2030, and providing direct technical assistance to the national statistical offices on all facets of survey design, implementation, and dissemination toward timely production of quality household survey data. The approach to the costing exercise is unique, as it makes use of detailed data on actual survey implementation and technical assistance costs from a group of countries, unlike previous attempts at costing household survey data gaps. The required total budget, in accordance with the survey design features recommended by the World Bank Household Survey Strategy, is estimated at USD 945 million for the period of 2016-2030. Of this, USD 692 million is projected to cover the survey implementation costs across 78 countries, and USD 253 million is projected to cover the costs of direct technical assistance to be provided to the national statistical offices.

Household Survey Costing --- Household Surveys --- Inequality And Shared Prosperity Measurement And Analysis --- International Development Association --- Poverty Measurement And Analysis