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MNEs. --- R&D. --- R&D spillovers.
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A common concern with efforts to directly help some small businesses to grow is that their growth comes at the expense of their unassisted competitors. This study tests this possibility using a two-stage randomized experiment in Kenya. The experiment randomizes business training at the market level, and then within markets to selected businesses. Three years after training, the treated businesses are selling more, earn higher profits, and their owners have higher well-being. There is no evidence of negative spillovers on the competing businesses, and the markets as a whole appear to have grown in terms of number of customers and sales volumes. This market growth appears to come from enhanced customer service and new product introduction, generating more customers and more sales from existing customers. As a result, business growth in underdeveloped markets is possible without taking sales away from nontreated businesses.
Business Training --- Market Development --- Microenterprise --- Spillovers
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The seven largest emerging market economies-China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia, and Turkey-constituted more than one-quarter of global output and more than half of global output growth during 2010-15. These emerging markets, called EM7, are also closely integrated with other countries, especially with other emerging and frontier markets. Given their size and integration, growth in EM7 could have significant cross-border spillovers. The authors provide empirical estimates of these spillovers using a Bayesian vector autoregression model. They report three main results. First, spillovers from EM7 are sizeable: a 1 percentage point increase in EM7 growth is associated with a 0.9 percentage point increase in growth in other emerging and frontier markets and a 0.6 percentage point increase in world growth at the end of three years. Second, sizeable as they are, spillovers from EM7 are still smaller than those from G7 countries (Group of Seven of advanced economies). Specifically, growth in other emerging and frontier markets, and the global economy would increase by one-half to three times more due to a similarly sized increase in G7 growth. Third, among the EM7, spillovers from China are the largest and permeate globally.
Business Cycles --- Em7 --- Emerging Markets --- Externalshocks --- G7 --- Spillovers
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This paper assesses two research questions: has the presence of foreign firms contributed to productivity increases in Turkey, and how could Turkey increase foreign direct investment inflows? First, the analysis applies dynamic regressions in differences over an AMADEUS firm-level data set. Similar to the results for other emerging countries, Turkish firms that received foreign direct investment will see an increase in productivity after the fourth year. The paper finds evidence of negative but small competition spillovers over domestic firms in the same sector of the multinational, as well as positive and large knowledge spillovers to domestic firms in broader two-digit sectors. This finding constitutes a case for foreign direct investment attraction policies in Turkey. Second, based on the findings of the cross-country regressions, the paper argues that Turkey could increase its attractiveness to foreign investors by strengthening institutional quality, in particular the rule of law, and mitigating exchange rate volatility.
Determinants of FDI --- Foreign Direct Investment --- Knowledge Spillovers
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This paper measures the causal effects of parent enrollment into voluntary health insurance on healthcare utilization among insured and uninsured children in Nicaragua. The study utilizes a randomized trial and age-eligibility cut-off in which insurance subsidies were randomly allocated to parents that covered their dependent children under 12; children ages 12 and older were not eligible for coverage. Among eligible children, the insurance increased utilization at covered providers by 0.56 visits and increased overall utilization by 1.3 visits. Ineligible children with insured parents experienced 1.7 fewer healthcare visits, driven by parent, not sibling enrollment. The results suggest complementarities across healthcare provider type, and provide evidence that households reallocate resources across all members, in response to changes in healthcare prices for some.
Children --- Complementarities --- Health Insurance --- Randomized Controlled Trial --- Spillovers
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The diffusion of knowledge plays a central role in endogenous growth theories. Simply put, in these models new knowledge can be generated from preexisting knowledge. In other words, existing knowledge is a pure public good, which can benefit any economic agent anywhere. More generally, endogenous growth theories rely on a broad set of assumptions that have not been tested sufficiently, especially for developing economies. The scope and nature of knowledge spillovers is, however, important for policy, because the presumed positive spillovers can justify government intervention (if the spillovers are localized) or laissez faire (if the spillovers are international). This paper empirically assesses the scope and direction of knowledge spillovers in national patenting and, separately, product innovation by firms. The first set of exercises tests whether the cumulative knowledge specifications of the knowledge production function can explain international patterns of patenting or whether own research and development is necessary to produce patents. The second set of exercises analyzes whether firm product-quality upgrading and the introduction of new products depend on product innovation within industries, within or across countries. The evidence supports the view that existing stocks of knowledge, domestic and foreign, enhance national innovation and entrepreneurship in the form of product innovation. More specifically, the evidence suggests that within-country and international knowledge spillovers are positive, but international spillovers can be negative for firms that are far from innovative firms in terms of productivity. The results depend on the concept of "distance" between countries and firms.
Endogenous Growth --- Industry --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Patent Production Function --- Product Innovation --- Spillovers
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When potential beneficiaries share their knowledge and attitudes about a policy intervention, their decision to participate and the effectiveness of both the policy and its evaluation may be influenced. This matters most notably in integrated social policies with several components. In this article, spillover effects on take-up behaviors are investigated in the context of a conditional cash transfer program in rural Mexico. These effects are identified using exogenous variations in the local frequency of beneficiaries generated by the program's randomized evaluation. A higher treatment density in the areas surrounding the evaluation villages is found to increase the take-up of scholarships and enrollment at the lower-secondary level. These cross-village spillovers operate exclusively within households receiving another component of the program, and do not carry over larger distances. While several tests reject heterogeneities in impact due to spatial variations in program implementation, evidence is found suggesting that spillovers stem partly from the sharing of information about the program among eligible households.
Conditional Cash Transfers --- Knowledge Spillovers --- Policy Evaluation --- Social Policy --- Spatial Externalities --- Take-Up
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This paper analyzes the spillover effects of U.S. monetary policy announcements on emerging market economies since end-2008, the period coinciding with the use of unconventional policy measures. Monetary policy surprises are measured by changes in two-year Treasury yields in short windows of time around the Federal Reserve Board's policy announcements. The analysis finds that U.S. monetary policy surprises have a significant impact on emerging economies' exchange rates, equity prices, and bond yields. The impact is larger for surprise tightening of policy than for surprise easing. The impact is disproportionately larger for large surprises, implying that emerging markets are relatively insulated from anticipated policy announcements. The spillover effects of policy announcements of other advanced economies, such as the euro area, Japan, and United Kingdom, are found to be much weaker than those of the United States.
Asset Prices --- Emerging Markets --- Federal Open Market Committee --- Fomc --- International Spillovers --- Monetary Policy
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This paper analyzes the export performance of Polish manufacturing firms. It focuses on the extensive and intensive margins of exports, on the decision to enter export markets and the intensity of exports, given participation, examining price and non-price determinants of export performance. The analysis relies on two different but complementary sources of data: a panel survey of Polish firms for 2005-13, and an exporter-level customs data set, for the same period, with detailed information on products and destinations. The findings reveal that firms face high sunk costs for entering export markets, and that once these costs have been paid, they depreciate rapidly over time. Strong positive local spillovers are also identified, which help reduce entry costs. Finally, the paper shows that the impact of real exchange rate fluctuations on firms' export performance is dependent of the degree of integration in international production networks.
Export Performance --- International Production Networks --- Liquidity --- Productivity --- R&D --- Real Exchange Rates --- Spillovers --- Sunk Costs --- Transition Economies
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This paper investigates whether the agglomeration of economic activity in regional clusters affects long-run manufacturing total factor productivity growth in an emerging market context. It explores a large firm-level panel dataset for Chile during a period characterized by high growth rates and rising regional income inequality (1992-2004). The findings are clear-cut. Locations with greater concentration of a particular sector did not experience faster growth in total factor productivity during this period. Rather, local sector diversity was associated with higher long-run growth in total factor productivity. However, there is no evidence that the diversity effect was driven by the local interaction with a set of suppliers and/or clients. The authors interpret this as evidence that agglomeration economies are driven by other factors, such as the sharing of access to specialized inputs not provided solely by a single sector, such as skills or financing.
Achieving Shared Growth --- Agglomeration Economies --- Economic Growth --- Economic Theory & Research --- International Economics & Trade --- Knowledge Spillovers --- Labor Policies --- Local Growth --- Political Economy --- Total Factor Productivity Growth --- Chile
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